Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2026 
 
The updated March 2026 outlook is adjusted after reviewing the latest dynamical 
model guidance across time scales from the short-range to the subseasonal-range 
as well as the latest status of the MJO and conditions in the stratosphere. The 
most current land surface states such as soil moisture and snowpack also played 
a role in the updated outlook. 
 
The latest inspection of the MJO strength and phase and model forecasts 
continues to show considerable uncertainty. Anomalous tropical convection and 
wind fields in the Indo-Pacific region continues to be impacted by other 
coherent subseasonal variability other than the MJO (i.e., atmospheric Kelvin 
and Equatorial Rossby waves) as well as a somewhat more persistent mode. In 
addition, model forecasts of the RMM index vary considerably from more 
organized eastward propagation and moderate amplitude for the NCEP models (i.e. 
CFS, GEFS) to weaker less organized predictions from ECMWF. The signals  from 
dynamical model guidance during the first half of March are consistent and 
strong for both temperature and precipitation for the U.S., it is unclear 
whether any teleconnection from the Tropics, if it were to occur, would have a 
substantial impact on the circulation later in the month and so the eventual 
observed monthly mean temperature and total precipitation amounts. 
 
Although a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is forecast by both the GEFS and 
ECMWF in early March, it is predicted to be short-lived and current forecasts 
for the next two weeks of polar cap 500-hPa height anomalies do not strongly 
indicate a connection to the troposphere at this time. Consistent with this are 
forecasts of a +AO index over at least the next two weeks. 
 
Below-normal soil moisture conditions associated with areas of severe and 
extreme drought in the lower CONUS contribute to some degree to probabilities 
of above-normal temperatures. Remaining snowpack in some areas (Upper Peninsula 
of Michigan and the Northeast) increase uncertainty in the temperature forecast 
and temper odds for above-normal temperatures in these areas as does a few days 
of below-normal temperatures at the start of the month. A constructed analogue 
forecast based on soil moisture conditions also indicates a slight tilt towards 
below-normal temperatures in the Northeast. 
 
The temperature outlook is largely unchanged from the previous mid-month 
outlook with the continued main message being favored above-normal temperatures 
for most of the CONUS. Forecast coverage of above-normal temperatures is 
increased across some areas of the northern tier of the CONUS including the 
Northeast. Previously forecast small areas of favored below-normal temperatures 
are removed and a reduction in the odds of warmer than normal conditions is 
applied for the west-central U.S. due to favored troughing at times during the 
first half of the month. The highest odds for above-normal temperatures is 
shifted slightly eastward now focusing across the central and southern 
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and Southeast. 
 
Robust troughing, lower 500-hPa heights and so anomalous northerly mean flow 
favors below-normal temperatures for most of Alaska, although confidence is 
lower along the northern and western coastal areas of the state. The forecast 
is mainly unchanged from the previous outlook. 
 
For precipitation, the updated outlook also remains consistent - to first order 
- with the previous mid-month outlook. Medium- and extended-range dynamical 
model guidance strongly supports a significant increase in probabilities and 
coverage for the previously highlighted above-normal precipitation region in 
the Ohio Valley, central Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. The region is 
increased to extend from the southern Plains to most of the Mississippi Valley, 
all of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and far western parts of the 
mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High odds are forecast for the central Mississippi 
Valley and Ohio Valley. Favored below-normal precipitation remains for the 
extreme Southeast and most of Florida, while elevated odds for below-normal 
precipitation across the western U.S. in the previous outlook has been reduced 
in coverage in the update. 
 
The Alaska precipitation outlook is one of low confidence. Equal Chances (EC) 
for either of the three categories is forecast for most of the state with the 
exception of a slight tilt toward above- (below-) normal precipitation for 
Southeast Alaska and an area in the central portion of the state, respectively. 
 
 
******************************************************************************** 
****** Previous mid-month discussion ****** 
******************************************************************************** 
 
A major pattern shift occurred across the greater North America region just 
prior to the middle of February. High latitude blocking and penetrations of 
Arctic air in various regions of the mid-latitudes of the northern Hemisphere 
(i.e. strong -AO projection) dominated the second half of January and early 
February. The strong block impacting the far north Atlantic-Greenland region, 
etc. dissipated and allowed more progressive flow and an easing of the strong 
trough across eastern North America. In mid February, troughing replaced a 
persistent ridge near the West coast of North America and this has resulted in 
a much more stormy, active pattern across much of the CONUS. 
 
Extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance indicates the continuation of a 
progressive pattern entering early March with a northward shifted storm track 
across the CONUS to first order - consistent with a +AO and -PNA - quite 
opposite of what was observed in early-mid February. Positive 500-hPa height 
departures associated with northward shifted westerlies and more air of 
Pacific, maritime origin entering the CONUS supports primarily above-normal 
temperatures for much of the interior U.S. as forecast by ECMWF, GEFS and JMA 
subseasonal model guidance into mid-March. 
 
The forecast in the extended range and into early March is reasonably 
consistent with La Nina conditions - ridging/blocking in the north Pacific near 
the Date Line and troughing downstream along the coast of western North America 
- as anomalous enhanced convection remains observed near Indonesia. The MJO has 
not been all that coherent in recent weeks as other modes of coherent tropical 
subseasonal variability have focused the anomalous enhanced convection at the 
Maritime continent. Model RMM forecasts are mixed with any MJO strengthening 
and organized eastward propagation. The ECMWF forecast is for no clear 
organized signal, while the GEFS indicates some potential eastward propagation 
but with large forecast spread. The state of the MJO will be reviewed prior to 
the end of the month update. Other factors considered in preparation of the 
outlook are potential remaining snowpack in parts of the Northeast, extensive 
severe and extreme drought conditions for much of the Southeast U.S. and 
southern Great Plains and the snow drought along the northern tier of the U.S. 
from the northern and central Plains eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley 
and western Great Lakes. 
 
The above climate factors and extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance 
support favored above-normal temperatures for much of the CONUS for areas of 
the southern Far West, Southwest, most of the Rockies eastward to include the 
majority of the central CONUS and Ohio Valley and Southeast U.S. The highest 
odds for above-normal temperatures are forecast for portions of the 
south-central Plains and Mississippi Valley where the majority of forecast 
guidance and tools are in best agreement. Odds for above-normal temperatures 
are less for parts of the western U.S. with a small area of slightly elevated 
odds for below-normal temperatures highlighted for parts of the Pacific 
Northwest. A sharp demarcation in the forecast anomalous height pattern in 
central North America may allow colder air intrusions into the northern U.S. 
and so a narrow region of slightly favored below-normal temperatures is 
highlighted for parts of the northern Plains at this time. Equal-Chances (EC) 
for above-, near-, and below-normal monthly mean temperatures is forecast for 
the Northeast where some troughing and snowpack increases uncertainty. 
 
Strong ridging forecast by model guidance west of Alaska supports an amplified 
trough over much of the state with strong anomalous northerly flow and so 
below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of Alaska. For northern and 
northwestern Alaska, trends  in below-normal sea ice coverage and above-normal 
near coast SSTs keep these areas EC for the mid-month outlook, although this 
forcing is considerably weaker this February than in previous years. 
 
For precipitation, a northward shifted storm track entering March as indicated 
by extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance favors below-normal 
precipitation from central California southward and eastward to the central and 
southern High Plains. Current above-normal precipitation across the west is 
forecast to shift north in the coming week and elevated probabilities for 
above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest eastward along 
and just south of the Canadian border. This area meets another region of 
favored above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley 
consistent with residual La Nina and potential MJO influenced precipitation, 
along with favored below-normal precipitation in the extreme Southeast CONUS. 
Anticipated anomalous northerly flow across Alaska favors a slight tilt toward 
below-normal precipitation for areas of central and southern Mainland Alaska. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Apr ... will be issued on Thu Mar 19 2026 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
$$