Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2026 
 
The November 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are updated 
considering monthly Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) temperature and 
precipitation forecasts, as well as information from an experimental monthly 
calibrated version of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12), and 
information from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) 
model for the month of November. We also consider shorter term guidance and 
official Outlooks across the month, including days 1 to 7 precipitation, 
extended-range (6-10 Day and Week-2) tools and Outlooks, and subseasonal (Weeks 
3-4) tools and Outlooks. The ongoing El Nino remains the dominant 
teleconnection to influence this forecast, overshadowing any potential impacts 
of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) despite an amplifying MJO signal that 
recently progressed eastward over the Indian Ocean basin, and the potential for 
continued eastward propagation in dynamical model forecasts. Adding to the 
uncertainty of this forecast, model forecasts indicate the potential for a 
stratospheric polar vortex disruption and a possible transition into a sudden 
stratospheric warming (SSW) next week. A November SSW is very rare, and should 
this occur, impacts can be seen for up to 2 months, usually manifesting as a 
negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase, which can already be seen in models. A 
negative AO is in contrast with the forecasted phase of the Pacific-North 
American (PNA) pattern, which is more in alignment with El Nino. These factors 
add some uncertainty to the eastern U.S., where some of the potential impacts 
of a SSW and negative AO compete with those from El Nino. 
 
Toward the early part of November, above-average heights are forecast across 
Canada and northern parts of the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Over the 
southern states, the pattern is more transient with weaker and progressive 
troughing forecast to move across the southern part of the CONUS. By 
mid-November, troughing off the West Coast is forecast to strengthen and move 
toward the coast, causing the ridging downstream to build and expand further 
southward and eastward. Late in the month, weeks 3-4 guidance favors 
persistence of the northern CONUS ridging. Troughing remains present off the 
West Coast of the US, and there is some potential for troughing to settle over 
the Southeast by the end of the month as well; however, models are uncertain on 
placement and strength. Overall, the beginning to middle of November is 
characterized by above average heights over the north, an active southern tier 
with progressive troughing, and below average heights to the west and east of 
the CONUS. By the end of November, the mid-level height pattern resembles a 
classic El Nino response. The pattern of strong troughing off the West Coast 
with ridging over Canada and northern parts of the CONUS leads to generally 
increasing 500 hPa height anomalies from south to north across Alaska by 
mid-to-late November, but the evolution becomes more uncertain as the month 
progresses. 
 
The updated November Temperature Outlook resembles the initial November Outlook 
in terms of the broad pattern of enhanced above-normal probabilities across the 
northern CONUS and along both coasts. However, there are some key changes in 
the updated Temperature Outlook, including expansion of above-normal 
temperatures across the state of Alaska, increased coverage of above-normal 
temperatures over the CONUS, reaching further south and covering more of the 
Southeast, and expansion of 50 to 60% probabilities of above-normal 
temperatures across the northern tier. The persistent ridging forecast 
throughout the month of November supports the increased coverage and 
strengthening of probabilities over the northern tier. Monthly CFSv2 forecasts 
depict high probabilities (greater than 75%) across Alaska, the northern CONUS, 
and the Southeast. However, probabilities are weaker in shorter-term tools, the 
experimental GEFSv12 and ECMWF, and the potential for cooler periods linked to 
the SSW and negative AO warrant lower probabilities than CFSv2. Transient 
guidance over the southern tier increases uncertainty early in the month, and 
equal-chances of above-, near-, and below-normal (EC) temperatures are 
indicated where guidance diverges the most. The potential late-month Southeast 
CONUS troughing reduces probabilities there, however, monthly guidance still 
agrees on a tilt toward above-normal temperatures. The highest confidence (60 
to 70% chances) is located over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi 
Valley, aligned with persistent ridging and strong model agreement. While the 
updated Precipitation Outlook favors above-normal precipitation in that region 
which may lead to some cooling, this precipitation is expected to fall early in 
November. Though there is some uncertainty over western parts of Alaska, the 
pattern and above-average SSTs to the south generally support above-normal 
temperatures for the month. 
 
Larger changes were made to the updated November Precipitation Outlook to 
account for the potential for early-November precipitation across parts of the 
Southwest, Central and Northern Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley. Since 
these regions are generally dry, it is much easier for short-lived early 
November precipitation to tilt the Outlook for the month to above-normal. Days 
1 to 7 QPF indicates upper-tercile accumulations across parts of the Southwest 
and the Central and Northern Plains. Supported by monthly CFSv2, GEFSv12, and 
ECMWF guidance, above-normal precipitation probabilities are raised to 60% in 
the Southwest, with a 50% tilt across the north-central CONUS. Troughing off 
the Northwest Coast also supports a tilt toward above-normal precipitation 
along much of the West, including the Pacific Northwest, however, timing and 
amount of precipitation is uncertain. Conversely, probabilities are decreased 
across the Southeast and East Coast relative to the initial November Outlook. 
Most tools for the initial November Outlook favored a largely El Nino driven 
response over the Southeast and East Coast. However, the transient pattern for 
at least the first half of November increases uncertainty for the Southeast, 
and early November QPF forecasts are quite dry for much of the East and 
Southeast (except over peninsular Florida). In addition, Week 2 precipitation 
forecasts favor a weak below-normal precipitation probability that covers parts 
of the East and dips into the Southeast, also increasing uncertainty. Some 
moderate probability for above-normal precipitation remains over the Southeast 
given monthly dynamical model forecasts, but probabilities are weaker than the 
initial Outlook. Over Alaska, dynamical models  had more agreement than in the 
initial Outlook and are in agreement with a typical El Nino response over the 
State. 
 
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***** Previous mid-month discussion below ***** 
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The November 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based on 
dynamical models, local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, El Nino 
teleconnections, and decadal trends  . Guidance incorporates individual models 
and multi-model ensembles (MME) from the Copernicus Climate System (C3S) and 
the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), alongside probability anomaly 
correlation (PAC) calibrated NMME forecasts and statistical tools blending SSTs 
and trends  . Short-term early November forecasts from the Climate Forecast 
System version 2 (CFSv2), the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 
(GEFSv12), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 
models are utilized, along with monthly forecasts from CFSv2 and the 
experimental beta version of the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) model. El Nino 
is expected to be the dominant climate driver, overshadowing the Madden-Julian 
Oscillation (MJO), though localized SST influences are possible. 
 
Dynamical model forecasts closely align with the expected El Nino 
teleconnection for November. However, short-term fluctuations in the pattern 
can occur, adding to uncertainty in some areas. Furthermore, while current El 
Nino conditions are forecast to strengthen, November can still be a transition 
month for ENSO impacts for some regions, with teleconnections strengthening 
through the winter months. 
 
The November 2026 Temperature Outlook depicts enhanced above-normal 
probabilities across the northern two-thirds of the Contiguous United States 
(CONUS) and along both coasts. Overall, models and tools favor a warmer 
northern tier of the CONUS, particularly over Washington and the interior 
Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes where 
probabilities are highest in the Outlook. Probabilities are damped over Oregon 
due to neutral SST anomalies. However, a southerly gradient toward 
above-average SSTs maintains a tilt toward above-normal along the West Coast. 
Probabilities are also weaker over Montana and North Dakota where diving 
troughs may introduce cooler spells. Inter-model spread increases uncertainty 
over New England and other areas where probabilities are comparatively lower. 
Equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures are 
indicated over the Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley, including parts 
of the Central Plains and Intermountain West. While El Nino typically supports 
below-normal temperatures over the Southern Plains and Southwest, inconsistent 
model signals  regarding the placement and strength of any below-normal 
temperatures prompt a tilt toward EC. For Alaska, enhanced probabilities 
transition from near-normal in the west to above-normal across the east, the 
southeast Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. Monthly models and tools and early 
November dynamical model forecasts are in very good agreement on above-normal 
temperatures over much of eastern Alaska, aligning with El Nino 
teleconnections, long-term temperature trends  , and above-average coastal SSTs 
to the south. Western Alaska carries higher uncertainty, with most models 
showing weakening probabilities, EC, or isolated transitions toward 
below-normal temperatures. This results in an EC forecast for the remainder of 
the state, aside from a small NMME-based near-normal area on the west coast. 
 
The November 2026 Precipitation Outlook indicates enhanced above-normal 
probabilities across much of the southern US and the East Coast, with 
below-normal precipitation favored from the northern Intermountain West into 
parts of the Northern Plains, as well as parts of the Great Lakes. Model 
agreement is exceptionally high over the Southeast, with MMEs showing greater 
than 70% chances of above-normal precipitation in isolated areas. Accordingly, 
60 to 70% probabilities are forecast for parts of the region. The above-normal 
precipitation extends up the East Coast, but increasing inter-model spread over 
New England supports a transition to EC. Similarly, disagreement regarding the 
northward extent of precipitation along the West Coast and central Plains 
results in EC designations, as location is difficult to pinpoint at this lead 
time amid high model spread. The western below-normal precipitation signal 
remains spatially consistent and aligns with El Nino, though some models expand 
it weakly toward the coast. However, uncertainty over the Pacific Northwest 
remains high enough to warrant EC along the coast. The eastern below-normal 
signal is most consistent over the Great Lakes, though some models like CFSv2 
extend it further south toward the Gulf States. Over Alaska, a weak trend-based 
tilt toward below-normal precipitation covers the southwestern mainland and 
parts of the Aleutians, with elevated above-normal chances along the northern 
coast. EC is favored for the rest of the state due to weak, inconsistent model 
signals and November's status as an ENSO transition month before below-normal 
teleconnections become prevalent later in winter. 
 
 
FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Dec ... will be issued on Thu Nov 19 2026 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
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