Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2026 
 
The November 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based on 
dynamical models, local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, El Nino 
teleconnections, and decadal trends . Guidance incorporates individual models 
and multi-model ensembles (MME) from the Copernicus Climate System (C3S) and 
the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), alongside probability anomaly 
correlation (PAC) calibrated NMME forecasts and statistical tools blending SSTs 
and trends . Short-term early November forecasts from the Climate Forecast 
System version 2 (CFSv2), the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 
(GEFSv12), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 
models are utilized, along with monthly forecasts from CFSv2 and the 
experimental beta version of the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) model. El Nino 
is expected to be the dominant climate driver, overshadowing the Madden-Julian 
Oscillation (MJO), though localized SST influences are possible. 
 
Dynamical model forecasts closely align with the expected El Nino 
teleconnection for November. However, short-term fluctuations in the pattern 
can occur, adding to uncertainty in some areas. Furthermore, while current El 
Nino conditions are forecast to strengthen, November can still be a transition 
month for ENSO impacts for some regions, with teleconnections strengthening 
through the winter months. 
 
The November 2026 Temperature Outlook depicts enhanced above-normal 
probabilities across the northern two-thirds of the Contiguous United States 
(CONUS) and along both coasts. Overall, models and tools favor a warmer 
northern tier of the CONUS, particularly over Washington and the interior 
Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes where 
probabilities are highest in the Outlook. Probabilities are damped over Oregon 
due to neutral SST anomalies. However, a southerly gradient toward 
above-average SSTs maintains a tilt toward above-normal along the West Coast. 
Probabilities are also weaker over Montana and North Dakota where diving 
troughs may introduce cooler spells. Inter-model spread increases uncertainty 
over New England and other areas where probabilities are comparatively lower. 
Equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures are 
indicated over the Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley, including parts 
of the Central Plains and Intermountain West. While El Nino typically supports 
below-normal temperatures over the Southern Plains and Southwest, inconsistent 
model signals  regarding the placement and strength of any below-normal 
temperatures prompt a tilt toward EC. For Alaska, enhanced probabilities 
transition from near-normal in the west to above-normal across the east, the 
southeast Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. Monthly models and tools and early 
November dynamical model forecasts are in very good agreement on above-normal 
temperatures over much of eastern Alaska, aligning with El Nino 
teleconnections, long-term temperature trends , and above-average coastal SSTs 
to the south. Western Alaska carries higher uncertainty, with most models 
showing weakening probabilities, EC, or isolated transitions toward 
below-normal temperatures. This results in an EC forecast for the remainder of 
the state, aside from a small NMME-based near-normal area on the west coast. 
 
The November 2026 Precipitation Outlook indicates enhanced above-normal 
probabilities across much of the southern US and the East Coast, with 
below-normal precipitation favored from the northern Intermountain West into 
parts of the Northern Plains, as well as parts of the Great Lakes. Model 
agreement is exceptionally high over the Southeast, with MMEs showing greater 
than 70% chances of above-normal precipitation in isolated areas. Accordingly, 
60 to 70% probabilities are forecast for parts of the region. The above-normal 
precipitation extends up the East Coast, but increasing inter-model spread over 
New England supports a transition to EC. Similarly, disagreement regarding the 
northward extent of precipitation along the West Coast and central Plains 
results in EC designations, as location is difficult to pinpoint at this lead 
time amid high model spread. The western below-normal precipitation signal 
remains spatially consistent and aligns with El Nino, though some models expand 
it weakly toward the coast. However, uncertainty over the Pacific Northwest 
remains high enough to warrant EC along the coast. The eastern below-normal 
signal is most consistent over the Great Lakes, though some models like CFSv2 
extend it further south toward the Gulf States. Over Alaska, a weak trend-based 
tilt toward below-normal precipitation covers the southwestern mainland and 
parts of the Aleutians, with elevated above-normal chances along the northern 
coast. EC is favored for the rest of the state due to weak, inconsistent model 
signals and November's status as an ENSO transition month before below-normal 
teleconnections become prevalent later in winter. 
 
 
FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
An updated monthly outlook... for Nov will be issued on Sat October 31 2026 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
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