Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2025 
 
As of the end of October 2025, a La Niña Advisory remains in effect as the 
latest weekly Niño 3.4 index stood at -0.6 degrees Celsius and upper ocean heat 
content in the equatorial Pacific continues to be below normal. Meanwhile an 
active Madden Juilan Oscillation (MJO) signal is present in the Maritime 
Continent and is expected to propagate to the Western Pacific by early to mid 
November (corresponding to phases 5 and 6 in Wheeler-Hendon (WH) phase space). 
Thereafter, uncertainty is high as to if this signal will propagate further 
into WH phase 7 by the end of November. During the latter half of October, the 
North Atlantic Oscillation has been predominantly negative while the Pacific 
North America (PNA) has been mostly positive. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has 
been more variable, oscillating between the negative and positive phases. 
Composites derived from these tropical (ENSO and MJO) and extratropical (NAO, 
PNA, and AO) drivers generally support above normal 500-hPa mean heights across 
much of the western and central Contiguous United States (CONUS) and near to 
below normal heights across much of the Eastern Seaboard. Mean below normal 
heights are generally favored off the coast of Southeast Alaska. Uncertainty is 
high across the remainder of Alaska as MJO and ENSO composites mostly oppose 
each other. All composites generally agree on strong ridging in the eastern 
North Atlantic southeast of Greenland. Dynamical model guidance from the ECMWF, 
GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are generally supportive of the statistical 
composites. The first week of November is predicted to feature a deep trough 
over the Gulf of Alaska, downstream ridging in the western CONUS, and a pair of 
troughs over the Mississippi Valley and near Atlantic Canada. As the week 
progresses, deep troughing is forecast to persist over the Gulf of Alaska and 
impinge on the West Coast of the CONUS. Above normal heights are then forecast 
to overspread the central CONUS as the trough over the Mississippi Valley 
departs. As we approach the middle of November, CPC’s 8-14 day outlook features 
above normal heights across the western half of the CONUS, below normal heights 
across the Northeast, and below normal heights across most of Alaska 
(particularly southwestern parts of the state). Finally, during the second half 
of November, CPC’s Weeks 3-4 Outlook favors a transition to above normal heights 
across much of the East and a continuation of below-normal heights across much 
of Alaska. 
 
Above normal mean temperatures are favored across the western and central CONUS 
as 500-hPa heights are favored to be above normal during much of the month 
across these regions. Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 60 
percent across parts of the Central Rockies and adjacent Great Basin as 
temperatures are forecast to be upwards of 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above 
average during the first week of November. In addition, CPC’s 6-10 day and 
week-2 outlooks indicate that above normal temperatures are likely to continue 
across this area until at least mid-November, which further increases 
confidence in above normal temperatures. Confidence is much lower across the 
Eastern Seaboard as a variable pattern is favored with troughing early in the 
month potentially giving way to near or even above normal heights as the month 
progresses. Due to this potential transitional pattern, equal chances (EC) of 
below, near, or above normal temperatures are forecast across most of the 
Eastern Seaboard. Alaska is also an area where forecast confidence is low. 
Statistical guidance from natural analog composites favor below normal 
temperatures across much of the state. Below normal temperatures are also 
supported by predicted below normal heights depicted by dynamical guidance 
across most of the state (particularly southwestern areas) during much of the 
month. However, at the surface, dynamical model guidance generally favors a 
warmer solution, particularly across southeastern parts of the state. 
Additionally, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently above normal 
adjacent to the south and west coasts of Alaska, which reduces chances of below 
normal temperatures in coastal areas. Due to conflicting statistical and 
dynamical model guidance, EC is forecast across most of western and central 
Alaska. A slight tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for 
Southeast Alaska and much of the eastern Mainland, consistent with CPC’s 6-10 
day and week-2 outlooks. 
 
An active pattern is favored across much of the West Coast of the CONUS and 
southeastern Alaska. Short term guidance as well as CPC’s 6-10, week-2, and 
weeks 3-4 outlooks all favor above normal precipitation for most of these 
areas. Some locations along the West Coast (particularly near the Bay Area) are 
forecast to receive upward of 33 to 50 percent of the normal monthly totals in 
the first week of November alone. For these reasons, above normal precipitation 
is favored along much of the West Coast and adjacent Northern Rockies northward 
to Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern Mainland. 
Conversely, below normal precipitation is more likely across most of the 
southern CONUS. Confidence for below normal precipitation is highest across the 
Southwest and adjacent areas of the Southern High Plains as anomalous ridging 
is forecast to prevail for much of the month. Despite predicted rainfall during 
the first week of the month across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast, a 
slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for the month as a 
whole as a transition to a drier pattern is favored in CPC’s weeks 3-4 outlooks. 
This slight tilt toward dry is extended northward to the Mid-Atlantic as 
surface high pressure dominates early in the month in the wake of a departing 
storm system. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for 
much of the Northeast, consistent with CPC’s 6-10 day, week-2, and weeks 3-4 
outlooks. 
 
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***** Previous mid-month discussion below 
 ***** 
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The November 2025 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Niña 
Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) signal. La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through the 
month of November and beyond. Natural analog composites derived from a nearest 
neighbor analysis of the past 12 months of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface 
Temperature (SST) and Upper Ocean Heat anomalies are supportive of anomalous 
mid-level troughing along the Eastern Seaboard with above normal heights more 
likely for much of the central and western Contiguous United States (CONUS) and 
northern Alaska. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the Real-time Multivariate based 
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index has been weak since early September but 
is showing signs of emerging in the Indian Ocean. Both the Global Ensemble 
Forecast System (GEFS) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather 
Forecasts (ECMWF) predict this emerging MJO event to strengthen and approach 
the Western Pacific by the start of November. Composite analysis of Western 
Pacific MJO events is suggestive of anomalous ridging over much of the western 
and central CONUS early followed by potential troughing across the Northern 
Plains later in the month (if the MJO signal continues its eastward 
propagation). Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic 
Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly 
positive in early October while the Pacific North America (PNA) index has 
largely been negative. All three of these extratropical indices are currently 
in the process of switching phases to the opposite sign from that observed 
earlier in the month. Composites derived from analysis of the recent evolution 
of these extratropical indices favor above normal mid-level heights across the 
higher latitudes of the Western Hemisphere in November, consistent with the 
negative phase of both the AO and NAO and ridging over the southeast, 
suggestive of a return to a negative PNA. Combined natural analog composites 
derived from the recent evolution of tropical and extratropical indices depict 
a 500-hPa flow pattern dominated by above normal heights across much of the 
higher latitudes of the Western Hemisphere and below normal heights farther to 
the south across the northeastern CONUS during the month of November. Weakly 
above normal heights are illustrated across the Lower Mississippi Valley and 
much of the western CONUS. Meanwhile, trends  during the last 15 years favor 
above normal heights across most of Alaska as well as most of the central and 
eastern CONUS, with the exception of the Northern Tier. SSTs are currently 
above normal adjacent to the Western and Central Gulf Coast, Southern Florida, 
the Northeast, California, and much of the south and west coasts of Mainland 
Alaska. Arctic Sea Ice extent is currently below normal but not at record low 
levels. Natural analog composites, trends , and dynamical guidance from the 
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model Ensemble 
(NMME), the Couple Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Forecast 
Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input and 
statistical guidance) form the basis of the November outlooks. The latest CPC 
Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the European Centre 
for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Ensemble Forecast System 
(GEFS), and the CFS also contributed. Antecedent conditions such as 
extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies were also 
considered where appropriate. 
 
Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the western and central 
CONUS, with the exception of the Northern Tier. This tilt toward above normal 
temperatures is consistent with La Niña composites, dynamical model guidance 
from the NMME, C3S, and CFSv2, as well as the official CPC Weeks 3-4 
temperature outlooks. Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 50 
percent for much of the Southern Plains and Southwest, where dynamical model 
guidance and CPC’s Weeks 3-4 outlooks show the most support. Confidence is much 
lower across the Northern Tier as the NMME and CFSv2 show little or no above 
normal temperature signals  for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. 
Additionally, composites from the predicted enhanced MJO signal in the Western 
Pacific are suggestive of a potential cold air outbreak across the Northern 
Plains during the month of November. Combined natural analog composites from 
the current evolution of tropical and extratropical indices are suggestive of a 
mean negative AO pattern in November. Composites from a combined negative AO 
and La Niña state favor colder than normal conditions across the Northern 
Plains, which are at odds with dynamical model guidance such as the C3S. For 
these reasons Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, or below normal temperatures 
are posted for the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, 
Northern Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley. Uncertainty is also high across 
the eastern third of the CONUS as La Niña composites depict a weak or even cold 
signal across parts of the East. Moreover, combined natural analogs  from the 
current evolution of tropical and extratropical drivers are supportive of 
anomalous troughing, particularly over the Northeast. This reduced confidence 
is supported by the NMME, which has a weak temperature signal across much of 
the Eastern Seaboard and from CPC’s Weeks 3-4 outlooks, which has EC across much 
of the Southeast. For these reasons, EC is forecast for most of the Eastern 
Seaboard, Appalachians, Great Lakes, and parts of the Ohio Valley. A slight 
tilt toward above normal temperatures are indicated for parts of southern 
Florida owing largely to observed above normal SSTs in adjacent waters. Despite 
the anomalous troughing suggested by natural analog composites across the 
Northeast, a slight tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for 
areas of Northern New England. This modest tilt toward above normal 
temperatures was posted due to support from recent trends , above normal 
observed SSTs in the adjacent Atlantic, and the CPC Weeks 3-4 outlooks. 
Confidence is low across Alaska as forecast guidance is mixed at best. 
Dynamical model guidance is inconsistent with the NMME offering a weak signal 
across almost the entire state with a tilt toward cold forecast for inland 
areas of the northwestern Mainland while the C3S and CFSv2 are more supportive 
of warmth across most of the state. As a result, the final consolidation of 
dynamical and statistical guidance does not present much in the way of a 
coherent pattern across much of the state. A slight tilt toward above normal 
temperatures is posted for southwestern and northwestern parts of the state, 
consistent with above normal SSTs in adjacent waters and observed below normal 
sea ice extent. 
 
One of the more confident aspects in the precipitation outlook for the month of 
November is the prospect of a drier than normal pattern across the Southeast 
and adjacent areas. The NMME, C3S, and CFSv2, and La Niña composites are all 
supportive of dryness across the Southeast and much of the Mid Atlantic. As a 
result, below normal precipitation is favored across much of the East, with the 
greatest confidence across much of the Southeast. A second area where below 
normal precipitation is favored is across much of the Southwest and Southern 
High Plains due to good agreement among dynamical guidance. Below normal 
precipitation probabilities were kept more modest across the Southwest/Southern 
High Plains than the Southeast as support from statistical guidance is not as 
robust. Conversely, above normal precipitation is favored for the Northern 
Plains and adjacent areas of the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. 
These areas have among the strongest above normal precipitation signals  in the 
combined natural analog composites. Additionally the final consolidation shows 
a wet signal from the Northern High Plains to the Central Plains. The most 
confident above normal precipitation area (greater than 40 percent chance) 
corresponds to this signal in the final consolation combined with natural 
analog composites. The area of favored above normal precipitation extends 
westward from here to include the Pacific Northwest and Northern California due 
largely to La Niña Composites. Most of this area of favored above normal 
precipitation is also consistent with the CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks. As was the 
case with temperature, the precipitation forecast for Alaska is low confidence 
as the NMME has virtually no signal at all for the entire state. Despite this 
uncertainty, an area of modestly enhanced probabilities of above normal 
precipitation was posted for the northwestern Mainland, consistent with the 
final consolidation. 
 
FORECASTER: Scott Handel 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Dec ... will be issued on Thu Nov 20 2025 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
$$