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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2026
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies ranging from -0.5 to +0.5 degrees
Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and
the Big Island) during the previous week .
From January through September 2026, rainfall total accumulations were:
Lihue Airport 45.38 inches (187 percent of average)
Honolulu Airport 23.19 inches (221 percent of average)
Kahului Airport 30.28 inches (281 percent of average)
Hilo Airport 124.43 inches (149 percent of average)
Most climate models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the
International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) predict positive SST anomalies
around the Hawaiian Islands in November 2026. Based on model SST and surface
air temperature forecasts, above-normal temperatures are favored for Kauai
(Lihue), Oahu (Honolulu), Maui (Kahului), and the Big Island (Hilo).
For the October 2026 precipitation outlook, the probability of below-normal
precipitation is elevated for all islands of Hawaii. The outlook is consistent
with most models from the NMME and IMME, as well as the impact of the incoming
El Nino event.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A70 74.4 0.4 B40 8.7 11.4 17.1
Kahului A60 76.0 0.6 B40 1.2 1.8 2.6
Honolulu A60 77.8 0.6 B40 0.9 1.4 2.1
Lihue A50 75.8 0.5 B40 2.6 3.5 5.5
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2026 - NDJ 2027
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the
contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for further description of the El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to
the seasonal outlook.
El Nino conditions are observed over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east-central and
eastern Pacific Ocean. Above-average subsurface temperatures have persisted
across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean in the last two months.
Enhanced convection and precipitation was evident along the equator from
near the Date Line to the eastern Pacific, while suppressed convection and
precipitation was observed over the Philippines, Indonesia, and Papua
New Guinea. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident from the western to
the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean and wind anomalies were easterly over
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly from the
western to the east-central equatorial Pacific and westerly over the
far-eastern equatorial Pacific. El Nino continues to strengthen, with a greater
than 83% chance of a strong-to-very strong El Nino event likely through
January-February-March 2027. The Hawaii Seasonal Outlook for temperature and
precipitation is based primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and
statistical forecasts. The impacts of the current and predicted El Nino on
temperature and precipitation for Hawaii are a primary driver of the Hawaii
Seasonal Outlook in most seasons.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are predicted in the
outlook for the Hawaii islands (the Big Island, Oahu, Maui and Kauai) in
November-December-January (NDJ) 2026-27. Below-normal temperatures are forecast
for the Big Island, Oahu and Maui in March-April-May (MAM) 2027, supported by
dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S. Due to increasing uncertainty
in ENSO impacts and weakening signals in forecast guidance, equal chances (EC)
for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for the Big Island,
Oahu and Maui from December-January-February (DJF) 2027 to February-March-April
(FMA), and for Kauai from DJF to MAM 2027. EC is also indicated for all
Hawaiian islands beginning in April-May-June (AMJ) 2027 and extending through
longer leads.
Below-normal precipitation is increasingly likely for all of Hawaii beginning
in NDJ 2026-27 and continuing through the AMJ 2027 season. This is due to most
dynamical and statistical seasonal precipitation forecast tools and the
historical relationship between a predicted strong El Nino event and winter
precipitation for the Hawaiian Islands. Due to uncertainty in forecasts for
longer leads (for the May-June-July (MJJ) 2027 season and beyond), EC is
indicated for all the Hawaiian islands for the precipitation outlook.
Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2026 A40 74.2 0.4 B70 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2027 EC 72.8 0.4 B75 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2027 EC 71.8 0.4 B75 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2027 EC 71.7 0.4 B70 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2027 B40 72.0 0.5 B70 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2027 EC 72.9 0.5 B60 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2027 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2027 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2027 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2027 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2027 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2027 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2027 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2026 A40 75.9 0.4 B60 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 B75 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2027 EC 72.5 0.4 B75 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2027 EC 72.3 0.4 B70 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2027 B40 73.0 0.4 B70 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2027 EC 74.3 0.5 B60 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2027 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2027 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2027 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2027 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2027 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2027 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2027 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2026 A40 77.7 0.5 B50 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2027 EC 75.3 0.5 B75 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2027 EC 73.9 0.4 B75 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 B70 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2027 B40 74.8 0.4 B70 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2027 EC 76.3 0.4 B60 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2027 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2027 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2027 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2027 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2027 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2027 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2027 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2026 A40 75.7 0.3 B50 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2027 EC 73.6 0.4 B75 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2027 EC 72.2 0.4 B75 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2027 EC 72.1 0.5 B70 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2027 EC 72.8 0.5 B70 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2027 EC 74.2 0.5 B60 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2027 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2027 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2027 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2027 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2027 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2027 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2027 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
FORECASTER: Luke He
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will
fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the
tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt
of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For
example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total
precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that
the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal
class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total
precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all
categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid
periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts
should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the
issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Nov 19, 2026.
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