Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2026 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the range of +0.5 to +1 degrees 
Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and 
the Big Island) during the previous week with warmer anomalies near Kauai and 
weaker positive anomalies near the Big Island of Hawaii. 
 
From January through December 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 30.05 inches (83 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 15.10 inches (92 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 8.05 inches (50 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport 58.95 inches (49 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the 
International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) predict positive SST anomalies 
around the Hawaiian Islands in February 2026. Most models predict weaker 
positive SST anomalies near the southeastern Hawaiian Islands in February 2026. 
Based on model SST and surface air temperature forecasts, above normal 
temperatures are favored for Kauai (Lihue), Oahu (Honolulu), Maui (Kahului), 
and the Big Island (Hilo), with greater probabilities for the northwestern 
islands. 
 
For the February 2026 precipitation outlook, the probability of above normal 
precipitation is elevated for all islands of Hawaii, with greater probabilities 
for the northwestern islands compared to the southeastern islands. The outlook 
is consistent with most models of the NMME and IMME, as well as statistical 
forecasts from the Constructed Analog (CA). 
 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
Hilo A45 71.4 0.5 A40 5.0 8.4 11.1 
Kahului A50 71.9 0.6 A45 0.9 1.1 1.8 
Honolulu A55 73.3 0.5 A50 0.7 1.0 1.4 
Lihue A60 71.7 0.6 A55 1.3 1.8 4.0 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2026 - FMA 2027 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the 
contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for further description of the El Niño 
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to 
the seasonal outlook. 
 
La Niña conditions continued into January 2026. Equatorial sea surface 
temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east-central tropical Pacific 
Ocean. SST anomalies were negative in recent weeks over the east-central and 
eastern equatorial Pacific, with average anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region 
ranging between -0.5 and -0.9 C since mid-December. Positive SST anomalies are 
observed over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean and across the tropical 
Pacific Ocean north of 10 degrees N latitude. Above-average subsurface ocean 
temperatures expanded across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean 
at depths as great as 200 meters, while below-average subsurface ocean 
temperatures are confined, since the beginning of January, to the eastern 
equatorial Pacific. Above-average outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), associated 
with suppressed convection and precipitation, is observed around the Date Line 
in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while below-average OLR, associated with 
enhanced convection and precipitation is observed over much of the Maritime 
Continent and northern Australia. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies are 
near-average across the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level (200-hPa) wind 
anomalies are westerly over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The 
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been inactive in recent weeks with La Niña 
dominating the low-frequency tropical variability. The real-time multivariate 
MJO (RMM) index has recently emerged in Phase 6 in the western Pacific Ocean. 
Models predict amplification of the MJO signal and eastward propagation across 
the Pacific. However impacts of the MJO for Hawaii are likely to occur prior to 
the start of February and do not play a role in the monthly or seasonal 
outlooks. 
 
Most dynamical and statistical models predict a transition from La Niña to 
ENSO-neutral conditions in the next month. Some models, such as the NCEP 
Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the CPC SST Constructed Analog (CA) predict 
a rapid increase in sea surface temperatures, with the potential for 
development of El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +0.5 
degrees C, by the end of boreal spring (June). While the CPC SST Canonical 
Correlation Analysis (CCA) predicts La Niña conditions to persist slightly 
longer and a positive Niño 3.4 anomaly to emerge in spring, the CCA favors 
ENSO-neutral conditions through summer. The CPC ENSO Outlook forecasts 
ENSO-neutral conditions with a 75% chance in the three-month 
January-February-March (JFM) season. However, El Niño conditions are more 
likely than ENSO-neutral in summer and early autumn 2026. The impacts of La 
Niña are expected to persist into February and the next three months for 
Hawaii and the tropics, despite predicted ENSO-neutral conditions, in part due 
to the predicted persistent east-west gradient of 
tropical SST anomalies. Historically, La Niña conditions favor above normal 
precipitation for Hawaii in the boreal winter. The Hawaii Seasonal Outlook for 
temperature and precipitation is based primarily on dynamical model forecasts 
from the NMME and statistical forecasts, including the CA. Uncertainty in the 
ENSO outlook in spring and summer, contributes to uncertainty in the Hawaii 
Seasonal Outlook for temperature and precipitation in these seasons. Therefore, 
there is increased uncertainty in the temperature outlook for Hawaii after 
about four months lead time and uncertainty in the precipitation outlook after 
about three months lead time. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are predicted in the 
outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo beginning in February-March-April 
(FMA) and continuing through May-June-July (MJJ) 2026, supported by nearly all 
dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as the CA statistical 
model, and consistent with decadal timescale temperature trends  for the region. 
Probabilities for above normal temperatures are greater for northwestern 
islands of Hawaii in early seasons, exceeding 55 percent for Lihue and 
Honolulu, following calibrated model guidance from the NMME. Due to increasing 
uncertainty in the state of ENSO and weakening signals  in forecast guidance at 
longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures 
are indicated for Hawaii beginning in June-July-August (JJA) 2026 and extending 
through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over all 
Hawaiian islands, Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island, for FMA through 
April-May-June (AMJ) 2026, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, and 
possible continuing La Niña impacts. Through the first three leads, greater 
probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast for the northwestern 
islands, and lower probabilities are forecast for the southeastern islands. 
Beginning in MJJ 2026 and extending through longer leads, EC is indicated in 
the seasonal precipitation outlook, due to uncertainty in the state of ENSO and 
weaker signals  in forecast tools. 
 
 Hilo 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
FMA 2026 A45 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5 
MAM 2026 A45 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0 
AMJ 2026 A40 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0 
MJJ 2026 A40 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 
JJA 2026 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 
JAS 2026 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 
ASO 2026 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 
SON 2026 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 
OND 2026 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 
NDJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 
DJF 2027 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 
JFM 2027 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 
FMA 2027 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5 
 Kahului 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
FMA 2026 A50 72.3 0.4 A45 3.2 4.1 6.4 
MAM 2026 A45 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6 
AMJ 2026 A40 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2 
MJJ 2026 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 
JJA 2026 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 
JAS 2026 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 
NDJ 2026 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 
DJF 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 
JFM 2027 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 
FMA 2027 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4 
 Honolulu 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
FMA 2026 A55 73.8 0.4 A50 1.9 3.2 4.7 
MAM 2026 A50 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0 
AMJ 2026 A45 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8 
MJJ 2026 A40 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 
JJA 2026 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 
JAS 2026 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 
ASO 2026 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 
SON 2026 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 
OND 2026 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 
NDJ 2026 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 
DJF 2027 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 
JFM 2027 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 
FMA 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7 
 Lihue 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
FMA 2026 A55 72.1 0.5 A55 5.8 8.4 9.9 
MAM 2026 A50 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0 
AMJ 2026 A45 74.2 0.5 A45 4.7 5.5 6.0 
MJJ 2026 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 
JJA 2026 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 
JAS 2026 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 
NDJ 2026 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 
DJF 2027 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 
JFM 2027 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 
FMA 2027 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9 
FORECASTER: Dan Collins 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will 
fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the 
tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt 
of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For 
example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total 
precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that 
the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal 
class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total 
precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all 
categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid 
periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts 
should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the 
issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Feb 19, 2026. 
 
$$