Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2026 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the range of +0.5 to +1.0 degree 
Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and 
the Big Island) during the previous week, with the warmest anomalies around 
Kauai. 
 
From January through November 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 21.22 inches (67 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 10.23 inches (72 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 7.86 inches (59 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport 55.11 inches (51 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the 
International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) predict positive SST anomalies 
around most of the Hawaiian Islands in January 2026, though the anomalies 
surrounding the Big Island are marginally warm. Based on model SST and surface 
air temperature forecasts, above normal temperatures are favored for Kauai 
(Lihue), Oahu (Honolulu), Maui (Kahului), and the Big Island (Hilo), with the 
highest odds generally over Kauai. 
 
For the January 2026 precipitation outlook, most model solutions indicate 
wetter-than-normal conditions, with the highest probabilities favored around 
Kauai. 
 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
Hilo A40 71.6 0.5 A40 3.1 8.9 11.8 
Kahului A45 72.1 0.6 A45 1.2 2.3 2.8 
Honolulu A55 73.3 0.5 A50 0.7 1.1 2.1 
Lihue A60 71.8 0.7 A55 1.3 2.2 4.8 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2026 - JFM 2027 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the 
contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for further description of the El Niño 
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to 
the seasonal outlook. 
 
La Niña persisted in November, as indicated by the continuation of 
below-average SSTs across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and 
above-average SSTs over the western equatorial Pacific. Recent negative 
subsurface temperature anomalies weakened slightly (averaged from 180-100W), 
but below-average temperatures continued from the surface to 200m depth in the 
eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. The tropical atmosphere reflected La 
Niña, with low-level easterly wind anomalies evident in the central Pacific, 
and upper-level westerly wind anomalies observed across most of the equatorial 
Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia and suppressed 
convection was near the Date Line. According to the CPC ENSO Team, La Niña is 
favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to 
ENSO-neutral most likely in Jan-Feb-Mar 2026 (68% chance). 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are predicted in the 
outlook for Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island from JFM 2026 through MAM 
2026, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S. 
For AMJ 2026, the NMME continues to depict enhanced probabilities for 
above-normal temperatures for the islands, with the exception of the Canadian 
CanESM5 model, which favors near-normal temperatures. In general for this set 
of outlooks from JFM to AMJ 2026, probabilities for above-normal temperatures 
are greater for northwestern islands of Hawaii, following calibrated model 
guidance from the major models. Due to increased uncertainty in the state of 
ENSO and weakening signals  in forecast guidance at longer leads, equal chances 
(EC) for above, near or below-normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii 
beginning in May-Jun-Jul (MJJ) 2026 and extending through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation are forecast over the 
island chain from JFM 2026 through AMJ 2026, supported by most (but not all) of 
the available dynamical model forecast tools. Similar to the temperature 
outlooks, the greatest chances for above-normal precipitation are for the 
northwestern islands, with the smallest chances for above-normal across the 
southeastern islands. On occasion during a cold season La Niña, a robust 
subtropical cyclone (often referred to as a Kona Low) approaches the Hawaiian 
Islands from the northwest. The Hawaiian word, Kona, means leeward and is used 
to describe winds with a southerly component that replace the usually 
persistent trade wind regime, and brings precipitation also to the 
typically-drier leeward slopes. Historically, Kona lows have produced a variety 
of weather-related hazards, most notably heavy rain, floods, and high winds 
(Morrison and Businger, 2001, Weather and Forecasting). Equal chances (EC) for 
above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated for the islands of 
Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island starting in MJJ 2026 and continuing 
through the final season, JFM 2027. 
 
 Hilo 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
JFM 2026 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 22.0 32.0 44.5 
FMA 2026 A40 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5 
MAM 2026 A40 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0 
AMJ 2026 A40 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0 
MJJ 2026 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1 
JJA 2026 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4 
JAS 2026 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4 
ASO 2026 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3 
SON 2026 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8 
OND 2026 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0 
NDJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0 
DJF 2027 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3 
JFM 2027 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5 
 Kahului 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
JFM 2026 A45 72.5 0.4 A45 4.2 6.2 8.2 
FMA 2026 A45 72.3 0.4 A45 3.2 4.1 6.4 
MAM 2026 A40 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6 
AMJ 2026 A40 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2 
MJJ 2026 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8 
JJA 2026 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5 
JAS 2026 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5 
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8 
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1 
NDJ 2026 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5 
DJF 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7 
JFM 2027 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2 
 Honolulu 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
JFM 2026 A60 73.9 0.4 A55 2.1 4.6 7.8 
FMA 2026 A55 73.8 0.4 A50 1.9 3.2 4.7 
MAM 2026 A50 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0 
AMJ 2026 A45 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8 
MJJ 2026 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6 
JJA 2026 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3 
JAS 2026 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7 
ASO 2026 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1 
SON 2026 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6 
OND 2026 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5 
NDJ 2026 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8 
DJF 2027 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6 
JFM 2027 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8 
 Lihue 
 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 
 FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV 
JFM 2026 A65 72.2 0.4 A60 6.5 8.8 13.8 
FMA 2026 A60 72.1 0.5 A55 5.8 8.4 9.9 
MAM 2026 A55 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0 
AMJ 2026 A45 74.2 0.5 A45 4.7 5.5 6.0 
MJJ 2026 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9 
JJA 2026 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9 
JAS 2026 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8 
ASO 2026 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4 
SON 2026 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2 
OND 2026 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6 
NDJ 2026 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9 
DJF 2027 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0 
JFM 2027 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8 
FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will 
fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the 
tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt 
of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For 
example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total 
precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that 
the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal 
class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total 
precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all 
categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid 
periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts 
should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the 
issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jan 15, 2026. 
 
$$