Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to be in a La Niña state, 
with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely for the first lead of the 
CPC Seasonal Outlook. The CPC ENSO Outlook indicates greater than a two-thirds 
chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for the January-February-March (JFM) 2026 
season. 
 
The JFM 2026 Temperature Outlook favors near normal temperatures for parts of 
the western coast of Mainland Alaska and above normal temperatures for the 
northwestern Alaska coast, supported by dynamical model forecasts from the 
North America Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) and consistent with decadal timescale 
trends and a consolidation of seasonal forecast tools. Below normal 
temperatures are favored for southeastern areas of the Mainland and for 
Southeast Alaska, resulting from the canonical impact of La Niña and supported 
by the International Multimodel Ensemble (C3S IMME). The temperature pattern of 
the JFM 2026 seasonal outlook for the contiguous United States (CONUS) is 
associated with canonical impacts of La Niña combined with decadal timescale 
temperature trends . Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific 
Northwest across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and far western 
Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures are favored for much of the 
southwestern CONUS from Southern California across the Southwest, the Southern 
and Central Rockies, South Texas, the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. 
Probabilities exceed 50 percent for parts of southern New Mexico, West Texas, 
South Georgia and Florida. Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above normal 
seasonal mean temperatures are indicated for remaining areas, including the 
Central Plains states and much of the Northeast. 
 
The JFM 2026 Precipitation Outlook favors above normal precipitation for 
northwestern Mainland Alaska and slightly favors below normal precipitation for 
the southeastern coast and the Alaska Panhandle, consistent with canonical La 
Niña impacts and supported by the NMME forecast. The JFM 2026 seasonal 
precipitation pattern is strongly correlated with the canonical impacts of La 
Niña and supported by the C3S IMME forecast. Above normal precipitation is 
favored from the Pacific Northwest across the Northern Rockies and Northern 
Plains. Above normal precipitation is likely, with the probability exceeding 50 
percent in some areas, for the Midwest, from the Central Mississippi Valley 
across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region and northwestern New York. 
For the remaining areas, where possible seasonal total precipitation amounts 
are predicted to be similar to climatological probabilities, EC is indicated. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
The most recent seasonal mean Niño 3.4 index value for September through 
November is -0.6 degrees Celsius (C), and the most recent weekly mean sea 
surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region is -0.7 degrees C, 
indicating a weak La Niña. However, a strong positive SST anomaly exceeding +1 
degree C extends across most of the North Pacific, and positive SST anomalies 
greater than +0.5 degrees C are observed over the western Pacific. Upper level 
(200-hPa) westerly wind anomalies are observed over the central and eastern 
equatorial Pacific, consistent with La Niña, while low level wind anomalies 
were easterly over only small areas of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Negative 
ocean temperature anomalies persist at depths from 150 meters to the surface 
across the eastern Pacific. Although, negative total subsurface temperature 
anomalies have weakened since November with increasing positive temperature 
anomalies at depths of 50 to 200 meters in the western equatorial Pacific. 
These conditions indicate La Niña conditions are present. 
 
Negative soil moisture anomalies are observed across much of the eastern half 
of the CONUS. A constructed analog (CA) statistical forecast for the JFM season 
from the present soil moisture anomaly pattern predicts associated negative 
temperature anomalies for parts of the West and positive temperature anomalies 
from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic coast. Enhanced precipitation relative 
to climatology is predicted for most of Texas, the Mississippi Valley, the 
Midwest, and Great Lakes region, while negative precipitation anomalies are 
predicted over much of the West and for the Southeast Atlantic coast. This 
pattern is somewhat correlated with La Niña impacts. 
 
Positive SST anomalies are observed near the west coast of the CONUS, the south 
coast of Alaska, and the Gulf and Southeast Atlantic coasts. Negative SST 
anomalies are presently near the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. Persistent coastal 
SST anomalies may influence seasonal temperatures of adjacent areas. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
SST forecasts from the NMME dynamical models  and from the CA statistical model 
predict SST anomalies near the -0.5 degree C threshold for La Niña for the Niño 
3.4 region in the JFM 2026 season, followed by a decrease in the negative 
anomaly towards zero in the next couple months. The Markov and Canonical 
Correlation Analysis (CCA) statistical models predict an anomaly nearer to -1 
degree C in JFM 2026 before decreasing towards zero. The spread of dynamical 
model ensemble members is narrower than average indicating confidence in the 
forecast. A consolidation of dynamical and statistical forecasts for the Niño 
3.4 region predicts a likely transition to ENSO-neutral SST anomalies between 
negative and positive 0.5 degrees C in the next couple months and continuing 
through the boreal spring seasons. Dynamical models  and the CA statistical 
model predict increasingly positive Niño 3.4 SST anomalies for next summer, 
associated with a possible El Niño. The emergence of El Niño conditions is 
considered slightly more likely than the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions 
in the July-August-September (JAS) summer season, according to the CPC ENSO 
Outlook, while La Niña conditions continue to be unlikely. Uncertainty in Niño 
3.4 SST forecasts increases for the summer season and longer leads. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks are based primarily on 
forecast tools derived from the NMME, including calibrated versions, such as 
the Probability Anomaly Correlation (PAC) and the Calibration, Bridging and 
Merging (CBaM), which calibrates the dynamical model forecasts using Bayesian 
Joint Probability (BJP) models, as well as generating statistical or bridging 
BJP models of temperature and precipitation from dynamical model Niño 3.4 
anomaly forecast predictors. An ENSO-OCN forecast tool is used to represent the 
combined influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and decadal 
timescale trends  in temperature and precipitation, using the Optimum Climate 
Normal (OCN). La Niña is expected to be the primary forcing of temperature and 
precipitation patterns over North America for the JFM and February-March-April 
(FMA) 2026 seasons, as the predicted SST anomaly pattern in the Pacific Ocean 
continues to influence the atmospheric circulation similar to a La Niña state. 
The forecast of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions means that longer 
timescale decadal variability in temperature and precipitation are generally 
the largest predictable signal for the seasonal forecasts, following 
diminishing impacts of the current La Niña in the spring of 2026. Decadal 
variability and trends  are determined from the OCN, calculated from the 
difference between the most recent 15-year period average seasonal temperature 
or precipitation and the average for the climatology period from 1991-2020. 
Outlooks for the spring and summer seasons are in part influenced by the 
greater likelihood of El Niño or neutral ENSO conditions relative to the 
unlikelihood of La Niña conditions. Consolidations of multiple statistical 
tools and when available dynamical forecast tools that utilizes PAC calibration 
are used throughout the outlooks from JFM 2026 to JFM 2027. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JFM 2026 TO JFM 2027 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
The JFM 2026 Seasonal Temperature Outlook favors near normal temperatures for 
the central west coast of Mainland Alaska and above normal temperatures for the 
northwest coast, supported primarily by the NMME and consolidation forecasts. 
Below normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and 
Southeast through the FMA 2026 season, consistent with the impacts of the 
current La Niña in the tropical Pacific. Below normal temperatures are favored 
from parts of the Pacific Northwest along the northern tier of the CONUS to the 
western Great Lakes region in JFM and FMA 2026, due to expected persistent 
impacts of a La Niña-like pattern. Enhanced probabilities for above normal 
temperatures across a large part of the southern tier of the CONUS for JFM 
through FMA 2026 are related to La Niña impacts. As the areas of enhanced 
probabilities expand across western Alaska, northward into the Northeast, and 
into the northwestern CONUS during the spring seasons, the influence of decadal 
trends becomes more pronounced. The temperature outlooks for April-May-June 
(AMJ) 2026 through JFM 2027 primarily rely on the ENSO-OCN statistical 
forecast, resulting from the SST consolidation Niño 3.4 forecast and the OCN. 
Strong decadal trend signals  relative to seasonal variability lead to 
probabilities exceeding 50 percent for above normal over much of the West and 
the Northeast for warm seasons from AMJ 2026 through October-November-December 
(OND) 2026. EC is indicated for much of the north-central CONUS through the 
June-July-August (JJA) season, where decadal trends  are weak, but most of the 
forecast domain including Alaska favors above normal through autumn of next 
year. Decadal trends  and coverage of enhanced probabilities of above normal 
decrease by next winter, with above normal temperature probabilities confined 
to western Mainland Alaska, parts of the Southwest, Texas, the Gulf coast, and 
the eastern quarter of the CONUS. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The JFM through March-April-May (MAM) 2026 Precipitation Outlooks favor above 
normal precipitation for western Mainland Alaska, supported by the NMME and the 
consolidation. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored only in the JFM 
2026 season for the southeastern coast of Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, 
related to La Niña impacts and supported by the NMME forecast. Enhanced 
probabilities for above normal precipitation continue for a small area of 
northwestern Alaska through the May-June-July (MJJ) 2026 season and emerge over 
portions of the North Slope of Alaska in longer leads after 
September-October-November (SON) 2026, supported by the precipitation 
consolidation forecast. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for the 
Pacific Northwest in JFM and FMA 2026, supported by the C3S IMME dynamical 
model forecasts and consistent with canonical La Niña impacts. Above normal 
precipitation is also favored for most of the Midwest from JFM through MAM 
2026, partly related to persistent La Niña impacts as predicted by the C3S 
IMME. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the Northern 
Plains in JFM 2026, primarily supported by uncalibrated NMME model forecasts 
and canonical La Niña impacts. Enhanced probabilities for below normal 
precipitation are predicted across much of the southwestern CONUS in JFM 
through MAM 2026 and for much of Texas, the Gulf coast, and the Southeast 
Atlantic coast in JFM and FMA 2026, consistent with NMME forecasts and La Niña 
impacts. In the AMJ through JAS 2026 seasons, below normal precipitation is 
favored over much of the northwestern CONUS, while above normal precipitation 
is favored over parts of the East, related to decadal trends  and consistent 
with the consolidation of statistical forecast tools. Through remaining leads 
from August-September-October (ASO) 2026 through JFM 2027, small areas of 
enhanced probabilities of below or above normal precipitation are entirely 
related to where decadal trend signals  emerge from statistical forecast tools. 
 
FORECASTER: Dan Collins 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Jan 15 2026 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$