Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
The current phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is La Nina. A 
transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely during early 2026, with 
ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing through at least the Northern Hemisphere 
late spring. Despite the forecast transition to ENSO-neutral, we expect La 
Nina impacts through at least February-March-April (FMA) 2026, which 
influences these outlooks. 
 
The FMA 2026 Temperature Outlook favors below-normal temperatures over the 
Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and adjacent areas of the Upper Mississippi 
Valley and interior Pacific Northwest. Above-normal temperatures are favored 
over California, the Southwest, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and 
Southeast, extending into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Over 
Alaska, above-normal temperatures are forecast for the West, Northwest, and 
North, transitioning to below-normal temperatures over the southeastern 
mainland and Southeast Alaska. 
 
Above-normal precipitation is favored in the FMA 2026 Outlook for the Northern 
Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, 
Ohio Valley, and the interior Northeast. Below-normal precipitation is more 
likely for much of California, the Southwest, Southern Rockies, Southern 
Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic. Over 
Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored for the western third of the 
mainland, with a weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation over much of the 
southern coast of the mainland and Southeast Alaska. 
 
Elsewhere over the U.S., equal chances of above-, near-, and below-normal 
temperature or precipitation (EC) is forecast where probabilities for each 
category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation 
amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have persisted in the 
east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific since September 2025. During the 
last week, SST departures in the Nino3.4 region were approximately 0.8 degrees 
Celsius below-average. However, upper-ocean temperatures (0 to 300 meters) have 
become increasingly positive in the central and eastern Pacific since 
mid-December 2025. Below-average subsurface temperatures have weakened across 
the central and eastern Pacific, while above-average subsurface temperatures 
have strengthened in the western half of the basin and expanded into the 
east-central Pacific. Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are 
consistent with La Nina, with low-level zonal wind anomalies remaining mainly 
easterly over the central Pacific, though some recent westerly wind anomalies 
have been observed. Despite these more recent changes to conditions in the 
equatorial Pacific, La Nina conditions are still present, and we expect some 
influence through at least the FMA 2026 season. 
 
Elsewhere, SSTs are above-average off the coasts of California, Oregon, and 
Washington, the Gulf, and along much of the East Coast, though negative 
anomalies are present near New England. SSTs are mostly neutral around Alaska, 
with sea ice primarily along the North Slope and the West Coast. 
 
Over the contiguous United States (CONUS), snow cover is present in 
high-elevation regions of the West, as well as in the Upper Midwest, the Great 
Lakes, and parts of New England; however, coverage is anomalously low for some 
of these areas for this time of year. Local interactions with SSTs and snow 
cover are factored into early-lead forecasts where relevant. 
 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts indicate a possible 
transition to ENSO-neutral during early 2026. In January initialized forecasts 
from the NMME, the multi-model ensemble mean shows temperatures in the Nino3.4 
region approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius colder than average for February, with 
this departure from normal weakening to near zero by April. However, there is 
some spread in forecasts for the next season, for example, consolidated SST 
forecasts for the FMA period range from SSTs in the Nino3.4 region between 0.5 
and 1.0 degree Celsius colder than average (in the Markov model) to near-normal 
temperatures (in the Climate Forecast System Model Version 2, CFSv2). 
 
According to the ENSO team, there is a 75% chance of a transition to 
ENSO-neutral conditions during January-February-March (JFM) 2026. ENSO-neutral 
conditions are likely to persist through at least the Northern Hemisphere late 
spring before potentially shifting toward El Nino in the summer and early fall 
of 2026. While the chance of El Nino is higher than the chance of ENSO-neutral 
or La Nina for those seasons, model predictions remain uncertain due to lower 
forecast accuracy as we progress through the spring months and into summer. 
Some lingering La Nina influence is expected for FMA 2026, but the potential 
influence of El Nino later in the year is too uncertain to determine at this 
time. 
 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, the CFSv2, and the Copernicus (C3S) 
multi-model ensemble system is used extensively for the first six leads when 
they are available, as is the objective, historical skill weighted 
consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that 
combines both dynamical and statistical forecast information. A consolidation 
of statistical tools including the ENSO-OCN tool, which represents the combined 
influence of ENSO (when active) and decadal timescale trends  in temperature and 
precipitation (utilizing the Optimum Climate Normal, OCN) and dynamical models  
is used for the first six leads. When appropriate, i.e. during early leads, 
canonical impacts of La Nina based on composite and regression analysis from 
historical La Nina events are considered. Local SST anomalies, sea ice, and 
snow cover are also considered for early leads. Following lead 6, the ENSO-OCN 
forecast tool is used more extensively. Decadal variability and trends  are 
determined from the OCN, representing the difference between the most recent 
15-year period average seasonal temperature or precipitation and the average 
for the climatology period, from 1991-2020. 
 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2026 TO FMA 2027 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
The FMA 2026 Temperature Outlook reflects a pattern similar to typical La Nina 
impacts, with above-normal temperatures favored along the southern tier of the 
CONUS and below-normal temperatures more likely from the interior Northwest 
through the western Great Lakes. Over Alaska, above-normal temperatures are 
favored for parts of the western and northern mainland, while below-normal 
temperatures are weakly favored (33% to 40% probability) for the parts of the 
southeastern mainland and Southeast Alaska. Probabilities for above-normal 
temperatures are highest (50% to 60% chances) over parts of the Southwest and 
Southeast of the CONUS, where tools showed the best agreement. Although we 
expect some continuation of La Nina impacts throughout the upcoming season, 
forecasts of La Nina weaken as the season progresses. This leads to lower 
probabilities over southeastern mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, and EC 
over the Pacific Northwest, despite these being regions that are canonically 
impacted by La Nina during the FMA season. C3S also points to the below-normal 
probabilities peaking in March over southeastern mainland Alaska and Southeast 
Alaska, but this is inconsistent with NMME which tilts more neutral, which 
further increases uncertainty. 
 
While this month's FMA Temperature Outlook is generally similar to last 
month's, there are notable differences. Above-normal temperature probabilities 
are comparatively expanded to cover more of California in this month's FMA 
Temperature Outlook, given NMME and consolidated model forecasts that favor 
more expansive warming along the West Coast. Although some tools suggested that 
enhanced above-normal probabilities extend into Oregon and Washington, we 
maintain EC for those states as La Nina typically favors cooler temperatures 
there. Elevated above-normal probabilities are also expanded slightly northward 
over the Southern Plains due to a warmer shift in dynamical models  over the 
central CONUS. However, because cold air intrusions into the Central Plains are 
possible during a La Nina spring, we have leaned toward EC despite some of the 
warmer model solutions. The Northeast is also shifted to EC this month compared 
to the above-normal forecast in the previous FMA Temperature Outlook. While 
decadal trends  tilt above average over the Northeast, factors such as cold SSTs 
off New England, current snow cover, and inconsistent model forecasts between 
the NMME and C3S led to this change. The Alaska forecast remains consistent 
with last month, supported by decadal trends  and La Nina impacts. 
 
As we transition into MAM 2026, La Nina impacts become less coherent due to 
the forecast shift toward ENSO-neutral conditions and uncertainty in model 
predictions through spring. An expansive area of above-normal temperatures is 
favored over much of the West, Southern Plains, and East Coast through 
June-July-August (JJA) 2026, which is based on NMME, C3S, and a consolidation 
of statistical and dynamical tools. These enhanced above-normal probabilities 
overspread much of the CONUS in summer and early winter 2026 before retreating 
to the southern tier and East Coast by FMA 2027. These later leads are 
primarily based on decadal trends . Over Alaska, the below-normal temperatures 
over the southeastern mainland and Southeast Alaska transition to EC in MAM 
2026. Most of the state is favored to see above-normal temperatures from 
April-May-June (AMJ) 2026 through roughly September-October-November (SON) 
2026, consistent with decadal trends . 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The FMA 2026 Precipitation Outlook favors above-normal precipitation over 
western mainland Alaska and below-normal precipitation over much of the 
southern coast of the mainland and Southeast Alaska. Across the CONUS, 
above-normal precipitation is indicated for the northern Rockies, the interior 
Northwest, the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the 
interior Northeast. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the southern 
tier, including parts of the Central Plains. This Outlook generally resembles a 
typical La Nina pattern, and tools were in good agreement for most regions. 
Compared to last month's outlook, NMME and the final consolidation of 
statistical and dynamical models  indicate a shift toward below-normal 
precipitation for some of California previously labeled as EC. Conversely, 
inconsistency among tools for the Northwest coast led to a change to a forecast 
of EC compared to above-normal precipitation indicated in last month's Outlook. 
Weakly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation (33% to 40% chance) 
are introduced for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley where the 
NMME favored weak above-normal precipitation. Most tools, including NMME, C3S, 
and statistical tools, support a westward and eastward expansion of the 
above-normal precipitation probabilities over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley 
compared to last month's Outlook. 
 
La Nina impacts are expected to wane approaching the MAM 2026 season. 
Remaining leads are based on dynamical models  and decadal trends . Above-normal 
precipitation is favored for northwestern mainland Alaska through May-June-July 
(MJJ) 2026. EC is indicated for all of Alaska from summer through early fall 
2026, after which above-normal precipitation is favored over parts of the 
state, consistent with decadal trends . Over the CONUS, enhanced below-normal 
probabilities over the southern tier in FMA 2026 shift to the Southwest in MAM 
2026 and then to the Northwest in AMJ through July-August-September (JAS) 2026. 
Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are maintained over the Great 
Lakes and Ohio Valley before shifting to the Southeast and East Coast from AMJ 
2026 through JAS 2026. These signals  are supported by dynamical models  and 
decadal trends . Any enhanced probabilities in the final leads are related to 
where decadal trend signals  emerge from statistical tools. 
 
FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Feb 19 2026 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$