Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
Current oceanic and atmospheric observations reveal the transition from La 
Nina to ENSO-neutral is now complete. Another transition, this time from 
ENSO-Neutral to El Nino, is expected to occur during the May-Jun-Jul (MJJ) 
2026 season (61 percent chance), with El Nino likely to persist through at 
least the end of 2026. 
 
The May-Jun-Jul (MJJ) 2026 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal 
mean temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) with the exception of 
parts of the northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes region. 
A tilt toward above-normal temperatures is also forecast across Alaska. The 
highest probabilities (60-70 percent) of above- normal temperatures are 
forecast for areas of the northern and central Great Basin and Rockies. 
 
The MJJ 2026 precipitation outlook depicts modestly enhanced probabilities of 
below-normal seasonal precipitation amounts from the Pacific Northwest and 
northern and central portions of the Intermountain West and Rockies 
southeastward across parts of the central Great Plains. Below-normal 
precipitation is also favored for most of Southeast Alaska. Above normal 
precipitation is favored for most of western Alaska, the vicinity of the Lower 
Four Corners region, and most of the Atlantic Coast states into the eastern 
Gulf region. 
 
Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category 
of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts 
are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
During March, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, accompanied by near-average 
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial 
Pacific. During the May-Jun-Jul (MJJ) 2026 season, El Nino is likely to emerge 
(61 percent chance) and persist through at least the end of this year. The 
latest weekly Nino 3.4 index value is -0.3 deg C. The equatorial subsurface 
temperature index (averaged from 180 to 100W) increased for the 5th consecutive 
month, with above-average subsurface temperatures extending across the entire 
Pacific to a depth of at least 250-300 meters. Westerly wind anomalies were 
observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels (850-hPa) and were 
evident over the eastern Pacific at high levels (200-hPa). Convection was 
near-average over the Date Line, with suppressed convection over western 
Indonesia. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected 
ENSO-neutral conditions. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
Nearly all SST anomaly forecasts for the Nino 3.4 region favor the development 
of an El Nino within the next few months, though there are significant 
differences regarding the predicted maximum intensity of such an event. The CPC 
SST Consolidation Nino 3.4 forecast reaches the threshold anomaly value of El 
Nino (+0.5 deg C) during the AMJ season, peaks at +1.2 deg C (a "moderate El 
Nino") during OND 2026, and gradually tapers off after that, returning to 
ENSO-neutral by FMA 2027. The error bars associated with the consolidation 
become quite large by the onset of autumn 2026, so this also must be taken into 
account. The CFSv2 curve has the greatest slope of the Consolidation 
constituents, rapidly peaking near +2.1 deg C (a "very strong" El Nino) by OND 
2026. The NMME and IMME/C3S ensemble averages pass through the El Nino 
threshold value of +0.5 deg C prior to May. CPC's official ENSO Probabilities 
chart favors ENSO-neutral through the AMJ season (80 percent chance), with El 
Nino favored to become the dominant phase of ENSO during MJJ (61 percent 
chance). The odds for a warm event rapidly climb to near 90 percent by JAS and 
persist through at least NDJ 2026-27. CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities (issued 
in April 2026) depict odds near 50 percent that the RONI (Relative Oceanic 
Nino Index) will rise into either the strong (+1.5C <= RONI < +2.0C) or very 
strong (RONI >= +2.0C) categories during NDJ 2026. El Nino is likely because 
of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies across the entire 
near-equatorial Pacific, and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western 
Pacific that triggered oceanic Kelvin waves and downwelling. An important 
caveat with this outlook is the necessity of continued westerly wind anomalies 
across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the Northern Hemisphere summer 
months, which is not assured. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Physical subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate drivers considered in this set 
of outlooks include anomalous land surface states, in particular ongoing 
drought conditions as well as deficits in snowpack across the western CONUS. 
Correlations between current (April) soil moisture and MJJ temperature and 
precipitation were considered, as were ENSO composites and regressions. Though 
El Nino development is possible during JJA, actual impacts are more likely to 
arise by JAS. This also allows for the passage of the so-called Spring 
Predictability Barrier, a period of less-skillful SST anomaly forecasts. This 
"barrier" may be related to an annual reset or transition period of the global 
ocean-atmosphere system. El Nino composites and regressions are more likely to 
be reliable from JAS onwards through late autumn. 
 
The NMME and Copernicus Climate Suite (C3S) dynamical model ensemble systems 
and their participant models are utilized as well as experimental output from a 
beta version of the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS, future system to replace the 
CFSv2). Standard statistical forecast tools, objective, skill weighted 
consolidation guidance, and long term temperature and precipitation trends  
contributed strongly to the outlooks at various leads and locations. In 
particular, the constructed analog anchored to SST (CA-SST) and a companion 
anchored to soil moisture anomalies (CAS) played a somewhat larger role than 
normal in this set of outlooks. The Calibrated, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) 
tool was also used. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MJJ 2026 TO MJJ 2027 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
The MJJ 2026 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures 
for much of the CONUS, and all of Alaska, consistent with most model guidance. 
Maximum temperature probabilities of 60-70 percent are depicted over northern 
and central portions of the Intermountain West and Rockies. The elevated 
chances of above-normal temperatures over the West are supported by most of the 
available models and tools (including the SFS Beta), as well as trends . The 
widespread anomalous warmth correlates well with below-normal soil moisture, 
snow pack deficits, and natural analogs  which are anchored on Pacific SSTs. The 
analogs use a nearest neighbor analysis and 12 months of SST observations, 
assigning equal weight to each of the four Nino regions. Over the interior 
Southeast, a secondary maximum for above-normal temperatures is favored (50-60 
percent). The calibrated NMME, CBaM, CFSv2, ENSO-OCN and statistical and final 
consolidation tools support this secondary maximum, in addition to very low 
soil moisture profiles currently in place over that region. Elsewhere, from 
portions of the northern Great Plains eastward across the Upper Mississippi 
Valley and Great Lakes region, Equal Chances (EC) of above-, near-, and 
below-normal temperatures are favored. This broad region of favored EC is where 
many models and tools support very weak temperature signals  or conflicting 
indications. It is also consistent with the idea of (favored) soon-to-emerge El 
Nino conditions, with non-warmth favored during the summer months. 
 
During the next three seasons (JJA, JAS, and ASO) the signal for anomalous 
warmth over much of the CONUS remains dominant, especially over the western 
half of the Lower 48 states, Gulf Coast states, and East Coast states. 
Above-normal temperature chances are greatest over the West and the Northeast. 
This is backed by the CBaM and many of the other tools. With the expectation of 
a soon-to-develop El Nino, below-normal temperatures are slightly favored in 
JAS and ASO generally from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the central Great 
Lakes area. This cool preference is based largely on ENSO regression 
relationships. Temperature relationships with soil moisture were also 
considered through these seasons. In Alaska, areas south of the Brooks Range 
are favored to be relatively warm, while the North Slope varies from different 
spatial coverages of above-normal temperatures to EC. Moving into the autumn 
months, the maps begin to assume the shape of familiar El Nino composites, 
with the southern CONUS transitioning from favored above-normal temperatures to 
widespread EC, while the northern CONUS retains the anomalous warmth. This 
pattern broadly persists throughout DJF 2026-27 and JFM 2027, the height of the 
winter season. El Nino also tilts the odds towards above-normal temperatures 
throughout Alaska during this period, with somewhat higher probabilities 
favored over southern sections of the state. Moving through late winter and 
early spring 2027, the official temperature outlooks begin to carve out a large 
area of EC across the north-central states, with a return to relatively warm 
temperatures over the southern CONUS, as favored by the ENSO-OCN tool and the 
statistical consolidation. Longer-term trends  generally favor 
warmer-than-normal temperatures in Alaska during this period. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The MJJ 2026 precipitation outlook modestly favors above-normal precipitation 
over most of the Atlantic Coast states, extending into the eastern Gulf Coast 
region. This has the support of CBaM, CFSv2, the final consolidation, C3S, 
NCAR_CCSM4, CMCC, and the 15-year OCN trend tool. Wetter-than-normal conditions 
are also favored in the Lower Four Corners region, with the expectation of a 
fairly robust monsoon. What precipitation falls in the month of July is 
forecast to carry the MJJ season as a whole, as May and June tend to be rather 
dry in the Desert Southwest. Below-normal precipitation is favored from the 
Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region east-southeastward across 
the northern and central Rockies, and the Central Plains. Approximately 
one-half of the available precipitation guidance leans towards this scenario, 
in addition to historical trends  for this time of year (though trends  do not 
favor the eastern extension of the relative dryness into the Central Plains). 
In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored for most of the western half 
of the state, with below-normal slightly favored over much of Southeast Alaska. 
This is consistent with most of the precipitation guidance. Elsewhere, which 
includes much of Eastern Alaska and much of the CONUS, EC is favored. 
 
During the next two seasons (JJA and JAS), relative dryness is favored across 
parts of the far Northwest, the Central and Southern Plains, and (by JAS) 
Florida. For the Northwest, long-term trends  favor relative dryness quite 
strongly, as do the statistical and final consolidation forecasts. These same 
tools favor below-normal precipitation over the Central and Southern Plains in 
JJA, in addition to the uncalibrated NMME, uncalibrated C3S, CFSv2, and the 
expectation of continuing drought. In ASO 2026, the C3S and OCN trend tool are 
primary supporters of the below-normal precipitation favored over the 
Northwest, and Central and Southern Plains. Areas of above-normal precipitation 
are favored throughout much of the Four Corners region during the JJA, JAS, and 
ASO seasons, in expectation of a fairly robust monsoon setup. Above-normal 
precipitation is also favored over the southern Mid-Atlantic and interior 
Southeast during these same seasons, well supported by the OCN trend tool. 
Another consideration towards the end of the summer is that tropical cyclone 
(TC) activity normally gets disrupted over the western Atlantic Ocean and 
Caribbean Sea by increased 200-hPa wind speeds associated with El Nino. This 
is why the area of favored above-normal precipitation has been nudged inland 
away from the Southeast coast. Moving into the autumn months, the precipitation 
outlooks begin to take on the familiar resemblance of El Nino composites. The 
canonical dichotomy of anomalous wetness across much of the southern tier of 
the CONUS and expanding areas of anomalous dryness across the northern tier 
become better established by late fall and winter. The two primary regions of 
favored dryness include the northwestern CONUS (with the signal becoming more 
concentrated inland across the Northwest by winter), and over the Great 
Lakes/Ohio Valley by the same period. By late winter, all that remains (in an 
anomalous sense) is a fairly small region of favored above-normal precipitation 
over the Southeast, which then varies in aerial extent during the remaining 
seasons of this outlook period. 
 
In Alaska, above-normal precipitation amounts are favored over most areas south 
of the Brooks Range through the summer and autumn months. By DJF 2026-27 and 
JFM 2027, El Nino composites favor a thin sliver of relative wetness along the 
immediate southern coast of Alaska. EC is deemed the most likely precipitation 
outcome during FMA 2027, with historical trends  favoring a return of 
above-normal precipitation chances to the North Slope and environs during the 
spring months. 
 
FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on May 21 2026 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$