Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
La Niña conditions remain present as depicted by current oceanic and 
atmospheric observations. A transition from La Niña to El Niño Southern 
Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral 
favored through May-July 2026. In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to 
emerge and persist through at least the end of 2026. 
 
The April-May-June (AMJ) 2026 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal 
mean temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) with the exception of 
parts of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi valley, Great Lakes and 
Northeast. A tilt toward above normal temperatures is also forecast for coastal 
western and southwestern Alaska. The highest probabilities (greater than 60 
percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast for areas of the central 
Great Basin and Rockies to parts of the Southwest. Below normal temperatures 
are modestly favored for east-central Alaska. 
 
The AMJ 2026 precipitation outlook depicts modestly enhanced probabilities of 
below normal seasonal precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest, much of 
the Intermountain West and Rockies as well as areas in the central High and 
Great Plains. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of western Alaska 
and for a region that includes the eastern Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic and 
parts of the Southeast. 
 
Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category 
of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts 
are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
La Niña conditions remain present in the tropical Pacific Ocean as shown by 
both oceanic and atmospheric indicators. Below-normal relative sea surface 
temperatures (SSTs) continue along and just south of the equator from the Date 
Line to 120 W. These departures from normal have decreased in magnitude over 
the last few months as La Niña continues to weaken. The latest weekly value of 
the relative Nino3.4 SST index is -0.5 degrees C. 
 
In the atmosphere, anomalous convection and lower- and upper-level winds in the 
tropical Pacific remain quite consistent with La Niña conditions - perhaps the 
strongest of the entire winter season. 
 
But conditions at depth across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are quite 
different. The most recent subsurface ocean temperatures show an expansive area 
of warmer than normal water across the entire Pacific to a depth ranging from 
150-250 meters. Positive ocean temperature anomalies exceed +3-4 degrees C so a 
large, deep reservoir of warmer than average water is available to potentially 
support development of El Niño. 
 
Large areas of the north Pacific and north Atlantic oceans continue to show 
warmer than normal SSTs as do the subtropical waters off the coast of northern 
Mexico and Baja California. Below normal SSTs are currently in ice free waters 
near Alaska due to persistent troughing and a colder than normal winter across 
most of the state. 
 
A review of current snow depth anomalies in the CONUS shows significantly below 
normal snowpack for most areas in the western U.S., some areas in the northern 
Plains and Northeast. Rapid snowmelt occurred in the Northeast and so 
anomalously wet surface conditions are present in some areas. 
 
An important factor in the AMJ 2026 outlook is the extensive drought coverage 
across the CONUS. Approximately 54% of the CONUS is currently experiencing 
moderate to exceptional drought as of early-mid March, based on the U.S. 
Drought monitor. Dry surface conditions played a role in the outlook for areas 
in the West, southern Plains and parts of the Southeast including Florida. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The CPC objective, skill weighted consolidation, the North American Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME) and the Constructed Analogue (CA) Niño3.4 SST outlooks are 
consistent in forecasting a quick transition to ENSO-neutral this Spring and 
potential El Niño development by the summer months in 2026. These forecasts 
continue to show an increase in positive Niño3.4 temperature departures into 
late autumn and the official odds for El Niño conditions is near 80% by the 
Oct-Nov-Dec 2026 season. There remains, however, considerable forecast spread 
within ensemble prediction systems and between all forecast guidance overall. 
This is not surprising as at this time of the year, predictions often show 
lower skill for ENSO conditions later in the calendar year (i.e. spring 
predictability barrier). 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Physical subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate drivers considered in the set of 
outlooks include anomalous land surface states, in particular ongoing drought 
conditions as well as deficits in snowpack across the western CONUS. Impacts 
from potential El Niño development are considered and utilized from the 
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 2026 season onwards through late autumn with modest and slow 
adjustments at these intermediate leads. 
 
The NMME and Copernicus Climate Suite (C3S) dynamical model ensemble systems 
and their participant models are utilized as well as experimental output from a 
beta version of the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS, future system to replace the 
CFSv2). Standard statistical forecast tools and objective, skill weighted 
consolidation guidance and long term temperature and precipitation trends  
contributed strongly to the outlooks at various leads and locations. In 
particular, the constructed analog (CA) anchored to SST and a companion 
anchored to soil moisture anomalies played a somewhat larger role than normal 
in this set of outlooks. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - AMJ 2026 TO AMJ 2027 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
There is quite good consistency among forecast statistical and dynamical model 
guidance and other tools and information for large coverage and generally high 
probabilities (in some areas) for above normal temperatures for most of the 
CONUS during AMJ 2026. Warmer than normal conditions are favored for the 
majority of the CONUS, with the exception of an area from the northern Plains 
eastward across the Great Lakes to the Northeast. EC is forecast for this 
region given less agreement in forecast tools and uncertainty in evolving land 
surface conditions, which increases uncertainty in the outlook. The highest 
likelihood for above normal temperatures is forecast from the north-central 
Intermountain West to the central Rockies and Southwest. Calibrated 
probabilities from the NMME and C3S dynamical model guidance, statistical 
forecast tools and the relationship between anomalously dry soil moisture 
conditions and subsequent seasonal mean temperatures support these higher 
probabilities. 
 
For Alaska, uncertainty was quite high and odds for forecast above-normal 
temperatures for areas of the west coast of the state are based primarily on 
weak consensus of dynamical model guidance. Elevated odds for below normal 
temperatures are forecast for the east-central portion of the state. This is 
introduced by utilization of stable natural analogs  keyed to recent and current 
conditions in the Tropics and Extratropics. 
 
Consistency in statistical and dynamical model guidance and forecast rationale 
noted for the AMJ outlook remained through the May-June-July (MJJ) and JJA 2026 
seasons. The changes from the previously released seasonal outlook package from 
mid-February for these seasons are (1) an increase in probabilities for above 
normal temperatures for areas in the Rockies and south central Plains and parts 
of the western Gulf coast, (2) a larger region of EC is forecast during JJA 
2026 due to potential El Niño impacts later in the season (e.g. tilt toward 
cooler than normal conditions) centered near the Great Lakes, and (3) an 
adjustment of favored above normal temperatures in Alaska from the west coast 
to the southern half of the state. 
 
An enhanced likelihood for above normal temperatures remains forecast for the 
western CONUS through the Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 2026 season, however, a decrease in 
odds is depicted for the south/central Rockies, Southwest and southern High 
Plains as prospects of an active Southwest monsoon and then potential El Niño 
impacts come into play. Depending on the confidence of these two factors moving 
forward, these probabilities will be adjusted as necessary in subsequent 
outlook packages. Should El Niño materialize as currently favored, potential 
impacts during the late summer and early autumn support a very slight tilt 
toward below normal temperatures for an area near the Great Lakes, although 
confidence is low at this time as highlighted by the very minor tilt away from 
climatological probabilities. Over this same period and continuing to 
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 2026-2027, odds for above normal temperatures increase across 
the state of Alaska. 
 
El Niño considerations are the basis for a gradual increase in probabilities 
for above normal temperatures along the northern tier of the CONUS approaching 
and entering the Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) 2027 season as is the forecast of EC for the 
southern half of the CONUS. The remaining forecast leads are primarily based on 
long term temperature trends  (i.e. OCN). 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The AMJ 2026 precipitation outlook favors below normal seasonal precipitation 
amounts for a region from the Pacific Northwest and northern California 
eastward to the Intermountain West, central Rockies and parts of the central 
High Plains. This highlighted area is supported by moderate consensus in NMME 
and C3S model forecasts, the CA forecast tool anchored to soil moisture 
anomalies, as well as a consistent signature from reviewed natural analog 
forecast information. Favored above normal precipitation is forecast for the 
eastern Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast based on modest 
agreement in dynamical model guidance and long term wet precipitation trends . 
In the Southeast U.S., although the April monthly outlook highlights favored 
drier than normal conditions, the above normal precipitation forecast for AMJ 
2026 is made and plausible as the majority of seasonal precipitation amounts 
fall in this region, especially Florida, from mid May through the end of June. 
Dynamical model guidance favors above-normal precipitation for the west coast 
of Alaska. 
 
Evolution of the outlooks through ASO 2026 depict a forecast of an active 
Southwest U.S. monsoon, with an enhanced likelihood for above normal 
precipitation beginning in MJJ 2026 for southern areas that expands northward 
through the July-August-September (JAS) 2026 season before easing in 
September-October-November (SON) 2026. The rationale for the forecast is 
prospects for above normal heat during the pre-monsoon period due to 
anomalously dry soil moisture conditions, considerably below normal snowpack 
and favored above normal temperatures in preceding seasons. The NMME and C3S 
ensemble forecasts also have a modest consensus for favored above normal 
precipitation in this region, although there is considerable spread and so 
uncertainty. 
 
Along with the wet signal highlighted across the monsoon region, an area of 
favored below normal precipitation is forecast for the central and southern 
Plains initially introduced during JJA 2026 and continuing for JAS 2026 and to 
a lesser degree during ASO 2026. The CA forecast tool anchored to anomalous 
soil moisture and NMME calibrated model guidance probabilities support this 
highlighted area. 
 
Model guidance (early leads) and potential El Nino impacts (later leads during 
summer and autumn months) support enhanced odds of below normal precipitation 
for parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through autumn 2026. 
Long term wet precipitation trends  and modest consensus from dynamical model 
guidance is the basis for favored above normal precipitation along the eastern 
seaboard through ASO 2026. Thereafter, slightly elevated probabilities for 
above normal precipitation are added along the southern tier of the U.S. from 
SON 2026 through JFM 2027 consistent with a slightly elevated increase in the 
odds of El Niño and associated impacts in these areas. Along these lines, a 
very slight tilt toward favored below normal precipitation is depicted near the 
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes for DJF 2026-2027 and JFM 2027. For Alaska, an 
increase in the likelihood for above normal precipitation is forecast for the 
southern half of the state from ASO 2026 through OND 2026 as shown by an 
objective, skill weighted consolidation of statistical and where available 
dynamical model guidance agree. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Apr 16 2026 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$