Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
The ongoing El Nino event continues to strengthen, and an El Nino advisory 
remains in effect and is favored to continue through Spring 2027. The seasonal 
outlooks for the upcoming winter and spring are heavily influenced by this very 
strong event. 
 
The Temperature Outlook for Nov-Dec-Jan (NDJ) 2026-2027 favors above-normal 
seasonal mean temperatures for eastern Alaska, the northern tier and western 
third of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), south Florida, and the Ohio Valley and 
mid-Atlantic regions. The highest odds of warmer than normal conditions are 
located over Southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. 
Near-normal seasonal average temperatures are favored for much of the Southeast. 
 
There is an elevated likelihood of above-normal seasonal precipitation amounts 
for much of California, the Southwest, the Central and Southern Plains, the 
Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast and along the eastern seaboard. The 
greatest likelihood for wetter than normal conditions is forecast for the 
Southeast and Florida. Below-normal precipitation is favored for much of 
interior Alaska, the Northern Rockies and High Plains, and parts of the Great 
lakes region. 
 
Equal chances (EC, white areas) are forecast for areas where probabilities for 
each category of seasonal mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation 
amounts are forecast to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
El Nino conditions are strongly in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean as shown 
by both oceanic and atmospheric indicators. Above-average relative sea surface 
temperature anomalies (SSTs) exist along the equator from just east of the Date 
Line (160 E) to the South America coast. Large positive SST anomalies of 
greater than +2.0 degrees C are depicted eastward of 160 W along the equator 
with areas of +4.0 degrees C present off the South America coast to 120 W. 
Below-average SSTs are present in the western Pacific and in the typical 
horseshoe pattern both north and south of the equatorial extension of warmer 
water along the equator. The latest weekly values of the Nino3.4, Nino3 and 
Nino1+2 SST indexes are +2.4, +3.4 and +4.4 degrees C respectively. 
Considerable remaining fuel is present for further strengthening of this El 
Nino event as a large reservoir of above-normal ocean temperatures continues to 
be indicated from 170 W to the South America coast and to a depth of greater 
than 200 m. 
 
The atmosphere has strongly responded to these ongoing ocean conditions as 
early as this summer as shown by the highly anomalous tropical cyclone seasons 
in the central and eastern Pacific (well above) and Atlantic (well below) 
basins. There is greatly enhanced (suppressed) convection over the central and 
eastern Pacific (Indonesia and western Pacific). Low level (850-hPa) westerly 
wind anomalies are large and indicate a substantial weakening of the normal 
trade winds. At upper levels (200-hPa), easterly wind anomalies with 
anti-cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator in the central 
Pacific are present, indicative of a strong, maturing El Nino episode. 
 
A review of the northern hemisphere snow cover extent shows a highly variable 
pattern with the most substantial anomalies being areas of below-average 
coverage in north-central Asia and northern Canada. 
 
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is currently in its westerly phase and is 
forecast to remain so throughout the winter into Spring 2027. 
 
The negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains in place 
when viewing the latest observations. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The CPC objective, skill weighted consolidation and North American Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME) relative Nino3.4 SST outlooks forecast a further increase in 
the relative Nino3.4 index value to near +3.0 and +3.5 degrees C respectively 
with a general peak in anomalous values during the NDJ 2026-2027 season. The 
official CPC ENSO Outlook forecasts high probabilities (80%) for at least a 
strong El Nino event to continue through the Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) 2027 season and 
favors an El Nino event of any strength to continue through the Mar-Apr-May 
(MAM) 2027. ENSO neutral is then favored through May-Jun-Jul (MJJ) 2027. 
Thereafter, the CPC consolidated SST forecasts potential La Nina conditions 
during autumn 2027. 
 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
The current El Nino event, associated conditions and potential impacts are a 
primary driver in the seasonal outlook package through the Spring 2027 season 
with close inspection of some of the historically strong El Nino events. Other 
physical subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate drivers considered in preparing 
the outlooks are the QBO, ENSO relationship with the stratospheric polar vortex 
(winter seasons), coastal SSTs in some areas and the negative phase of the 
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). 
 
The NMME and Copernicus Climate System (C3S) dynamical model ensemble 
prediction systems and their participant models are utilized, as well as 
several statistical and hybrid forecast tools and long-term temperature and 
precipitation trends . 
 
Experimental National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal 
Forecast System (SFS) model guidance and an internal Machine Learning forecast 
system targeting the S2S time scale are also consulted. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2026 TO NDJ 2027 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
The NDJ 2026-2027 Temperature Outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean 
temperatures for eastern Alaska, the western third of the CONUS, the northern 
tier from the Pacific Northwest eastward to include the Midwest and much of the 
East, and southern Florida. The highest odds for warmer than normal conditions 
are forecast for southeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska, the Pacific 
Northwest to the northern Plains, Great Lakes and interior Northeast. This is 
consistent with typically observed conditions during strong El Nino events. 
Statistical, hybrid and dynamical model guidance is very consistent across the 
board for this favored outcome. 
 
There is more uncertainty in seasonal mean temperatures across the southern 
tier of the CONUS. Near-normal temperatures are favored for the Southeast and 
northern Florida where a mixture of outcomes is indicated by forecast guidance 
and where near-normal conditions have been observed during some of the 
historically strong El Nino events of the past. Similarly, large spread and 
varying forecast outcomes in forecast tools and during strong El Nino events 
supports the forecast of Equal Chances (EC) for either above-, near- or 
below-normal seasonal mean temperatures over the Southwest and parts of the 
southern Plains. 
 
The evolution of the Temperature Outlooks from Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 2026-2027 
through MAM 2027 maintain the NDJ forecast pattern in large order and are 
consistent with strong El Nino events through these seasons with additional 
attention paid to some of the historically strong events. Some exceptions 
include a slight shift eastward and southward for the forecast area of 
near-normal temperatures in the Southeast and Florida. This near-normal area 
ends by the Feb-Mar-Apr (FMA) 2027 season. 
 
An important note about the Southeast CONUS including Florida, is that the 
dynamical model guidance from ensemble systems are highlighting elevated odds 
(in some cas es quite strongly) for below-normal temperatures as the seasons 
progress and this maximizes during the JFM and FMA seasons. It is felt that the 
dynamical model guidance is too sensitive to forecast above-normal 
precipitation and overestimating cooler daytime temperatures - especially 
during the second half of the winter season. In contrast, the statistical 
guidance favors near- to above-normal temperatures for these seasons. This 
guidance factors in positive long-term temperature trends  that are likely 
amplified by warmer-than-normal nighttime temperatures driven by increased 
moisture, cloudiness and precipitation. 
 
During the FMA and MAM 2027 seasons, there is enough consensus in statistical, 
hybrid and dynamical model guidance for parts of the Southwest CONUS to favor 
below-normal temperatures in this area. This signal is also observed in some of 
the very strong El Nino events of the past, to varying degrees. Another change 
over these seasons is a slight lowering of probabilities for above-normal 
temperatures in the northern Plains during FMA to Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) 2027. 
 
Two additional considerations when preparing the outlook include (1) how the 
current easterly phase of the QBO may impact the strength of the stratospheric 
polar vortex (SPV) and (2) the ongoing negative phase of the PDO. 
 
This winter, the QBO is forecast to be in its westerly phase and expected to 
continue through the extended winter months. The SPV is typically stronger and 
more stable under westerly QBO and El Nino conditions, both of which will be in 
place this winter. The potential prospects of a more stable SPV slightly 
decreases the odds for Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events or other 
undulations that may lead to negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) periods. This is 
supportive of above-normal temperatures in mid-latitude areas in general and 
consistent with the forecast of above-normal temperatures across the northern 
and eastern CONUS. 
 
It is somewhat difficult to ascertain the potential influence of the negative 
phase of the PDO given the very strong El Nino events of 1997-1998 and 
2015-2016 both occurred during the positive phase of the PDO. Although the PDO 
is in its negative phase, it is felt that given the very strong El Nino event 
that its influence during the winter seasons may be minimal. 
 
The outlooks from AMJ 2027 onwards are based on the ENSO-OCN forecast tool 
which is based on the "perfect prog" forecast from the CPC SST consolidation 
(ENSO component) and long term temperature trends  (Optimal Climate Normal). 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
For the NDJ 2026-2027 Precipitation Outlook, there is an elevated likelihood of 
above-normal seasonal precipitation amounts for much of California and the 
Southwest, the central and southern Plains, and the Southeast and along the 
Eastern Seaboard. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the northern 
Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes as well as much of western and central 
interior Alaska. Anticipated impacts related to the ongoing El Nino event 
primarily inform the forecast. 
 
Additional attention to the historically strong El Nino events of the past show 
considerable wetness observed across much of the CONUS and extended well north 
along the Eastern Seaboard. Dynamical model guidance across ensemble prediction 
systems is in very good agreement with this premise. Above-normal precipitation 
in the Southeast is one of the most reliable signals  from El Nino events and 
dynamical model guidance shows very high probabilities for wetter than average 
conditions in this region. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceed 70% for 
some areas in the extreme Southeast and northern Florida through the JFM 2027 
season and decrease slowly through AMJ 2027. 
 
An enhanced and southward and eastward shifted Pacific Jet supports elevated 
probabilities for above-normal precipitation for much of the West Coast 
including areas extending as far north as the Oregon coast. The forecast 
probabilities across the West Coast and Southwest are somewhat lower than the 
Southeast CONUS due to a greater range of potential outcomes as indicated by 
statistical and dynamical model guidance. 
 
Moving through the winter and spring 2027 seasons, the areas of favored 
below-normal precipitation over the northern Rockies and Great Lakes remain 
generally consistent with a gradual slight northward shift and these areas 
become combined by the MAM 2027 season. 
 
The Pacific Jet is shifted southward and eastward during El Nino events and so 
the storm track and associated precipitation tends to be located south of most 
of mainland Alaska. Thus, below-normal precipitation is favored for much of 
mainland Alaska. Dynamical model guidance and statistical forecast tools are in 
strong agreement for drier than normal conditions for this area through the FMA 
2027 season. 
 
Similar to temperature, the precipitation outlooks after AMJ 2027 are based on 
the ENSO-OCN forecast tool and tend toward slight La Nina impacts at the very 
last leads during autumn 2027. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Nov 19 2026 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$