Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL 2026 
 
The June 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are updated 
considering input from short-term (Days 1-7 precipitation), extended-range 
(6-10 Day and Week-2), and subseasonal (Weeks 3-4) forecasts. This includes 
dynamical model guidance from the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 
(GEFSv12), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and 
Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) for the 6-10 Day, Week-2, and Weeks 3-4 
periods, and experimental extended monthly runs of the GEFSv12 and ECMWF. 
Impacts from background climate states, such as the El Nino Southern 
Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are considered, as well 
as local impacts from coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil 
moisture. 
 
An El Nino Advisory remains active, indicating present El Nino conditions with 
above-average equatorial SSTs and consistent atmospheric circulation anomalies 
across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Latest weekly SST departures in 
the Nino 3.4 region reached +1.2 degrees C, an increase from the +0.9 degrees C 
noted in the mid-month Outlook. Given that teleconnections are weaker in summer 
in general, we expect some potential moderation of probabilities given the 
active El Nino rather than it being the primary driver. The MJO has been 
alternating through periods of destructive and constructive interference with 
El Nino, and is currently weak. However, dynamical models  are in better 
agreement on an amplifying MJO as it moves across the Pacific and 
constructively interferes with the El Nino base state. By early July, the MJO 
is expected to emerge in phases 6 and 7, with potential for further 
amplification. The MJO may moderate probabilities over the contiguous United 
States (CONUS) but is not considered a primary driver. Locally, coastal SSTs 
surrounding Alaska are largely below-average, except near the southwestern part 
of the state. Off the West Coast, below-average SSTs have expanded near the 
Northwest, juxtaposed by above-average SSTs off the Southwest. Along the East 
and Gulf Coasts, SSTs were previously below-average but have since warmed to 
above-average around Florida. 
 
Dynamical models (ECMWF and GEFSv12) favor troughing over Alaska and the 
western half of the CONUS very early in July, accompanied by ridging to the 
south and west of these centers and over the eastern half of the CONUS. 
However, the western trough is forecast to quickly move out of the region 
within the first three days of July. As July progresses, high pressure is 
forecast to build across the western and central CONUS, with ridging over the 
West by the end of July. Forecast confidence decreases toward mid-July due to 
diverging model solutions, with ECMWF favoring a more eastward ridge placement 
and GEFSv12 more westward. As the high pressure retrogrades, neutral or weakly 
below-average heights are possible over the East. Troughing is slightly more 
persistent over Alaska through at least the early parts of July, but the 
pattern weakens and retrogrades after about the middle of the month. 
Ultimately, this transient pattern leads to uncertainty in the monthly outlook, 
particularly for the eastern and central CONUS and Alaska. 
 
The updated Monthly Temperature Outlook maintains a pattern similar to the 
mid-month release, with slight modifications to reflect the latest guidance. 
Above-normal temperatures are indicated over the western third of the CONUS, 
across the southern tier, and along the East Coast to New England.  Compared to 
the mid-month Outlook, above-normal temperature probabilities over the West are 
maintained but reach 50 to 60% chances instead of 60 to 70% chances. This 
slight moderation reflects the short-lived but cooler start to the month and 
uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the eventual western ridge. 
Early July troughing is forecast to shift out of the region quickly enough that 
a tilt toward below-normal temperatures is not favored for the month overall, 
and above-normal temperatures are still supported by monthly CFSv2, 
experimental monthly GEFSv12 guidance, and feedback from below-average soil 
moisture. Further to the south, probabilities for above-normal temperatures are 
lowered due to the potential moderating effects of above-normal precipitation. 
In contrast, probabilities are increased over the Southern Plains as compared 
to the mid-month Temperature Outlook, reaching 60 to 70% chances over parts of 
Texas. This heightened confidence is supported by above-average temperature 
trends, and consistent signals  in monthly CFSv2, experimental GEFSv12 and ECMWF 
models. Along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, enhanced probabilities of 
50 to 60% for above-normal temperatures are maintained, driven by the potential 
for extreme heat early in July associated with a strong subtropical high. 
 
An area of equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures 
stretches from the eastern Northern and Central Plains eastward across the 
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest, the northern Middle Mississippi Valley, 
and the Upper and Lower Great Lakes into the northern Ohio Valley. The 
transitory nature of the retrograding ridge and model differences in the ridge 
placement later in the month drive some of this uncertainty. Additionally, the 
potential emergence of an active MJO in phase 6/7, combined with El Nino 
conditions, could favor cooler temperatures over this region. However, because 
summer teleconnections are typically weaker and often overshadowed by long-term 
trends, EC is favored over below-normal probabilities. The temperature forecast 
for Alaska is complex due to an anticipated mid-month pattern shift. A weak 
tilt toward below-normal temperatures is indicated for southwest Alaska based 
on early-to-mid-July guidance and persistent below-normal SSTs, while 
above-normal temperatures are favored in the northeast, primarily supported by 
Week 3-4 model guidance and above-average temperature trends . 
 
Given the transient height pattern along with overall uncertainty by the second 
half of July, a somewhat unamplified precipitation pattern emerges as July 
progresses. Model guidance predicts spotty above- and below-normal 
precipitation across many areas, but primarily over the eastern CONUS, and 
lacks a consistent signal. One exception is the interior western CONUS, where 
an area of elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation stretches from 
the Northern Rockies to the Southwest, which is similar to the region depicted 
in the mid-month Outlook. These above-normal probabilities are supported by the 
monthly CFSv2, as well as the 6-10 Day, Week-2, and Weeks 3-4 Precipitation 
Outlooks. The active El Nino also favors shifting this precipitation further 
north and west than its typical July position. Additionally, because July 
precipitation climatology is quite dry over the northern portions of this 
region, it will not take much rainfall to tilt the monthly average into the 
above-normal category. Probabilities for below-normal precipitation are 
maintained over the Pacific Northwest from the mid-month Outlook, with minor 
modifications based on updated guidance. Namely, recent monthly CFSv2 forecasts 
extend the below-normal precipitation probability slightly further south into 
coastal Oregon. A weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation is also 
maintained from the mid-month Outlook over the north-central CONUS. This is 
driven by a persistent dry signal in the GEFSv12 spanning the 6-10 Day through 
Week 4 periods, which aligns with mid-month forecasts from the North American 
Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) 
multi-model ensemble. Similar reasoning supports a tilt toward below-normal 
precipitation over parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Both 
of these regional dry signals  are additionally supported by weak but potential 
impacts from El Nino and the MJO. Precipitation forecasts over the eastern 
CONUS are weak and inconsistent across all timescales and tools as noted above; 
as such, EC is favored for a broad region across the central and eastern CONUS. 
However, a weak tilt toward above-normal precipitation is favored over New 
England, where the above-normal signal is most consistent across timescales and 
is supported by long-term trends . The precipitation forecast for Alaska is 
again complicated by a potential mid-July pattern shift as early-month 
troughing moves out of the region, and probabilities are overall weak. A slight 
tilt toward above-normal precipitation is maintained over northwestern Alaska, 
driven by long-term trends , the NMME, and the C3S. A weak tilt toward 
below-normal precipitation over the southeastern mainland and Southeast Alaska 
is also maintained, but has been expanded westward, reflecting Week 3-4 
guidance that favors a broader area of below-normal precipitation. 
 
****************************************************************************** 
***** Previous mid-month discussion below ***** 
****************************************************************************** 
 
The July 2026 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are primarily based on 
dynamical models, local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, decadal 
trends, and land surface conditions. Equatorial SSTs are above-average across 
the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with the latest weekly SST departures in 
the Nino3.4 region reaching 0.9 degrees Celsius above-average. An El Nino 
Advisory is active, indicating that El Nino conditions are present and 
atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are 
consistent with El Nino. Although an El Nino Advisory is active, its influence 
on the July 2026 Outlooks is considered minor because the episode recently 
emerged and summer teleconnections are typically weak. The Madden-Julian 
Oscillation (MJO), which had been moving eastward into the Western Hemisphere, 
has recently weakened, though models suggest it could reemerge over the Western 
Pacific in early July but disagree on the potential amplitude. Due to model 
uncertainty and weak summer teleconnections, the MJO and El Nino serve as 
secondary factors to adjust probabilities rather than primary drivers. 
Additional guidance includes the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), 
the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model ensemble, monthly 
forecasts from the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), an experimental 
multiple linear regression (MLR) tool which estimates the influences of the El 
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), MJO, and decadal trends  , and a consolidation 
that includes influences of ENSO, decadal trends  , and calibrated NMME output. 
Weeks 3-4 forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 
(GEFSv12), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and 
CFSv2 models that cover the period to about mid-July are also considered. 
 
Above-normal temperatures are favored across a large portion of the western 
Contiguous United States (CONUS), stretching across the southern tier, and 
along much of the East Coast to New England. Probabilities are most enhanced 
over the interior West, reaching 60 to 70% chances of above-normal 
temperatures. Models depict remarkable consistency regarding this probability, 
with both the NMME and C3S ensembles favoring this signal, as well as 
consistency across daily runs of the CFSv2. Furthermore, this signal is 
reinforced by below-average soil moisture, which can enhance above-normal 
temperatures, and above-average decadal temperature trends . The early part of 
July is also forecast to be above-normal as depicted in the Weeks 3-4 
Temperature Outlook released this past Friday. Similar reasoning supports the 
enhanced above-normal probabilities that stretch into the Southwest and Texas; 
however, probabilities are comparatively lower there due to the chance of 
above-normal precipitation and weaker model probabilities. Probabilities are 
also enhanced (50 to 60% chances) over coastal parts of the Gulf States and 
into the Carolinas. Models were again consistent on the above-normal 
temperatures over the coastal parts of the Gulf States, and the chance of early 
July extreme temperatures along with dry soils over the Mid-Atlantic supports 
the northward extent of these higher probabilities. Persistently cooler SSTs 
moderates probabilities toward New England, though a weak tilt toward 
above-normal temperatures is still favored. An area of Equal Chances (EC) of 
above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures is indicated from the eastern half 
of the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes, stretching southward to parts of the 
Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley regions. Contrary to 
the consistent signals  for above-normal temperatures over the remainder of the 
CONUS, this region had lower probabilities in models, with CFSv2 predicting 
weakly enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperatures in some of the 
prior daily runs, though inconsistently. Moreover, though the influence from El 
Nino is weak in summer, it may still slightly increase the chances of 
below-normal temperatures. Given that the potential for below-normal 
temperatures stemming from El Nino is typically weak and CFSv2 shows 
inconsistency in this signal, a tilt toward EC is favored rather than 
below-normal. Tools are mixed over Alaska, however, a weak above-normal signal 
emerges from the models despite inter-model spread. In addition, though weak, 
the summer influence from a strong El Nino is toward above-normal temperatures, 
and decadal trends  lean above-normal. Despite the mixed dynamical model 
forecasts, a weak tilt toward above-normal temperatures (33 to 40% chance) is 
indicated over the interior mainland of Alaska and Southeast Alaska. EC 
surrounds this weak probability due to the potential for moderation of 
temperatures given persistent below-average SSTs surrounding Alaska. 
 
Compared to temperatures, signals  in models and tools are more mixed when 
considering precipitation. As such, probabilities are overall low and there are 
larger areas of EC. However, a few areas of consistency stand out when 
reviewing all of the support. A broad area of enhanced above-normal 
precipitation probabilities stretches from the Southwest northward through 
parts of the Intermountain West and Central and Southern Rockies and into 
southern parts of Idaho and western Wyoming. The positioning of this 
above-normal probability over the western CONUS is consistent with an El Nino 
summer, which can shift this precipitation pattern northward and westward of 
its climatological position. While El Nino summers, particularly during an 
emerging event, can tilt toward below-average precipitation over southern 
Arizona, models from the NMME, C3S, and CFSv2 favor above-normal precipitation 
extending to the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico. The Week 3-4 
Precipitation Outlook also favors above-normal precipitation across this entire 
region; thus, probabilities are damped but remain above-normal rather than EC 
or below-normal. Dynamical models  including C3S, NMME, and CFSv2 favor 
below-normal precipitation over the North-Central CONUS, though with weak 
probabilities, and this is also supported by below-average precipitation 
trends. Similar reasoning supports the tilt toward below-normal precipitation 
over the Pacific Northwest. An area of increased above-normal precipitation 
chances is indicated just south of the Great Lakes, including much of the Ohio, 
Tennessee, and Middle Mississippi Valleys, which is supported by dynamical 
models and above-average precipitation trends  . Over Alaska, tools were again 
quite mixed and did not show much of a consistent signal. However, a slight 
tilt toward above-normal precipitation emerges in NMME and C3S over the 
northwestern part of the state, additionally supported by the OCN tool. The 
weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation over southeastern mainland and 
Southeast Alaska is primarily supported by dynamical model agreement. 
 
FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Aug ... will be issued on Thu Jul 16 2026 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
$$