Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
La Niña conditions are present, as represented in current oceanic and 
atmospheric observations. A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is 
expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely 
persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 
2026). 
 
The March-April-May (MAM) 2026 temperature outlook favors above normal 
temperatures for southern and central portions of the western Contiguous United 
States (CONUS), the southern and central Plains, the Lower and Middle 
Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic. 
A tilt toward above normal temperatures is also indicated for northwestern 
Alaska. The highest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above normal 
temperatures are forecast across parts of the Southwest. Below normal 
temperatures are modestly favored for much of eastern Alaska and parts of the 
western Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and parts of the adjacent Red 
River Valley. 
 
The MAM 2026 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of below 
normal precipitation amounts across the southern two-thirds of the western 
CONUS and for adjacent areas of the central and southern Plains. Below normal 
precipitation is modestly favored for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of 
mainland Alaska. The greatest chances of below normal precipitation (above 50 
percent probability) are indicated for parts of the Southwest. Above normal 
precipitation is more likely for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and adjacent 
areas of the Mississippi Valley. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is 
also indicated for the northwest coast of mainland Alaska. The greatest chances 
of above normal precipitation (greater than 40 percent) is indicated across the 
central Great Lakes. 
 
Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category 
of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts 
are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
La Niña continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures 
(SSTs) observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly 
Niño-3.4 index value was -0.7°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and 
easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.1°C and 0.5°C, respectively. The 
equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) 
significantly increased, reflecting the strengthening and expansion of 
above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric 
anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects 
of La Niña. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western 
equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across 
the east-central equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection was weakly evident 
near the Date Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with enhanced 
convection located off the equator. The traditional and equatorial Southern 
Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere 
system remained consistent with La Niña. 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the National 
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 
(CFSv2), favor the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team 
consensus also reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the 
Northern Hemisphere summer 2026. For the late summer and beyond, there is a 
50-60% chance of El Niño forming, though model uncertainty remains 
considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy. 
In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in 
February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through 
the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). 
 
According to the ENSO team, there is a 75% chance of a transition to 
ENSO-neutral conditions during January-February-March (JFM) 2026. ENSO-neutral 
conditions are likely to persist through at least the Northern Hemisphere late 
spring before potentially shifting toward El Nino in the summer and early fall 
of 2026. While the chance of El Nino is higher than the chance of ENSO-neutral 
or La Nina for those seasons, model predictions remain uncertain due to lower 
forecast accuracy as we progress through the spring months and into summer. 
Some lingering La Nina influence is expected for FMA 2026, but the potential 
influence of El Nino later in the year is too uncertain to determine at this 
time. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, the CFSv2, and the Copernicus (C3S) 
multi-model ensemble system were used extensively for the first six leads when 
they are available, as was the objective, historical skill-weighted 
consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that 
combines both dynamical and statistical forecast information. Composites 
derived from the current and forecast state of ENSO were also utilized. 
Analysis of antecedent conditions such as extratropical sea surface 
temperatures, snow cover anomalies, and sea ice extent played were considered 
where appropriate. At later leads, decadal trends in temperature and 
precipitation were increasingly relied upon in creating the seasonal outlooks. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MAM 2026 TO MAM 2027 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
One of the major forecast challenges for the upcoming spring is incorporating 
the expected transition from La Niña to ENSO neutral conditions. Composites 
derived from the recent and forecast evolution of ENSO generally favor warmth 
across much of the West and an axis of colder than normal temperatures 
stretching from eastern Alaska southeastward to parts of the northern tier of 
the CONUS. Dynamical model guidance is much warmer but still reflects a 
relative minima in above normal temperature probabilities from eastern Alaska 
to portions of the north-central and northeastern CONUS. While there are large 
disagreements in the category of the forecast probabilities, the configuration 
of the overall temperature pattern is consistent among dynamical and 
statistical guidance. The MAM outlook represents a compromise between the two 
sets of solutions. In general, there is very good agreement among both 
statistical and dynamical model guidance on favoring warmth across the southern 
two-thirds of the western CONUS. Probabilities of above normal temperatures 
exceed 60 percent across parts of the Southwest where the warm signal was the 
strongest. Conversely, below normal temperatures are favored for eastern Alaska 
and for the western Great Lakes, and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and 
adjacent areas of the Red River Valley. These areas of favored below normal 
temperatures are consistent with the northwest to southeast axis of reduced 
above normal temperature probabilities reflected in both statistical and 
dynamical model guidance. Enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures 
were kept modest to reflect the differences between the colder statistical and 
warmer dynamical model guidance. Uncertainty is also high across the eastern 
half of the CONUS, where statistical ENSO composites reflect less confidence in 
warmth relative to model guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced 
probabilities of above normal temperatures are indicated from the Southern and 
Central Plains eastward to the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Tennessee 
Valley, Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and parts of the adjacent Mid-Atlantic, 
where model guidance and trend show relatively strong warm signals. Western 
Alaska is also an area of high uncertainty due to weak or conflicting guidance. 
A weak tilt toward above normal temperatures is indicated for northwestern 
Alaska and parts of the Aleutians, following dynamical model guidance and 
trends. 
 
From April-May-June (AMJ) through June-July-August (JJA), a notable northward 
expansion of enhanced odds for above normal temperatures is forecast across the 
CONUS. Above normal temperatures are favored for the entire southern two-thirds 
of the CONUS in AMJ and overspread the entire CONUS by JJA. This extensive 
coverage of increased above normal temperature chances is supported by 
dynamical model guidance and trends, especially across the western CONUS. 
Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across the 
Southwest and adjacent Great Basin with greater than 60 percent chance of above 
normal temperatures noted for the Four Corners. The strongest signal for warmth 
shifts north across the interior West during the summer with greater than 50 
percent chances of above normal temperatures reaching the Northern Rockies by 
JJA. The consensus of dynamical and statistical guidance has a relatively 
weaker warm signal across the eastern CONUS. Therefore, EC is indicated in the 
Great Lakes and Northeast in AMJ. By JJA, increased chances of above normal 
temperatures envelops the entire East from south to north but with only 
modestly enhanced probabilities. Uncertainty abounds across Alaska between AMJ 
and JJA as warm dynamical model guidance clashes with colder ENSO composites 
and weak trends. EC is indicated for the majority of the state during spring 
before yielding to a tilt toward warm in eastern areas as the cold signal in 
the ENSO statistical tools begins to diminish. By JAS, a transition to El Niño 
becomes more likely, increasing uncertainty in the forecast pattern. 
Statistical ENSO and trend guidance generally depict less confidence in warmth 
across the central CONUS as we approach the fall and beyond. EC is introduced 
to parts of the southern and central Plains and adjacent areas of the 
Mississippi Valley during JAS. This EC area expands across central CONUS during 
ASO as uncertainty increases. Large areas of EC dominate the central CONUS by 
DJF and beyond. Increased chances for above normal temperatures are indicated 
for both the west and east coasts of the CONUS from JAS through at least JFM 
2027 owing largely to recent trends. Alaska leans mostly warm from the late 
fall through next winter due to a combination of trends and statistical ENSO 
guidance. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The MAM precipitation outlook features increased chances of above normal 
precipitation from the Great Lakes southward to the Ohio Valley and areas of 
the adjacent Mississippi Valley, generally consistent with a La Niña 
signature. The general consensus of dynamical and statistical tools support 
below normal precipitation for the southern two-thirds of the West as well as 
much of the adjacent central and southern Plains. Probabilities of below normal 
precipitation exceed 50 percent across parts of the Southwest where recent 
trends show the strongest dry signal. Uncertainty is high across the southeast 
due to a dichotomy between drier dynamical model guidance and wetter trends. 
Therefore EC is indicated for this area. EC is also indicated along the 
immediate East Coast owing to weak signals among dynamical model guidance. EC 
is also indicated for the northwestern CONUS as above normal precipitation is 
favored in the monthly outlook for March but then the guidance trends drier 
deeper into spring. Dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement in 
supporting below normal precipitation across Southeast Alaska and adjacent 
areas of the mainland. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated 
for the west coast of the mainland, consistent with the C3S, CBaM, and trend. 
However, probabilities were kept modest due to relatively weak signals and lack 
of support from the remainder of the suite of statistical and dynamical model 
guidance. 
 
As the influences of La Niña wane deeper into Spring, the area of elevated 
above normal precipitation chances over the Great Lakes diminishes 
substantially in AMJ and is removed entirely by MJJ. A dry signal emerges 
across parts of the western Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley from MJJ 
to JJA and migrates westward to the northern Plains during JAS, driven largely 
by trends. Conversely, a new area of increased above normal precipitation 
chances emerges across the Southeast by AMJ, driven primarily by the CBaM and 
trend. This wet signal migrates northward along the East Coast during MJJ and 
JJA, with support from dynamical model guidance. This wet signal slowly 
diminishes to the mid-Atlantic area and adjacent areas of the Appalachians by 
SON as confidence decreases. Farther to the south, a dry signal develops over 
the Florida Peninsula from JAS through SON, peaking in coverage during ASO, 
possibly resulting from an emerging El Niño and associated reduced tropical 
activity. Further to the west, dynamical models and trends generally support a 
northward progression of favored dryness from the Great Basin and central 
Rockies to the Northern Rockies from AMJ through JAS. A persistent dry signal 
is noted eastward to the central Plains from AMJ through JJA from the C3S and 
CBaM, with some support from trends. By MJJ, an enhanced monsoon signal emerges 
across parts of the Southwest, supported by the CFsv2, C3S, and the CBaM. This 
enhanced monsoon signal, would be consistent with dryness in the Plains, as the 
precipitation pattern tends to be anticorrelated between these two regions. 
Slightly elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast to 
persist from MJJ through ASO for parts of the Southwest, related to the 
potential of an enhanced monsoon. Across Alaska, slightly elevated 
probabilities of above normal precipitation persist from AMJ through JJA, 
initially supported by the C3S and the final consolidation during AMJ and then 
by trend from MJJ to JJA . Thereafter, above normal precipitation is favored 
across southwestern mainland Alaska during JAS and spreading eastward along the 
South Coast by ASO, supported by ENSO composites, trend, and the CBaM. The 
forecast for longer lead times later next fall, winter, and early spring 2027 
are informed mostly by trend. These longer leads are characterized by slight 
tilts toward above normal precipitation initially along the East Coast during 
NDJ and then migrating northward and westward toward the Northeast, Great 
Lakes, and Ohio Valley from DJF through FMA, and eventually to the Upper 
Mississippi Valley during MAM 2027. Farther to the west, a slight tilt toward 
below normal precipitation is noted across the Central Plains during ASO 
migrating northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley during SON. Weak tilts 
toward above normal precipitation persist across parts of the South Coast and 
North Slope of Alaska during the longer leads. 
 
FORECASTER: Scott Handel 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtml 

Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Mar 19 2026 

1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
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