Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EST Thu Mar 20 2025 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2025 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies about +0.5 to +1.0 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
For January through February 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 3.20 inches (50 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 6.02 inches (159 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 4.81 inches (109 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport 9.34 inches (52 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) favor positive SST anomalies around the Hawaiian Islands in April 2025. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and Hawaii or the Big Island) for April, 2025. 
 
For the April 2025 precipitation outlook, most models of the NMME and C3S predict above normal precipitation across all of the Hawaiian Islands. Weak probabilities favoring above normal precipitation are indicated in the April precipitation outlook, supported by most dynamical model forecasts.
 
 
 





  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 Hilo  A70  72.6  0.7  A40  7.4  8.9  11.2
 Kahului  A70  74.1  0.6  A40  0.5  0.9  1.3
 Honolulu  A70  76.3  0.5  A40  0.3  0.5  0.7
 Lihue  A70  74.0  0.6  A40  1.6  1.9  2.8
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2025 - AMJ 2026 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Niña conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were above average in the eastern and far western Pacific Ocean. Below average SSTs were evident in the central Pacific Ocean. Below-average subsurface temperatures continue to prevail in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while above-average temperatures remain in the western Pacific, at depth near the Date Line, and in a shallow layer near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were westerly over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were easterly over the central Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection and precipitation was observed around the Date Line and western Pacific. Most recent dynamical and statistical models predict ENSO-neutral is favored to develop in the next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere summer (62% probability in Jun-Jul-Aug 2025). 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo for AMJ (April-May-June) through August-September-October (ASO) 2025, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as decadal timescale temperature trends . Due to weakening signals  in forecast guidance at longer leads, Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in SON (September-October-November) 2025 and extending through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from AMJ to JJA (Jun-Jul-August) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts. Dynamical model forecasts of positive SST anomalies surrounding the Hawaiian Islands also support forecasts of above normal precipitation. Due to weaker signals  in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated for equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for all of Hawaii beginning in JAS (July-August-September) 2025 and extending through longer leads.
 
 
















 Hilo
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 AMJ 2025  A70  72.9  0.5  A40  21.4  23.7  29.0
 MJJ 2025  A70  74.0  0.4  A40  20.2  27.5  29.1
 JJA 2025  A60  75.2  0.4  A40  19.4  27.2  31.4
 JAS 2025  A50  76.1  0.4   EC  25.2  28.6  33.4
 ASO 2025  A50  76.4  0.4   EC  26.1  28.8  33.3
 SON 2025   EC  76.2  0.4   EC  24.3  30.2  40.8
 OND 2025   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
 NDJ 2025   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
 DJF 2026   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
 JFM 2026   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
 FMA 2026   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 MAM 2026   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
 AMJ 2026   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
 

















 Kahului
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 AMJ 2025  A70  74.3  0.5  A40  1.2  1.6  2.2 
 MJJ 2025  A70  76.0  0.5  A40  0.7  1.1  1.8 
 JJA 2025  A65  77.7  0.4  A40  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 JAS 2025  A50  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 ASO 2025  A50  79.4  0.4   EC  0.8  1.6  2.5 
 SON 2025   EC  79.1  0.4   EC  2.1  3.3  4.8 
 OND 2025   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
 NDJ 2025   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
 DJF 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
 JFM 2026   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
 FMA 2026   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 MAM 2026   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
 

















 Honolulu
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 AMJ 2025  A70  76.3  0.4  A40  1.2  1.6  1.8 
 MJJ 2025  A70  78.2  0.4  A40  0.8  1.4  1.6 
 JJA 2025  A65  79.9  0.4  A40  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 JAS 2025  A50  81.3  0.4   EC  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 ASO 2025  A50  81.7  0.4   EC  1.6  2.4  3.1 
 SON 2025   EC  81.4  0.4   EC  2.5  4.0  5.6 
 OND 2025   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
 NDJ 2025   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
 DJF 2026   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
 JFM 2026   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
 FMA 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 MAM 2026   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
 

















 Lihue
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 AMJ 2025  A70  74.2  0.5  A40  4.7  5.5  6.0 
 MJJ 2025  A70  76.0  0.5  A40  4.9  5.4  5.9 
 JJA 2025  A65  77.7  0.4  A40  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 JAS 2025  A50  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 ASO 2025  A50  79.4  0.3   EC  6.2  7.9  8.4 
 SON 2025   EC  79.1  0.3   EC  9.2  10.0  11.2
 OND 2025   EC  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
 NDJ 2025   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
 DJF 2026   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
 JFM 2026   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
 FMA 2026   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 MAM 2026   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
 

FORECASTER: Luke He 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Apr 17, 2025.
 
 
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