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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2024
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies near zero degree Celsius were observed
over the Hawaiian islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the
previous week.
From January through May 2024, rainfall total accumulations were:
Lihue Airport 21.09 inches (130 percent of average)
Honolulu Airport 9.48 inches (123 percent of average)
Kahului Airport 8.85 inches (97 percent of average)
Hilo Airport 47.94 inches (102 percent of average)
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) generally predict near-average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through July 2024. Based primarily on these SST forecasts, surface temperatures are indicated to be Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal for all the islands through July. For the July 2024 precipitation outlook, below-normal precipitation chances are elevated for all of the island chain, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts, and consistent with the last vestiges of El Nino over the tropical Pacific. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | B50 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 11.4 |
| Kahului | EC | 79.2 | 0.4 | | B50 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Honolulu | EC | 81.4 | 0.5 | | B50 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Lihue | EC | 79.2 | 0.4 | | B50 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2024 - JAS 2025 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs are above average in the west-central Pacific Ocean, and near to below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dominated the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over a small region of the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection and precipitation was evident over parts of the Philippines and the Date Line. La Nina is favored to develop with a 65% chance during July-September and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (about 85% chance during November-January).
Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are forecast for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and the Big Island from JAS (July-August-September) to OND (October-November-December) 2024, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S. Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are favored over Hawaii islands including Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and the Big Island in NDJ (November-December-January) 2024-25, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools and the Constructed Analog (CA) tool. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore EC is indicated for Hawaii beginning in DJF (December-January-February) 2024-25 and extending through longer leads.
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from JAS 2024 to OND 2024, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in NDJ 2024-25 and continuing through longer leads. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JAS 2024 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | B60 | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2024 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | B55 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2024 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | B50 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2024 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | B40 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2024 | A40 | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JAS 2024 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | B60 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2024 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | B55 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2024 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | B50 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2024 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2024 | A40 | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JAS 2024 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | B60 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2024 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | B55 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2024 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2024 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2024 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JAS 2024 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | B60 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2024 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | B55 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2024 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | B50 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2024 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | B40 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2024 | A40 | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2025 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2025 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2025 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2025 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jul 18, 2024. |
$$ |
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