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GTH Outlook Map and Data
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Last Updated -
03/10/26
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GTH Outlook Discussion
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Last Updated -
03/10/26
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Valid -
03/18/26 - 03/31/26
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Global circulation patterns in the global tropics continue to undergo complex evolutions as frequent equatorial Rossby waves have been emerging over the Central Pacific, resulting in rounds of interference with any MJO activity traversing the globe. Over the last week the enhanced phase of the MJO has once again stalled over the Maritime Continent in the wake of a Rossby wave interaction, potentially driving the rash of tropical cyclones (TCs) that have emerged in the Australia region over the last week or so. RMM forecasts depict another potential stalling of the MJO during the forecast period, as the enhanced phase shifts into the Western Hemisphere. The Coral Sea continues to be a hot-spot for enhanced TC activity during the week 2-3 period.
Three TCs formed over the last week. On March 4, TC 25S formed in the Timor Sea several hundred miles south of Java. 25S quickly encountered unfavorable conditions and dissipated the following day. Also on March 4, TC 24P formed in the Coral Sea several hundred miles northeast of Queensland city of Port Douglas. 24P tracked southwestward and dissipated after making landfall south of Port Douglas on March 6. On March 6, TC 26S formed in the Timor Sea, very near where 25S had formed just two days prior. Like 25S, 26S encountered unfavorable conditions for further development and dissipated after tracking west into the open Indian Ocean. Additionally, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is monitoring an area designated 95W just north of Yap in the Philippine Sea, with TC genesis likely within the next 24hrs. Current guidance indicates a northwesterly track in the coming days. For the latest on 95W please refer to the JTWC.
The MJO is favored to be in phase 7-8 during the forecast period, which would tend to favor TC development along the northern coast of Australia and South Pacific. Model guidance is supportive of this possibility, with the ECMWF in particular indicating >40% chances of TC activity over the Coral Sea during the forecast period. The GEFS and Google AI models are not as robust but still indicate increased chances of TC activity through week-2 and into week-3. MJO phasing is also favorable along the northern coast of Australia, which is similarly reflected in model guidance. In week-2 a slight chance (20-40% probability) of TC genesis is indicated from the Timor Sea eastward to New Caledonia, along with a moderate probability (40-60%) covering much of the Coral Sea. Guidance from the ECMWF and Google AI models also indicate the potential for TC activity near Madagascar late in week-1 and possibly into week-2, which would be consistent with the suppressed phase of the MJO moving away from the East African coast. Therefore a slight chance of TC genesis is posted for the Mozambique Channel and the south Indian Ocean near Madagascar for week-2.
In week-3 models tend to focus potential TC activity more tightly on the northeastern coast of Australia, and a continued potential for TC activity east of Madagascar as the MJO’s suppressed phase shifts eastward. However, model guidance is less bullish in week-3 than in week-2 across the Southern Hemisphere, leading to a more conservative forecast. A slight chance for TC genesis (20-40%) is posted covering the Gulf of Carpentaria and eastward towards New Caledonia, with no areas highlighted in the Indian Ocean.
The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, the anticipated low frequency response, MJO composites, and informed by GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal, but non hazardous temperatures are indicated for much of the southern Contiguous U.S. and Mexico during week-2. For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook. Forecasts made over Africa are made in coordination with the International Desk at CPC.
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Product Release Information
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) is released once per week every Tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays.
At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via Google Meet) open to all stakeholders where the latest conditions and the newly
released outlook are shared with the opportunity to ask questions. Folks that are interested in learning more or attending these briefings should contact
Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov, Scott.Handel@noaa.gov, Adam.Allgood@noaa.gov and Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov for the required information. Each weekly outlook and GTH release briefing is
Archived and available on the website.
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Product Description
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal
temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation
integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are
depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical
development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability
intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following
Wednesday.
Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across
the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other
issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.
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Product Physical Basis
The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational
climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO),
strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves
(ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).
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Product Forecast Tools
The outlook maps are currently based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective and serve as an objective first guess. The final depiction is an
assessment of these objective forecast tools augmented by the forecaster when based on additional forecast information when appropriate to create the final product.
Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and bias-corrected dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems.
Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecast guidance products as well as raw model forecast guidance.
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Product Purpose
The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:
- Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
- Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
- Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.
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Product Partners
The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)],
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center
for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.
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Product Users and Applications
Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National
Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross,
USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors),
international weather services and various media meteorologists.
Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater
Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from
October 2011 through March 2012.
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Product Resources
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Feedback and Questions
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www.nws.noaa.gov
