During the late June, much of the eastern CONUS did miss out on meaningful precipitation coupled with anomalous heat recently, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and northern Florida where anomalous dryness and moderate to severe drought developed rapidly.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - During the late June, much of the eastern CONUS did miss out on meaningful precipitation coupled with anomalous heat recently, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and northern Florida where anomalous dryness and moderate to severe drought developed rapidly.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Following major drought improvement this past winter and into the spring, drought coverage increased during June and early July. Much of this was related to the rapid onset of drought across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Based on above-normal precipitation forecast during the remainder of July and the August-September-October (ASO) precipitation outlook leaning wet, drought removal or improvement is forecast throughout the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Upper Ohio Valley. Areas closer to and along the Central Appalachians are expected to be the slowest to improve during the outlook period.



Persistence is favored for ongoing drought areas of the Great Plains with the ASO outlook leaning dry. Development is most likely across the Central to Northern High Plains due to antecedent dryness and also the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation throughout the outlook period. Due to a relatively dry climatology, and consistent with the ASO temperature and precipitation outlooks, drought persistence or development is also forecast across the Northern to Central Rockies, Intermountain West, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Based on the ASO precipitation outlook, drought persistence is favored for the Southwest. Development is more likely across Arizona than New Mexico given recent precipitation and late July forecasts.



Removal is forecast for the lingering drought area in southeastern Alaska. Drought persistence or development is favored for Hawaii, while Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are likely to remain drought-free through the end of October.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: August 15, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion