Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April and April-May-June (AMJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for AMJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on March 17, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Due to low snowpack, below-normal precipitation from October 1, 2025 to March 18, 2026 for many areas, record heat in mid to late March, and the AMJ outlook favoring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, forecast confidence is high for persistence and development throughout the West. As of March 18, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is below 50 percent of normal for much of the Pacific Northwest, California, Great Basin, and Four Corners region. 14-day temperatures during early March have averaged 3 to 9 degrees F above normal for much of the West which resulted in an early onset of snowmelt. An unusually strong 500-hPa ridge is forecast to bring numerous daily record highs and likely March records to California, the Great Basin, and Southwest into late March. This March heat wave will only accelerate the already low snowpack. Therefore, drought development could occur as early as April in areas designated with abnormal dryness (D0) in the U.S. Drought Monitor. A majority of the development forecast aligns with both a low snowpack and where precipitation has averaged below normal since mid-November.



Forecast confidence for the West Region is high.



The largest drought coverage for the High Plains Region is designated from Colorado and Wyoming eastward through Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Similar to the West Region, SWE is running below normal across the Central Rockies. A major drought impact across the Central Great Plains is the frequent episodes of high wildfire danger. The Morrill wildfire in southwestern Nebraska has burned over a half million acres and is the largest wildfire in the state's history. Despite an increasingly wet time of year, worsening conditions the next two weeks and the AMJ outlook leaning towards below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures supports persistence. The wet climatology (35 to 50 percent of annual precipitation typically occurs during AMJ) lowers forecast confidence for the persistence and precludes a larger development forecast area. Development is most likely across southern to eastern Colorado along with western Kansas where soil moisture is declining and a multi-day period of much above-normal temperatures is forecast during late March. The development was limited to a small part of southwestern Wyoming based on current SWE.



Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is moderate.



Drought expanded and intensified across the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley this past winter, which is typical for La Niña. The AMJ outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation for much of the South Region although it leans drier for northwestern Oklahoma and the northern Texas Panhandle. Given the worsening conditions likely during late March, persistence is favored for the Southern Great Plains. However, forecast confidence is low due to the wet climatology during AMJ. Farther to the east, there are signs that early April could be wetter-than-normal and improvement is favored for eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. With EC in the AMJ precipitation outlook and warmer-than-normal temperatures favored, persistence is more likely across most of eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.



Forecast confidence for the South Region is low.



Widespread heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches) at the beginning of March resulted in a 1-category improvement to the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys. A majority of the Midwest has received more than 150 percent of its normal precipitation from mid-February to mid-March. April-May-June is a wet time of year for the Midwest as 30 to 40 percent of its annual precipitation typically occurs during this three month period. Based on recent precipitation and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation during a wet time of year, improvement and removal are the most likely outcome for the Midwest.



Forecast confidence for the Midwest Region is moderate.



Drought worsened across much of the Southeast, especially Florida, this past winter which is typical for La Niña. Since late March is forecast to be mostly dry and the climatology becomes drier later in the spring, persistence is forecast for most of the Piedmont areas of Alabama and Georgia along with the upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina. Prospects for improvement increase closer to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts where June is a wetter month and the AMJ outlook favors above-normal precipitation. Improvement across the Coastal Plain of Alabama and Georgia is consistent with where enhanced above-normal probabilities (40-50%) are forecast during AMJ. It should be noted that any improvement for Florida will probably not occur until June when their wet season ramps up. Farther to the north across the Mid-Atlantic, 30-day precipitation has averaged at or above-normal. Given the recent beneficial rainfall and the AMJ outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, improvement and removal are forecast for the Mid-Atlantic.



Forecast confidence for the Southeast Region is low.



Beneficial precipitation resulted in a decrease of drought coverage across the Northern MId-Atlantic since late February. This is expected to continue through the spring since the AMJ outlook favors above-normal precipitation. Conversely, for Northern New England, precipitation has averaged below-normal. In addition, much above normal temperatures in early March led to rapid snow melt. Given the long-term drought signal and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation in the AMJ outlook, broad-scale persistence is forecast across Northern New England. Due to high forecast uncertainty and the long-term hydrological drought impacts, persistence is also forecast for any lingering drought in Massachusetts.



Forecast confidence for the Northeast Region is moderate.



A couple of abnormal dryness areas are designated for portions of Alaska according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Since AMJ leans wet for western Mainland Alaska and there are equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation for the remainder of the state, no development is forecast at this time. However, the current abnormal dryness areas would be more vulnerable to development by June.



Forecast confidence for Alaska is moderate.



Following heavy to flooding rainfall during mid-March, major 1-category improvements were made to Hawaii in the U.S. Drought Monitor. Since the predicted longwave pattern would favor additional Kona Low formation and above-normal precipitation is favored through the end of March, any lingering drought is likely to end early this spring.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high.



Since the late winter was unusually wet, no development is expected for Puerto Rico through the end of June.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is high.



Since the late winter was unusually wet, no development is expected for Puerto Rico through the end of June.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is high.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT