Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for May and May-June-July (MJJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for MJJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on April 14, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Drought conditions expanded over the past month across the Western Region, with just over 44 percent coverage of drought as of the April 7 US Drought Monitor. While precipitation brought some relief to the northern tier, drier than average conditions and above-normal temperatures dominated the majority of the region, prompting early snowmelt across mountain ranges that already had much below-normal snow cover for the time of year. Late season precipitation is favored to overspread coastal regions, the Sierras, Cascades, and northern Rockies over the next week or so, which may help to temporarily boost moisture and ease drought conditions. However, at the seasonal time scale, below-average precipitation is favored for the Northwest. Climatological precipitation decreases considerably during the May - July period, and much of the Western Region relies on snowmelt to recharge reservoirs and streams. Therefore, despite the near-term precipitation potential, which will not substantively change the snowpack conditions, the extremely low SWE content across the Cascades, Sierras, and Rockies will become increasingly impactful throughout the forecast period. Therefore, widespread drought expansion is favored across the Northwest, and portions of California and Nevada that are already abnormally dry. Drought persistence is favored for regions already experiencing drought conditions.



Forecast confidence is high for the Western Region.



Outside of far eastern Kansas and Nebraska, which experienced some drought relief following locally heavy rainfall, widespread drought expansion and intensification occurred across the High Plains region over the last several weeks, with an area of southeastern Colorado experiencing a 3-class degradation on the US Drought Monitor between March 10 and April 7. Drought coverage has increased to 69 percent of the region, with coverage of extreme to excessive drought quadrupling over a 4-week period. The May - July period poses a considerable forecast challenge, as Gulf moisture penetrating northward can provide sufficient moisture for outbreaks of organized convection that can locally ease drought conditions. Climatological precipitation increases during this period as well, which provides opportunities for relief. However, outside of the Rockies, scant precipitation is forecast over the next week, and while wet conditions are favored during Week-2, the seasonal outlook favors equal chances or even an enhanced chance for below-normal precipitation across the central Plains. Temperatures during this period are favored to be near to above-average. Absent a clear wet signal and given the already dry soils and low streamflows coming into a period of high agricultural demand, drought persistence is the most likely outcome. Further drought development is possible across Kansas and Colorado, especially during any periods of dry, hot weather.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the High Plains Region.



Hit and miss precipitation brought spotty drought relief to portions of Texas and Oklahoma during late March and early April, but drought conditions expanded overall across the Southern Region. Drought covers nearly 87 percent of the Southern Region as of April 7, with more than a quarter of the region experiencing severe to exceptional drought. During the next 7 days, a potent storm system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall to eastern Texas and Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley. The active pattern is favored to continue into Week-2, with the most recent CPC Days 8-14 Hazards outlook noting a moderate risk for heavy rainfall across the lower Mississippi Valley. This shorter term precipitation should bring much needed relief to the region, though widespread reductions may be somewhat limited by high evapotranspiration rates. A wet pattern is favored for Texas, Louisiana, and southeastern Oklahoma during May, which is a critical time of year for moisture in these regions. Therefore, drought improvements are favored for central, eastern, and southern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, but with most of these areas experiencing severe or greater drought conditions, it is unlikely that widespread drought removal will occur through the end of July.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region.



Drought conditions as of April 7 cover just over 15 percent of the Midwest Region, which is the smallest coverage of all of the RCC regions. Drought conditions eased considerably due to several storm systems that brought widespread soaking precipitation, which recharged soils and streams as vegetation began breaking dormancy. During Week-1, another storm system is forecast to overspread the Midwest Region, bringing additional widespread precipitation. A wet signal is maintained during Week-2, and while equal chances are maintained on both the monthly and seasonal outlooks, the Midwest Region is the only portion of the contiguous United States where above-normal temperatures are not favored at these time scales. Therefore, further drought reductions are possible over the next few weeks across the Midwest, and no drought development is anticipated. Any period of dry, hot conditions across the Midwest during the summer months could provoke flash drought development, but this potential would be better covered by the monthly drought outlook and the 8-14 day US Hazards Outlook.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



The Southeast Region remains in the grip of extensive drought, with coverage exceeding 92 percent of the land area. Drought impacts have worsened considerably as evapotranspiration rates increased during the Spring, with soil moisture content extremely low across almost the entire region, and most streamflows running much below average. Little to no rainfall is forecast through the next 7 days, which, coupled with hot temperatures, will lead to further drought expansion and intensification. While there is a slightly enhanced wet signal during Week-2, the heaviest rainfall is expected to fall to the west of the Southeast Region. Equal chances are maintained during May, and the MJJ seasonal outlook shows slightly enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across the Southeast. Despite this wet signal, the extreme impacts already in place coming out of what is typically a time of moisture recharge would require sustained, heavy precipitation to overcome. Additionally, disorganized convection - a key component of summertime moisture across the Southeast - may be more limited than usual due to the very dry soils. Therefore, drought persistence is favored for much of the Southeast, with improvements limited to areas immediately adjacent to the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines, where convection is typically greater in coverage due to seabreeze fronts. The highest confidence in drought reduction exists across the Florida Peninsula, where the rainy season driven by seabreeze convergence zones typically starts in late May and early June. A potential for 2-class drought improvements is indicated across the Florida Peninsula.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southeast Region.



Precipitation in late March and early April brought some drought relief to the Northeast, especially across portions of Pennsylvania and New York along and west of the mountains. Improvements also were noted across coastal areas. Since that time, however, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures have overspread the Northeast, resulting in further degradation. Wet weather is favored to overspread much of the Northeast during Week-1, but much smaller accumulations are forecast for portions of the mid-Atlantic east of the Appalachians. Near to below-normal precipitation is favored during Week-2, and the seasonal outlook for MJJ favors above-normal precipitation for most of the Northeast except for Maine. Despite these wet signals, the lack of substantive spring recharge in many locations, especially with snowmelt mostly complete, may pose problems moving into the summer months when evapotranspiration rates are much higher. Additionally, protracted drought throughout the last year across portions of the Northeast has resulted in longer-scale impacts to groundwater, especially across New Jersey, portions of Pennsylvania, and New England. Therefore, while summertime convective precipitation may bring localized relief, drought persistence is the most likely outcome for much of the Northeast. Some improvement is indicated across Maine, due in part to the short term forecasts.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



No areas of drought are currently in place across Alaska. During the MJJ period, a pronounced dry signal is depicted in much of the forecast guidance across the Panhandle, and below-average precipitation is favored on the MJJ seasonal outlook. While some expansion of abnormal dryness is possible, large-scale drought development is not anticipated, as current snow cover across the Alaska Panhandle is near to above average.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Alaska.



A series of "Kona Low" events - southwesterly flow across the islands that brought widespread heavy precipitation to the leeward sides of the islands - resulted in substantial drought reduction across the state. Currently, only a small area of moderate drought remains across the Big Island. A wet pattern is favored over the next few weeks, with a potential for disrupted trade winds to allow additional enhanced precipitation. Based on this potential, further drought reduction is forecast.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Hawaii.



Wet conditions over the past month have overspread Puerto Rico, and there are currently no areas of drought and abnormal dryness. Dynamical model guidance shows a potential for suppressed convection across the Caribbean region during the MJJ period, which could be a response to the Pacific basin trending towards El Niño. At this time, widespread drought development is not anticipated.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, no drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across the US Virgin Islands. Drought development is not anticipated through the end of July, but conditions will be monitored, especially if suppressed convection overspreads the Caribbean region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: May 21, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT