Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November and November-December-January (NDJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for NDJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on October 13, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Following a sluggish start to the Monsoon, above-normal precipitation was observed throughout the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region due in part to multiple tropical cyclones in the East Pacific. On October 10, Hurricane Rachel made landfall along the coast of northern Baja California. Its remnant low and deep tropical moisture spread well inland, bringing heavy rainfall and flash flooding to southern California and the Desert Southwest. During the latter half of October, this wet pattern is likely to persist over the southwestern U.S. due to enhanced moisture from the East Pacific interacting with southern stream shortwave troughs. Based on above-normal precipitation since September along with an increased chance of above-normal precipitation during late October and NDJ, drought improvement and removal are forecast for Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Colorado. The NDJ outlook leaning towards the wetter side and an increasingly wet climatology support drought removal in California. Nearly half of the annual precipitation occurs during NDJ across western parts of Oregon and Washington and with equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above-normal precipitation forecast during NDJ, improvement and removal are favored across western parts of Oregon and Washington. To the east of the Cascades, forecast confidence is lower due to a drier climatology. Overall, the outlook calls for broad-scale no changes in drought for the northern Great Basin and northern Intermountain West. Development and worsening drought conditions are most likely in areas that remain drier during mid to late October and the NDJ outlook leans on the drier side. This includes northeastern Oregon, eastern Washington, much of Idaho, and western Montana.



Forecast confidence for the West Region is moderate.



Widespread D2 to D3 is designated for Colorado and Wyoming. However, the active East Pacific tropical cyclone season has led to enhanced precipitation during the past few weeks. This wetter pattern with anomalous low to mid-level moisture interacting with 500-hPa troughs is expected to continue into the latter half of October. Later in the fall and through the 2026-27 winter, an active southern stream storm track is forecast to become established and the NDJ outlook favors above-normal precipitation for southern and eastern Colorado. Given these factors this fall into the upcoming winter, drought improvement or removal is forecast for nearly all of Colorado and extends north into southeastern Wyoming. For the remainder of Wyoming, precipitation amounts are likely to be much lower and thus no changes in drought are expected. Drought coverage and intensity varies throughout the Northern to Central Great Plains. Chances for drought improvement are higher for the Central Great Plains than the Dakotas. Two periods of beneficial precipitation (totaling more than one inch) are forecast for Kansas and Nebraska during mid to late October, while the Dakotas remain mostly dry. In addition, the NDJ outlook depicts elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities (33-40%) across Kansas and Nebraska with equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation forecast for the Dakotas. Forecast confidence is low for widespread improvements given the long-term drought and increasingly drier climatology east of the Continental Divide by the winter.



Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is low.



Below-normal precipitation coupled with above-normal temperatures resulted in the rapid onset and worsening of drought across the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley since August. From August 11 to October 6, much of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas had a 2 to 4-category degradation in drought intensity. During mid to late October, a couple of cold fronts are forecast to bring beneficial precipitation to the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. With near to above-normal precipitation favored during the latter half of October and the likelihood that an overall wet pattern prevails through the winter due to a strong El Niño, drought improvement and removal are forecast.



Forecast confidence for the South Region is high.



During the late summer and into the early fall, a very persistently wet pattern maintained drought-free conditions from Iowa east through most of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. However, to the north and south of this region, drought worsened to D3 in southwestern Missouri and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Based on a predicted wet latter half of October, the NDJ outlook leaning on the wetter side (southwestern Missouri), and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, drought improvement is forecast for Missouri and southern Illinois. Although lower precipitation amounts are expected in the ongoing drought areas of southern Kentucky, an active southern stream storm track during the next few months supports drought removal. Farther north across the ongoing drought areas of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the climatology becomes drier later in the fall through the winter. For NDJ, less than 15% of the annual precipitation typically occurs during this 3-month period. This drier climatology along with many of the tools leaning towards the drier side support broad-scale no change in drought conditions.



Forecast confidence for the Midwest Region is moderate.



Pockets of D2 to D3 continue to affect parts of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Carolinas, and Virginia. As Hurricane Isaias made landfall and its remnant low tracked inland, heavy rainfall (2 to 4 inches, locally more) led to improving drought for much of the southeastern Piedmont and Southern Appalachians. Despite a return of drier weather during mid-October, an active southern stream storm track is likely later this fall into the winter due to the strong El Niño. The NDJ outlook reflects this with above-normal precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% for much of the Southeast and greater than a 70% chance forecast for northern Florida and southern Georgia. Based on the heavy rainfall during early October and the large above-normal precipitation probabilities in the NDJ precipitation outlook, drought removal is forecast throughout the Southeast. This even includes the D2 to D3 areas which are anticipated to at least go to D0 (abnormal dryness).



Forecast confidence for the Southeast Region is high.



D1 to D3 drought continues for Maine along with portions of New Hampshire and northeastern Vermont. The WPC 7-day qpf depicts more than 1 inch of precipitation, and the 8-14 day outlook favors near normal precipitation. Since the late fall and early winter is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge and there is no dry signal on the seasonal time scale, drought improvement or removal is forecast for northern New England. Although long-term drought is designed for southeastern Massachusetts where groundwater remains low, elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities in the NDJ outlook support drought removal by the end of January. Farther to the south across the Mid-Atlantic, a wet end to summer and beginning to fall has brought drought amelioration. The remnant low, associated with Hurricane Isaias, resulted in widespread 2 to 4 inches across eastern West Virginia and western to north-central Maryland. Rainfall amounts were lower (less than 2 inches) for the eastern shore of Maryland and Delaware. Based on the likelihood of above-normal precipitation during NDJ, drought removal is forecast for any lingering drought across the Mid-Atlantic. Although the November outlook favors below-normal precipitation in western New York, the WPC 7-day qpf depicts more than 1 inch of precipitation and with the lack of a dry signal on the seasonal time scale, removal is forecast for the small D1 area.



Forecast confidence for the Northeast Region is high.



Short-term moderate drought (D1) is designated for east-central Mainland Alaska. Although NDJ is a relatively dry time of year and EC of below, near, or above-normal precipitation are forecast in the 3-month outlook, removal is forecast since any drought impacts should ease.



Forecast confidence for Alaska is moderate.



Hawaii is drought-free due to periods of heavy to excessive rainfall the past few months. Given the antecedent wetness, drought is not anticipated to develop by the end of January. Later in the winter and into spring 2027, Hawaii will need to be closely monitored for drought development as El Niño typically leads to a drier-than-normal winter.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate.



From mid-September through early October, heavy precipitation resulted in drought improvement across much of Puerto Rico with eastern areas becoming drought-free. The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate below normal precipitation during the next two and four weeks, respectively. For NDJ, the NMME depicts Puerto Rico in between dryness across the southern Caribbean and wetness to the north across Cuba and the Bahamas. Given the forecast for a return of drier-than-normal conditions during the next several weeks, high uncertainty on the precipitation outlook on the seasonal time scale, and declining precipitation by January, no change in drought status is forecast for Puerto Rico.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is moderate.



Unlike nearby Puerto Rico, rainfall has been much lower across the USVI with D4 designated for St Thomas and D3 for St John and St Croix. Since above-normal precipitation is unlikely at any time scale through January, no change in drought intensity is forecast throughout the USVI.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is moderate.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 19, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST