Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February and February-March-April (FMA), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for FMA, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on January 13, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Major drought improvement or the end of drought occurred across a majority of the West since mid-October. Much of this drought amelioration is related to the multiple atmospheric rivers that affected the region during December. California entered the 2025-2026 wet season with more than a third of the state designated with drought (D1+) and nearly three-quarters in at least abnormal dryness (D0). By mid-December, the state was drought-free and on the January 6th USDM, there was no D0 either. More recently during early to mid-January, a building 500-hPa ridge resulted in much drier weather along the West Coast. Precipitation has generally averaged at or above normal for the Western Region during the water year so far (October 1, 2025 - January 12, 2026). However, warmer-than-normal temperatures have led to less snowfall and snow water equivalent is running below average for many of the river basins. This snow drought, particularly across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, and Great Basin, will be a concern heading later into the spring unless the snowpack increases. Consistent with the FMA precipitation outlook, continued drought improvement and removal are favored for much of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West. Farther to the south across the Great Basin and Southwest, drought persistence is forecast with the FMA precipitation outlook leaning on the drier side. Although the FMA outlook depicts elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities for much of California, antecedent wetness precludes drought development at this time.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West.



During the late fall and winter, drought expanded and intensified across Colorado and the Central Great Plains due to below-average precipitation and above-normal temperatures. From mid-December 2025 through early January 2026, temperatures averaged 8 to 14 degrees F above normal. Based on the FMA outlook depicting an increased chance of below-normal precipitation, continued drought development is likely across much of Colorado. Since FMA is a relatively drier time of year especially through the late winter, persistence is forecast for ongoing drought across Kansas, Nebraska, and southeastern South Dakota. Enhanced Pacific flow earlier this winter resulted in above-average precipitation and major drought improvement to western Wyoming. Additional improvements are expected for parts of southwestern Wyoming where SWE is currently at or above-average and the FMA outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. If near or above-normal precipitation occurs during the next three months, then improvements can be expected.



Forecast confidence is high for the High Plains.



Drought expanded and intensified throughout the Southern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley since mid-October. This worsening drought during the late fall and winter is consistent with La Niña with persistent dryness and warmth. December 2025 was particularly dry and warm for Oklahoma with nearly all of the state receiving less than 0.25 inch of precipitation and monthly temperatures averaging 3 to 6 degrees F above normal. Most of Texas along with the western third of Oklahoma is favored to have a continuation of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during FMA. Development is likely for west-central parts of Texas as well. Forecast confidence is high for the Southern Great Plains, but confidence in the SDO decreases across northeastern Texas, and eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas where the climatology is wetter during the late winter and early spring and the FMA outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Given the antecedent dryness, persistence is forecast for eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, and western to southern Arkansas. However, prospects for improvement increase for eastern Arkansas as late January into early February could become quite wet with an active storm track. This drought improvement and removal extends east through Tennessee with late January and the FMA outlook likely to be on the wet side. Consistent with the FMA outlook depicting elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities, persistence is forecast for southern Mississippi and much of Louisiana.



Forecast confidence is high for the Southern Great Plains and moderate for the Lower Mississippi Valley of the South Region.



Beginning in late January and continuing through FMA, the precipitation outlooks are leaning towards above-normal precipitation for the Midwest which is consistent with La Niña forcing. Therefore, improvement and removal are favored across much of the Midwest. The one exception is across extreme northwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Minnesota where a drier climatology results in persistence.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest.



Moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought is designated for much of the Southeast Region, which is consistent with a La Niña winter. Although beneficial rainfall brought minor drought relief to parts of Alabama and northern Georgia during early January, 30-day precipitation has averaged less than 25 percent of normal across the Coastal Plain of Georgia and the Carolinas along with the Florida Peninsula. Based on the FMA outlook favoring below-normal precipitation and a drier climatology, forecast confidence is high for persistence across the Florida Peninsula. The FMA outlook with an increased chance of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures favors persistence for much of Alabama, Georgia, and eastern North Carolina. Persistence is also the most likely outcome for the Southern Appalachians and Virginia, but forecast confidence is low with the FMA outlook calling for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. During the next few months, drought coverage and intensity may vary periodically depending on the mid-latitude storm track.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast.



During the late fall and early winter, beneficial precipitation and colder temperatures resulted in a decrease in drought coverage across the Northeast Region. Additional drought removal or improvement is forecast for western parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland where 90-day precipitation has averaged close to normal and the FMA outlook leans towards above-normal precipitation. Drought improvement is forecast for parts of eastern West Virginia but forecast confidence is low as 28-day average streamflows remain quite low and any recovery from the hydrological drought may be slow to happen. As of January 13, the USDM depicts severe drought (D2) for parts of central and southern Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and New England. Broad-scale persistence is forecast for these areas as the FMA outlooks calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation and any meaningful improvement of the longer-term drought metrics, such as ground water, are expected to be a slow process.



Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast.



Although there are a couple of areas of abnormal dryness (D0) designated for parts of south-central Alaska and the Seward Peninsula, drought development is not expected through the end of April. Since SWE is running below average in and around the Kenai Peninsula and the FMA outlook leans on the drier side, south-central and southeastern Mainland Alaska will need to be closely monitored for drought heading later into the spring and summer.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.



Heavy precipitation brought an end to drought across Kauai during early December 2025 and most of Oahu by the New Year. Mid to late January is likely to be very wet throughout Hawaii as multiple Kona lows could form in the coming weeks. This wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the winter and early spring with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble depicting a 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation during FMA. Therefore, forecast confidence is high for drought improvement and removal by the end of April.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Streamflows are running low across north-central and east-central Puerto Rico. Although portions of Puerto Rico are designated with abnormal dryness (D0) in the USDM, valid January 9, forecast confidence is too low to designate any specific development areas at this time.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



Since FMA is a relatively dry time of year for the U.S. Virgin Islands, drought persistence is likely for St John and St Thomas. Given the drying trend for St Croix, development is forecast for that island.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 19, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST