Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for June and June-July-August (JJA, summer), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JJA, and initial conditions such as soil moisture and streamflow. The chances for a weak or moderate El Niño to develop during this period are between 80 and 90 percent, but El Niño tends to have more influence on U.S. weather and climate during autumn and winter. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on May 19, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Precipitation climatology varies widely across the Western Region during summer. Across central and southwestern California, less than 2 percent of annual precipitation typically falls during summer while 2 to 10 percent is more common across northern California and western sections of Oregon and Washington. This proportion increases eastward, and across southern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and the eastern reaches of Montana over 40 percent of precipitation each year falls during the summer. Due to the dry climatology, drought is expected to persist across the western tier of states, with drought expected to expand into significant portions of California where the lack of winter snowfall may begin to impact conditions. Across the Pacific Northwest, the official Summer outlook favors below-normal precipitation in addition to the dry climatology, so drought persistence and expansion is also favored there. From eastern Idaho eastward, drought persistence is also favored, with development in areas currently drought free, despite the wetter climatology. Neither unusually wet nor dry conditions are favored in the official summer outlook, but above normal temperatures are favored, and increasing impacts due to the lack of winter snowpack are possible. In contrast, drought improvement or removal is anticipated over much of Arizona and New Mexico, in addition to parts of Utah. In these areas, the enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation coincide with areas having a wetter summer climatology, primarily due to the Southwest Monsoon later in the summer. A little farther north and west, surplus summer precipitation is also favored farther west in Utah and northward into a large part of Wyoming, but summer climatology is somewhat drier in these areas, and it is less likely that above-normal precipitation would necessarily reduce precipitation deficits or substantially boost surface moisture. It doesn't appear that any precipitation early in the period (through May) will have any impact on the Drought Monitor depiction.



Confidence across the Western Region is high in the Far West, low in eastern Montana and adjacent locations, and moderate elsewhere.



Summer is a fairly wet time of year across the High Plains region outside the higher elevations in Wyoming and Colorado. Over 40 percent of annual precipitation is observed on average from eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward to the Canadian border, with much of North Dakota typically recording over 45 percent of annual precipitation during the summer. Summer precipitation is climatologically less pronounced across much of Kansas and eastern Nebraska, where 35 to 40 percent of annual totals is more typical. Over much of Wyoming and western Colorado, summer precipitation is about average compared to other seasons. During the past couple of decades, in fact, summer in central and western Wyoming has been a bit drier than other times of year. The official outlook for summer 2026 favors above-normal precipitation across a good bit of Colorado and Wyoming, prompting a forecast of improvement or removal across a large part of Colorado, and persistence farther north over Wyoming. The wetter climatology compared to other times of the year in Colorado was the deciding factor there. Farther east, from extreme northeastern Kansas northward across eastern sections of Nebraska and the Dakotas, the official outlook favors subnormal summer precipitation, so drought is expected to persist and expand northward through the eastern Dakotas. Across western sections of Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, drought persistence with expansion into northern parts of the region is also the forecast despite the official outlook favoring neither dryness nor wetness during the summer. Above-normal temperatures are favored on all time scales from the next several days to the next few months, which should allow for more evaporative moisture losses than usual despite marginally increased odds for above-normal rainfall later in May. In addition, much of the western Dakotas are abnormally dry as of mid-May, further tilting the odds toward at least moderate drought development.



Forecast confidence across the High Plains Region is mostly moderate, but low in the western Dakotas where the precipitation outlook is uncertain during a typically wet time of the year.



Across the areas of drought affecting the Southern Region, drought persistence is expected across most of central Oklahoma and northwestern Texas, and also across southeastern Mississippi, eastern Tennessee, and part of the Louisiana Bayou (basically the northwestern and southeastern tiers of the Region). Short-term rainfall is expected to approach or exceed 2 inches in central Oklahoma and portions of eastern Mississippi and Tennessee, but the potential for above-normal summer temperatures and enhanced evaporative losses are expected to offset any short-term improvement in these areas, leaving no net change in the Drought Monitor by the end of August. In contrast, drought improvement or removal is expected across the rest of Texas, most of Louisiana, Arkansas, western Mississippi, and the western half of Tennessee. Short-term rainfall is expected to be heaviest in this swath, with amounts of 4 to locally over 7 inches possible by late May from the southeastern half of Texas through portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, with slightly lower amounts expected farther north. In addition, above-normal precipitation is favored somewhat in the week-2 outlook. Climatology is not much of a factor in this part of the Nation, and the summer precipitation outlook is generally neutral. Below-normal summer precipitation is nominally favored in the official outlook along the immediate western Gulf Coast, but the heavy amounts expected before June should provide enough impetus for drought in the region to improve at least somewhat through the end of August.



Forecast confidence in the Southern Region is moderate, except low along the western Gulf Coast where the short-term and long-term precipitation outlooks are conflicting.



Compared to most other parts of the country, drought is relatively absent from the Midwest Region. The Drought Monitor shows moderate drought limited to southernmost Missouri and some adjacent locales, most of Kentucky, and farther north in a few patches across northwestern Iowa and Minnesota. Climatologically, summer is one of the wetter seasons through approximately the northwestern half of the Region, with over 40 percent of annual precipitation typically observed across most of Minnesota, and 30 to 40 percent of yearly amounts more common across Iowa, northern Missouri, and the western Great Lakes. In and around southern Missouri and across most of Kentucky, drought improvement or removal is forecast primarily due to heavy rainfall (over 3 inches) expected during the rest of May. Slightly lesser amounts in eastern Kentucky are not expected to be sufficient to bring improvement on the Drought Monitor, and drought persistence is the forecast there. In contrast, the official outlook favors subnormal precipitation over parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin, and drought is expected to persist where it exists, and expand northeastward to cover a large part of Minnesota and adjacent Iowa by the end of August. The past few weeks to months have been wetter than normal across most of the Great Lakes, so it is unlikely that even somewhat below normal summer precipitation would push the region into drought.



Forecast confidence in the Midwest Region is moderate.



Drought covers the entirety of the Southeast Region, with a substantial area of exceptional drought (D4, the most intense category) across northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and some adjacent areas. Through the rest of May, generally 1 to 3 inches of precipitation are anticipated across much of North Carolina and near the Appalachians, with amounts approaching an inch anticipated elsewhere. Climatologically, summer is unremarkable in most areas except along the South Atlantic Coast and Peninsular Florida. Those areas typically see over 30 percent of annual precipitation during summer, with parts of Peninsular Florida often topping 40 percent. Due to the historic reliability of this rainfall increase late in the summer, drought improvement or removal is anticipated there. Farther north and west, short-term rainfall is not expected to be sufficient to improve conditions markedly, and with summer climatology being unremarkable, drought is forecast to persist. The only exception is in a small patch of northwestern Alabama, where short-term totals may exceed 3 inches, giving this area a better chance for lasting relief in the short-term.



Forecast confidence in the Southeast Region is generally moderate, but lower in areas where moderate short-term rainfall is expected, followed by uncertain conditions during the summer.



Drought has been common the past several months across the Northeast Region, but recent improvements have restricted current coverage to the southern and eastern tiers. Climatology is not much of a factor here, although some northern areas are slightly wetter during summer than most other times. For the drought covering the eastern tier of the Region, drought improvement or removal is anticipated from central Delaware northward through Maine due to enhanced chances for above normal summer precipitation in the official outlook. Farther south, from West Virginia through Maryland and southern Delaware, the official outlook favors neither wetter nor drier than normal conditions, introducing uncertainty. These areas may get some beneficial rains during the last half of May, with 1.5 to locally 3 inches possible over the next week or two across the Mid-Atlantic. But despite these beneficial short-term amounts, the protracted nature of the drought in this region makes it less likely that these amounts will substantially improve long-term conditions, and with no tilt of the odds toward either extreme in the summer outlook, persistence is a bit more likely to be observed than improvement.



Forecast confidence is low across the southern tier of the Northeast Region, and moderate elsewhere.



A couple patches of abnormal dryness cover parts of south-central Alaska, but no dryness is observed elsewhere, and no drought exists in any part of the state. Official extended range forecasts show enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation during the remainder of May in the abnormally dry areas, and the summer outlook doesn't favor unusually high nor low precipitation totals. Therefore, no drought development is anticipated.



Forecast confidence in Alaska is moderate.



Across Hawaii, abnormal dryness is depicted on the Drought Monitor in central Maui and portions of the Big Island, but no drought is present at this time. The summer outlook favors above normal precipitation throughout the state, so drought development is unlikely.



Forecast confidence in Hawaii is high.



Abnormally dry conditions cover part of southeastern Puerto Rico, but no drought is depicted over any part of the Commonwealth at this time. There are no obvious indicators particularly favoring significantly below-normal precipitation during summer anywhere in the Region, so no drought development is forecast, although the uncertainty reduces confidence somewhat.



Forecast confidence in Puerto Rico is moderate.



No abnormal dryness or drought is depicted in the U.S. Virgin Islands at this time. There are no obvious indicators particularly favoring significantly below-normal precipitation during summer anywhere in the Region, so no drought development is forecast, although the uncertainty reduces confidence somewhat.



Forecast confidence in Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands is moderate.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 18, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT