Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for August and August-September-October (ASO), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for ASO, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on July 14, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions. El Niño conditions are present and favored to impact climate conditions during the ASO period.



As of the July 7th US Drought Monitor, drought conditions extend across just under half of the Western Region, a coverage that has held steady for the last two months as reductions across Montana were offset by degradations across Washington and Oregon. Temperatures across the region during the last month have ranged generally above average, with periods of excessive heat due to the development of heat dome ridges across central North America. Therefore, despite a seasonably dry climatology across the Pacific coast states, additional degradation is possible as evapotranspiration and irrigation demands pull water rapidly from resources that won't be substantially replenished until the upcoming wet season. Therefore, drought persistence and further expansion is favored for Washington and Oregon. Across California, despite the meager snow cover in place at the end of the winter months, reservoir levels continue to range near to above normal for the time of year. Some reservoir levels are dropping faster than climatology, with Shasta Lake in particular going from well above normal two months ago to near normal recently. Overall, however, water supply conditions remain adequate, and substantial drought development is not anticipated through the end of October.



Across the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and northern Rockies, widespread drought reduction is favored due to strongly enhanced monsoonal convection. Forecasts for the next week show widespread precipitation accumulations of 1-3 inches across a wide swath of the interior West, with localized flash flooding possible, particularly in Arizona. A wet monsoon signal remains favored in precipitation outlooks at all other time scales, including days 8-14, the August monthly, and the ASO seasonal.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Western Region.



Drought coverage decreased slightly over the last month across the High Plains region, with improvements noted across Kansas, Nebraska, and southern South Dakota offsetting some degradation in Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota. Drought conditions are still fairly widespread, however, with over 60 percent of the region experiencing drought as of July 7. The summer months are a wet time of year for the Plains, with drier conditions overspreading the region as autumn begins. Much of this precipitation occurs through periods of organized convection, which are difficult to forecast at longer time scales. Over the next 7 days, widespread precipitation from an enhanced monsoonal flow is favored across Colorado and Wyoming, which should bring some relief to ongoing drought conditions, while mostly dry conditions are favored for the Great Plains states. Enhanced precipitation from an ongoing robust monsoon is favored to continue at all time scales, with equal chances maintained across the eastern half of the region. Based on these outlooks, drought reductions are favored for all of Colorado and Wyoming, and western areas of Nebraska and South Dakota. Absent a clear wet signal in the guidance, persistence is maintained for the eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, and central Kansas, though convective events can bring localized improvements, and a lack of convection can spark localized degradation.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the High Plains Region.



Periods of heavy rainfall during the past month have resulted in fairly large drought reductions across the Southern Region, with only around 34 percent of the region now experiencing drought as of July 7. Significant rainfall is ongoing and forecast to continue over the next several days across southern Texas, which should bring immediate drought reductions but also a risk for widespread flooding. Elsewhere, mostly light rainfall is forecast for the next week across the region, which will allow seasonably high evapotranspirative demand to reduce soil moisture. Near to below-normal rainfall is forecast during days 8-14, and the August outlook maintains equal chances. There is a slight dry signal in the ASO seasonal outlook across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Based on these outlooks, drought persistence is maintained for most of the Southern region outside of southern Texas. While there is a potential for areas of drought development should below-normal precipitation occur over an extended period of time, the fairly weak signals in the guidance and generally favorable antecedent soil moisture conditions preclude any areas of development on the ASO drought outlook.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southern Region.



Despite a brief flash drought in the upper Mississippi Valley region during the early summer, drought conditions only cover a small percentage of the Midwest region: under 9 percent as of July 7. The largest drought areas extend across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where dryness and periodic hot temperatures have driven wildfire development. Over the next week, mostly dry conditions are favored across the region, with moderate accumulations (around an inch) possible across Michigan's upper peninsula. Near normal precipitation is favored during days 8-14, and both the monthly and seasonal outlooks depict areas favoring below-normal precipitation; across the Great Lakes region in August, and the upper Mississippi Valley region through ASO. Due to ongoing dryness, including reduced soil moisture and low streamflows across parts of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the upper peninsula of Michigan, some drought expansion is favored in these areas. Elsewhere, drought persistence is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



While drought conditions still blanket nearly 63 percent of the Southeast region as of July 7, there have been significant reductions in both drought coverage and intensity over the last two months. Notably, nearly the entire region was in drought during May, and coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4 on the US Drought Monitor) was more than halved during this period. Generous climatological precipitation through daily convection affords opportunities for additional drought reductions, but a dry signal, due in part to El Niño suppression as well as potentially reduced Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity, may result in drier than average conditions early in the seasonal period. Near to above-average rainfall is forecast during the days 8-14 period, which should continue the trend of drought reduction. There is a fairly pronounced dry signal in the August monthly outlook across the southern Atlantic states. In this area, persistence is maintained in the drought outlook across much of the Carolinas, corresponding also to areas that are abnormally dry in the shorter term guidance. The ASO seasonal outlook maintains equal chances across the region. As summer progresses into the autumn moisture recharge season, the ENSO background state increasingly favors a wetter than average pattern across the southern tier. Therefore, outside of the Carolinas, a continuation of drought reduction is favored. Across Florida, seabreeze driven convection is usually more than ample enough to completely remove drought conditions that tend to develop in the spring months. However, the wet season has been fairly lackluster so far, and short term guidance maintains fairly uneven and widely scattered convection. Given this, and the potential for reduced tropical moisture, drought is favored to improve across the peninsula, but may not be fully eliminated by the waning of the wet season in October.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



Drought conditions have slowly eased across much of the Northeast region, with coverage recently dropping below a quarter of the region. Despite these improvements, the region remains highly vulnerable to drought intensification. This is due in part to the unusual longevity of drought conditions in the East over the past year, which has resulted in impacts to slower responding systems such as groundwater levels. Climatological precipitation is generous and evenly spaced in the region, with frequent summertime convection giving way to midlatitude systems by the autumn months. This climatology alone usually provides opportunity for drought relief, though high evapotranspirative demands, especially during August, can result in short term drought expansion during any periods of dryness. The WPC outlook for days 1-7 shows widespread rainfall overspreading the region, and the days 8-14 outlook continues to favor above-average rainfall. These short term forecasts favor additional drought reduction before August even begins. During August, a slight tilt towards below-normal precipitation is favored for drought-free areas bordering the Great Lakes, with equal chances maintained elsewhere. The ASO outlook maintains equal chances across the entire region. Absent a clear dry signal in the seasonal guidance and a wet signal over the next two weeks, continued drought reduction is favored.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast Region.



A small area of moderate drought in western Alaska was removed in this week's US Drought Monitor following periods of wetter conditions. Precipitation outlooks at all time scales indicate a potential for wetter than average conditions across Alaska ahead of the colder season. Therefore, no drought development is favored.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



No drought conditions are currently present in Hawaii, though abnormal dryness continues across the Big Island and parts of Maui. While El Niño conditions are tied to drier than average wet seasons for Hawaii due in part to suppressed "Kona" low activity, warm ENSO events are actually tied to wetter than average conditions during the summer and autumn seasons. This pattern is consistent with the monthly and seasonal guidance, and therefore, drought development is not forecast across Hawaii during ASO.



Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.



Drought conditions have expanded steadily over Puerto Rico during the past month, as developing El Niño conditions and Pacific MJO events combined to generate strong suppression over the Caribbean region. Due to the anticipated strength of the developing El Niño, there is high confidence that a suppressed signal will remain persistent across the region. This, in addition to a potential for reduced tropical cyclone activity, reduces the potential for any drought relief. Therefore, persistence and expansion of drought conditions are likely.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, drought conditions have developed across the US Virgin Islands. A suppressed convective regime favored for the Caribbean during El Niño conditions provides little opportunity for substantive drought relief; therefore, drought persistence is forecast.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: August 20, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT