Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for September and September-October-November (SON), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for SON, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on August 18, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



During the past month, drought conditions changed little across much of the Western Region. Looking ahead into September-October-November (SON) season, the CPC outlooks favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest. Persistence is anticipated for the existing drought across the areas with potential drought expansion over parts of the regions. Persistence is likely across much of Montana due to lack of wet signals in the CPC precipitation outlooks. Conversely, enhanced monsoon moisture driven by warmer Pacific ocean temperatures favors widespread drought reduction across the Southwest, Great Basin, Northern Intermountain regions and much of the Central and Southern Rockies. Drought removal/improvement is also likely across parts of western Oregon and northern California with forecast equal-chances of below, near or above normal precipitation in the CPC outlooks coupled with a wet climatology late in the season and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Western Region.



There were large fluctuations in drought coverage during the past two months across the High Plains region, with improvements noted across the Dakotas followed by a quick worsening. 1 to 3 class degradation was observed across much of western portions of the regions. Widespread, long-term drought across large parts of Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas remained largely unchanged. Drought conditions are fairly widespread, with about 75 percent of the region experiencing moderate to exceptional (D1 to D4) drought as of August 11. Looking ahead of the SON season, the High Plains region is entering its climatologically dry season. Both the CPC monthly and seasonal forecasts lean toward above-normal precipitation across the southern portion of the region, whereas northern areas show an absence of significant wet signals. Therefore, drought persistence is expected to continue across the Dakotas, northeastern Wyoming, and portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Conversely, widespread drought relief is forecasted across the remainder of the region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.



Periods of heavy rainfall over the past several months led to significant drought contraction across the Southern Region, dropping coverage from an early-April peak of roughly 87 percent to just around 27 percent by August 4. Looking ahead into the SON season, all ranges of the CPC outlooks favor above normal temperatures across the South but show an absence of wet signals across much of the region, except the western portions of the region where above normal precipitation is predicted in the season. Consequently, drought removal or improvement is likely across western parts of the region, while existing drought is expected to persist elsewhere-with potential new development across the Ark-La-Tex region.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southern Region.



During the early summer, drought conditions only covered a small percentage of the Midwest region: under 9 percent as of July 7. However, the region experienced drought expansion (with 1 to 3 class degradation) across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where dryness and periodic hot temperatures have driven wildfire development. As of August 4, around 20 percent of the region was under moderate to severe drought conditions. Looking ahead into the next season, the CPC outlooks favor dry conditions across the region. Due to ongoing dryness, including reduced soil moisture and low streamflows across parts of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the upper peninsula of Michigan, some drought expansion is favored in parts of these areas. Elsewhere, drought persistence is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



Periodic beneficial rainfall brought continuous drought relief across the Southeast over the past month, driving a 1- to 3-class improvement across much of North Carolina, Virginia and northwestern Florida. Notably, while nearly the entire region experienced drought during May, coverage of severe-to-exceptional drought (D2-D4 on the U.S. Drought Monitor) was reduced from about 94 percent to less than 22 percent during this period. Although climatological precipitation via daily convective activity brings further reduction, a potential dry signal-driven partly by El Niñ\;o suppression and potentially subdued Atlantic tropical cyclone activity-may lead to drier-than-average conditions early in the season. The WPC forecasts 1 to 5 inches of precipitation across much of Florida and coastal Atlantic regions during the next 1-7 days. The CPC extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks all favor near to above normal precipitation across the region. Continued drought reduction is anticipated in the season.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



Over the past month, steady drought relief (a 1- to 2-class improvement) was observed across most of the Northeast. The primary exception was Maine, where drought was briefly eliminated before redeveloping with a 1- to 2-class degradation.



The SON season is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge across the region. The WPC outlook for days 1-7 shows 1 to 3 inches of widespread rainfall overspreading southern parts of the region, and the CPC 8-14 days outlook continues to favor above-average rainfall across the region. The CPC monthly favors equal-chances of below, near or above normal precipitation for the region and the seasonal outlook tilts slightly toward below normal precipitation over the northern and western portions of the region and the equal-chances of below, near or above normal precipitation for southern portions of the region. Continued drought reduction is favored across southern portions of the Northeast region and drought persistence is likely for northern portions of the region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



Two small areas of moderate drought in east-central mainland Alaska and southeast Alaska developed recently. Precipitation outlooks indicate a potential for wetter than average conditions across mainland Alaska ahead into the colder season. Therefore, removal of moderate drought over mainland Alaska is anticipated. Over the southeast Alaska region, precipitation outlooks favor a lack of wet signals during the period. Persistence is the most likely outcome for the small drought over the area.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Alaska.



No drought conditions are currently present in Hawaii, though abnormal dryness continues across parts of the Hawaiian Islands. The CPC monthly and seasonal both favor wetter than average conditions for theIslands. Drought development is not forecast across Hawaii during SON.



Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.



Drought conditions have expanded steadily across Puerto Rico over the past month, as developing El Niñ\;o conditions generate strong convective suppression over the Caribbean. Given the expected strength and persistence of El Niñ\;o, combined with reduced potential for tropical cyclone activity, meaningful drought relief is unlikely. Consequently, continued drought persistence and expansion remain the most probable outcome.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Like Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands are seeing expanding droughts. El Niñ\;o-driven convective suppression offers little chance for relief, making drought persistence or worsening the primary outlook.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: September 17, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT