Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January and January-February-March (JFM), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JFM, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on December 16, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



As of the USDM valid on 9 December, drought coverage (D1 through D4) covered just over 48 percent of the Western Region, which is a reduction from 58 percent at the beginning of November. More substantial reductions occurred in areas of severe to extreme drought (D2 and D3), and no areas of exceptional drought (D4) remain in the climate region. Much of this reduction occurred across southern California following an early season moisture surge, and more recently across the Northwest due to a persistent stream of atmospheric river events. Temperatures during this period ranged above-average for the most part, resulting in higher than normal snow elevations across the Cascades, Sierra Nevadas, and northern Rockies. Therefore, snow water equivalent (SWE) values are exceptionally low across these ranges, despite widespread impacts at lower elevations, including record river flooding, particularly across coastal areas. Oregon has largely missed out on recent precipitation events, and abnormal dryness expanded slowly across the state over the past few weeks. Looking ahead, a very wet pattern is favored to continue through the end of December, with repeated storms fueled by Pacific moisture bringing widespread heavy precipitation. Temperatures are favored to be near to above-average during this period, so while snowpack conditions will increase due to the precipitation, SWE may continue to be a concern into the heart of the wet season. The focus of precipitation during the next few weeks will also be more widespread, including much of California and Oregon. Beyond Week-2, the seasonal outlook for January - March 2025 favors above-average precipitation across the Northwest and northern Rockies, and below-average precipitation for southern California eastward through the southern Rockies. Therefore, continued drought reductions are favored for the Northwest and northern Rockies, while areas of drought development are indicated for portions of the desert Southwest in California and western Arizona, away from the coast. Recent moisture may be sufficient to preclude drought development across central Arizona. Further east, drought development is favored across the southern Rockies. East of the Rockies across Montana, drought persistence is maintained despite the wet signal, as climatological precipitation is low this time of year, and soils and streams are mostly frozen over, limiting the potential for recharge ahead of the Spring thaw.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Western Region.



As of 9 December, drought conditions extended across just over 20 percent of the High Plains Region, with a much smaller coverage (7 percent) of severe to extreme drought. While drought coverage has been mostly stable across the region for the past month, significant expansion occurred across northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming, where early season snow cover remains well below normal. While a series of winter storms brought heavy snows to the eastern Dakotas, most of the Plains remains free of snow cover. During the winter months, climatological precipitation is low across the Plains, and any precipitation that does fall usually results in snow cover on top of frozen soils and streams, especially across the Northern Plains. Therefore, despite a wet signal in the seasonal outlook for Wyoming, western South Dakota and much of North Dakota, drought persistence is favored for the majority of the High Plains Region. No drought development is indicated, as evapotranspirative and agricultural demands are very low this time of year. The one exception to persistence is the higher elevations of western Wyoming, where a stronger wet signal favors a potential for some drought reduction through mountain snowpack building and runoff.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.



Drought conditions cover nearly 35 percent of the Southern Region, with considerable changes to the drought depiction occurring over the last month. Drought conditions eased across parts of North Texas and northeastern Texas, while degrading across central and southern Texas, northern Louisiana, and much of Oklahoma. ACIS-based percent of normal precipitation analyses depict the areas that received beneficial precipitation, with a swath extending across central and northeastern Texas, while surrounding areas and Arkansas received below-normal precipitation. Over the next 7 days, locally heavy rainfall is forecast for far southern Texas, with light precipitation falling elsewhere from eastern Texas and Oklahoma through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Near to below-normal precipitation is favored during Week-2, and both the monthly and seasonal outlooks show enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation across much of the south-central CONUS and central Gulf Coast. To the north, the displaced favored storm track may bring enhanced precipitation to portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee to the west of the spine of the Appalachians. Therefore, drought persistence and fairly widespread development is indicated for areas where the seasonal outlook favors below, and drought reductions are forecast for much of Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Since this outlook is based on anticipated storm activity, confidence is low, especially for the areas of improvement, while confidence increases for development across western portions of the region.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southern Region.



Drought conditions currently cover almost 35 percent of the Midwest Region, and this coverage has remained fairly stable through the past month, though there have been both improvements and degradations across the region based on where precipitation has fallen. During the first half of December, a cold, active pattern brought widespread early season snow cover to the upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes states, and the northern Ohio Valley. This precipitation has brought some recharge to areas where soils and streams have not yet frozen over. Expansion of abnormal dryness occurred across Kentucky, where less precipitation fell. During the next 7 days, light to moderate precipitation is favored to overspread the entire region, with the highest accumulations falling across Kentucky and the eastern Corn Belt - areas that missed out on precipitation earlier in the month. This precipitation should help preclude further degradations in the short term. Near normal conditions are favored for Week-2, and both the monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks depict enhanced precipitation probabilities across much of the region, centered over the Ohio Valley. This is a typical response pattern to La Niña conditions in the later winter months, as the favored winter storm track is displaced across the Ohio Valley. Based on the generous snowpack already in place and the wet monthly and seasonal outlooks, gradual drought reductions are favored for most of the Midwest Region. Persistence is maintained for western Missouri, where climatology is a bit lower and equal chances are maintained in the seasonal guidance. Persistence is also favored across northwestern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota, where soils and streams have already frozen over.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



Persistently dry conditions led to a large expansion of drought across the Southeast Region, with drought conditions unusually extreme across southern Georgia and northern Florida. As of 9 December, drought conditions extended across nearly 60 percent of the Southeast Region, a slight decrease from the peak reached the previous week. A strong frontal system brought widespread rainfall to the Gulf Coast, removing the area of exceptional (D4) drought that had been introduced to southern Georgia and northern Florida, but extreme drought (D3) conditions remain. While localized areas received sufficient rainfall to reach above-average accumulations over the past 30 days, most areas are still reporting subnormal precipitation on a monthly time scale. Therefore, despite the recent heavy rains and short term drought reductions, the Southeast region remains highly vulnerable to drought intensification and expansion. Light to moderate precipitation is forecast to overspread the region over the next 7 days, but is unlikely to substantially alter the current drought depiction. Dry, warm conditions are favored to return to the region during Week-2, and both the monthly and seasonal outlooks favor below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, which is typical for a La Niña winter where southeast ridging is a common climate-scale feature. Based on these initial conditions and outlooks, widespread drought development is forecast, especially across the coastal plain and piedmont regions of the South Atlantic states, and the immediate Gulf Coast. The highest confidence for development exists across the Florida Peninsula, where the dry signal is the strongest.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast Region.



A pattern change towards cold and stormy conditions during the first half of December brought some drought relief to the Northeast, where unusually persistent drought conditions have lasted or even expanded through the autumn recharge months.The most pronounced relief occurred across the central Appalachians and favored snow regions downwind of the Great Lakes and along the upslope regions of New England. Despite these improvements, drought coverage remained at just over 42 percent of the Northeast Region's land areas. Closer to the coast, dryness in late autumn exacerbated groundwater conditions across portions of the mid-Atlantic region and northern New England, continuing a trend of unusually widespread impacts to groundwater conditions throughout the protracted periods of drought in the Northeast. Climatological precipitation is generous and evenly spread throughout the year, making the winter months typically advantageous for drought relief. Absent a clear wet signal, however, climatological precipitation is unlikely to be sufficient to substantially recharge the low groundwater and reservoir levels observed throughout Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and Maryland. During the next 7 days, widespread locally heavy precipitation is forecast, largely associated with an advancing cold front, with much of it falling as rain in the warm sector. This system will promote rapid snowmelt and may briefly cause localized flooding concerns. A slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation is also favored during Week-2. Beyond that, equal chances are maintained at the monthly and seasonal time scales, except across areas close to the Great Lakes. Streams and soils have also frozen in Maine and other portions of New England, limiting the potential for new precipitation to recharge soils and streams until the Spring thaw. Based on the protracted impacts and a lack of a strong wet signal for the Northeast, persistence is maintained for northern New England, Cape Cod, and the mid-Atlantic east of the Alleghany Front, though small areas of relief are possible. Further west, drought reductions are indicated for the snow-favored areas of upstate New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



An area of abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced recently to southern Alaska, due primarily to a lack of snow cover. Further impacts are unlikely to occur during the January - March period, which is cold and brings little sunlight to the state. Therefore, further degradation of the abnormal dryness into drought conditions is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Widespread drought and abnormal dryness continue to bring impacts to Hawaii, with the entire state experiencing at least abnormal dryness, and almost 87 percent of the state in drought conditions as of the USDM valid on 9 November. Recent precipitation has begun to ease drought across the northwestern islands. The seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation for Hawaii during its core wet season, which is consistent with a La Niña reponse. Therefore, further easement of drought is likely, with the highest probabilities across the northwestern islands. Across the Big Island, where the probability of above-normal precipitation is lower and drought conditions have been rather intractable, drought persistence is maintained.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Abnormal dryness (D0) has expanded across central Puerto Rico over the past month, and now covers nearly 38 percent of the island's land area. Impacts within these dry areas have gradually increased, and some areas are on the brink of drought development should any dry period occur over the next few weeks. Forecast guidance on multiple time scales indicates an overall wetter than normal pattern for the northern Caribbean, which should help prevent widespread drought development. Therefore, no drought development is indicated on the outlook, but confidence is fairly low due to the potential development of small pockets of short term drought.



Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.



The situation across the US Virgin Islands is similar to that observed across Puerto Rico. with St Thomas and St John islands on the brink of drought development, while conditions are somewhat better across St Croix. Due to the anticipated wet pattern over the next few weeks, and near to above-normal precipitation favored on the seasonal timescale in the NMME, drought development is not anticipated, though brief, short term development cannot be ruled out.



Forecast confidence is low for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: January 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST