Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for October and October-November-December (OND), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) and 7-day average maximum temperature forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for OND, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on September 15, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



The West Region forecast is based primarily on the official October and October-December (OND) precipitation forecasts, precipitation and temperature signals typically correlated with El Niño (ENSO) events, a few analogs for very strong ENSO events, precipitation forecasts for the remainder of September, and climatology. OND is typically one of the wetter times of the year in the Pacific Northwest, with western Washington typically receiving over 40 percent of their annual precipitation during this period. The climatological OND percentage of annual precipitation declines to the east and southeast, such that OND is a relatively dry time of year over the eastern tier of the West Region. Easternmost sections of Montana and New Mexico typically record less than 15 percent of their annual total during OND. During Sep 17-23, a robust southerly fetch of tropical moisture is expected from most of the Four Corners Region through the northern Rockies. A broken pattern of 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precipitation is forecast across central and eastern Montana, while similar amounts with isolated higher totals of up to 4 inches are expected farther south. To the west of this swath of precipitation, light precipitation is expected at best. For the last week of September, the 8-14 day forecast covers the West Region with enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation. The long-lead outlooks for October and OND, primarily based on ENSO correlations and analogs to very strong ENSO events, favor above-normal precipitation for the southern tier of states, along with southeastern Utah. Farther north, subnormal OND precipitation is favored in the northern Intermountain West from the Cascades through central and northern Idaho, and the western half of Montana. In other areas, the monthly and seasonal forecasts favor neither above- or below-normal precipitation. The preponderance of these tools supports a forecast of drought persistence from central Nevada and northern Utah northward and westward through Montana, the Pacific Northwest, and northern California. Drought is expected to expand to cover the entirety of western Montana and Idaho, along with areas east of the Cascades near the Washington/Oregon border. Farther south, the monthly and three-monthly forecasts favoring above-normal precipitation support a forecast of improvement or removal in the drought areas across the southern tier of the region, along with central Utah. This is expected despite the fact that this is typically a relatively dry time of year for New Mexico and some adjacent areas. The chances for above-normal OND precipitation are 40 to 50 percent there.



Forecast confidence is high along the southern tier of the West Region, across the northern Intermountain West, and through Montana, and moderate elsewhere.



This is a relatively dry time of year for the High Plains Region, outside the western tiers of Colorado and Wyoming. OND typically contributes only 10 to 15 percent of annual precipitation in sections of the Region east of the Rockies. In the short term, however, abundant precipitation is expected to affect many areas. More than an inch is forecast for Sep 17-23 from northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado northward through much of Nebraska and South Dakota, with amounts topping out around 3 inches in south-central and eastern South Dakota. Both north and south of this swath, anywhere from a few tenths to nearly an inch of precipitation is expected. The OND forecast favors above-normal precipitation from southern South Dakota, southeastern Wyoming, and Colorado southward, with no tilt of the odds toward either wetter or drier than normal conditions noted farther north. The Drought Outlook calls for improvement or removal in areas where either heavy precipitation is anticipated during the last half of September, or the OND forecast shows enhanced chances of above-normal amounts. This is expected to provide relief despite the relatively dry climatology there during this time of year. Chances for above-normal OND precipitation increase southward, reaching 40 to 50 percent in central and western sections of Kansas and in southeastern Colorado. Farther north and west, across northern and western Wyoming and most of the northern and central Dakotas, the expected combination of lighter short-term precipitation and lower odds for above-normal OND amounts supports a forecast of drought persistence in affected areas.



Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is moderate.



Much of the South Region has been extremely hot and acutely dry over the past 6 to 10 weeks, leading to quickly-deteriorating conditions across most locations. In later autumn and early winter, the typical ENSO signal favoring heavier than normal precipitation is expected to prevail, leading to a forecast of drought improvement or removal regionwide. However, conditions in the short-term may get worse before any improvement starts. During Sep 17-23, daily high temperatures are expected to average at least 10 deg F above normal from central Texas and most of Oklahoma eastward across Arkansas, Tennessee, and central and northern sections of Louisiana and Mississippi. In the Lower Mississippi Valley north of Louisiana, daily high temperatures could average over 15 deg F above normal. This corresponds to temperatures reaching at least 90 deg F on average regionwide outside the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and eastern Tennessee. Additionally, highs averaging 95 to 105 deg F are likely across most of the lower elevations of Texas, southern Oklahoma, central and northern Louisiana, most of Arkansas and Mississippi, and the western half of Tennessee. At the same time, 7-day precipitation totals exceeding an inch should be limited to the Texas Panhandle, parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, and the higher elevations of Tennessee. Most locations are expected to receive a few tenths of an inch, at most. Chances for heavier amounts increase toward the end of September, especially outside the Lower Mississippi Valley, then above-normal OND precipitation is favored regionwide, with the greatest chances (40 to 50 percent) across Texas, central and western Oklahoma, Louisiana, southern and central Mississippi, and some adjacent locales. This is neither a particularly wet nor dry time of year, so climatology doesn't play a significant role in the forecast.



Forecast confidence for the South Region is moderate to high, tempered by the expectation that some further intensification will occur before conditions start to improve.



The official OND forecast is nondescript across most of the Midwest Region, with the only tilt of the odds marginally favoring subnormal precipitation across much of central and northern Michigan. This is a relatively dry time of the year in the western reaches of the Region, with western sections of Iowa and Minnesota typically recording about 15 percent of annual precipitation during OND. Across the eastern half of the Region, this is neither a particularly wet nor dry time of year, so climatology is given less consideration. There isn't much drought coverage here relative to some other Regions, with moderate drought or worse limited to southwestern Missouri, much of Minnesota, central and northern Wisconsin, and a few scattered small patches across northern Missouri, northern Illinois, and Michigan. Drought conditions are expected to persist where they affect the northern half of Minnesota, the northernmost tier of Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with improvement or removal forecast farther south across the remainder of the Region. A lot of the improvement is based on the forecast through the remainder of September. During Sep 17-23, more than an inch of precipitation is expected from northern Missouri, central Illinois, central Indiana, and Iowa northward into northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the southern sections of the Upper Peninsula. The largest amounts (over 2 inches) are forecast across southern Minnesota, Iowa, and central and southern sections of the Great Lakes area, with totals expected to exceed 5 inches in part of central Wisconsin. The chances for such intense precipitation drops off during the last week of September, leading into a mostly nondescript forecast for OND. The heavy short-term amounts are the most confident part of the forecast, so the Drought Outlook is based primarily on that, calling for improvement or removal outside the northern tier of the Midwest Region.



Forecast confidence in the Midwest is low due to an unremarkable OND precipitation forecast and uncertainties following the heavy rain this coming week.



Drought covers a significant portion of the Southeast Region, but improvement or removal is expected regionwide by the end of December. During Sep 17-23, over an inch of rain is expected in most areas along the immediate Gulf Coast, in the Appalachians, across the Florida Peninsula, and from the central Carolinas through Virginia. The heaviest totals (2 to locally 5 inches) are forecast across South Florida. Other locations, including most of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and southern South Carolina, are expected to record a few tenths of an inch during this period. Thereafter, the 8-14 day outlook shows enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation regionwide, as does the official OND forecast. The highest likelihoods of above-normal OND precipitation (50 to 70 percent chance) extend across southern sections of South Carolina and Georgia and the northern half of Florida. Given these factors, improvement or removal is the only reasonable forecast to make.



Forecast confidence across the Southeast Region is high.



In the Northeast Region, much of central and northern New England is currently affected by drought. Elsewhere, drought is limited to a few small patches in Maryland, Delaware, southeastern New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, eastern Massachusetts, and adjacent Rhode Island. Severe to extreme drought covered a large part of this Region earlier this year, but conditions have improved progressively in most areas over the past several months. The exception is Maine and some adjacent locales, where drought conditions have intensified slowly over the past couple of months. The official OND forecast marginally favors above-normal precipitation across most of Maryland, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of New Jersey. In contrast, subnormal OND totals are nominally favored across a small strip of New York immediately adjacent to the St. Lawrence Seaway. Elsewhere, neither above- or below-normal precipitation is favored. Moderate to heavy precipitation (an inch or more) is expected Sep 17-23 outside Maine and far northern sections of the Region, with amounts of 2.0 to 3.5 inches forecast across much of the Appalachians, central and northern Pennsylvania, central and southern New York, and northern New Jersey. The 8-14 day forecast for the last week of September favors above-normal precipitation regionwide, with odds of 40 to 50 percent covering areas south of Maine and east of the Appalachians. Due to the wet forecast for most areas during all or part of the last half of September, the outlook favoring surplus OND precipitation in southern parts of the Region, and the typical increase in snowpack and reduced water demand during later autumn and winter, improvement or removal is forecast for all existing areas of drought, although confidence is lower across the northernmost parts, especially Maine.



Forecast confidence in the Northeast Region is high from southern New England and Upstate New York southward, moderate in most areas farther north, and low across central and northern Maine.



Drought is limited to a small area in far Southeast Alaska, where it has been assessed for a few months. Conditions have changed little during this period, and conditions have not intensified beyond D1. The OND forecast here is nondescript, but this is a relatively wet time of year for the region, which increases the odds for some relief. In addition, the active eastern Pacific tropical season has the potential for storms experiencing extratropical transition to recurve toward the southern tier of Alaska, potentially providing enhanced chances of high winds and heavy precipitation. However, dynamical forecast tools are not highlighting any specific system to do so at this time, reducing confidence. No other drought development is anticipated.



Forecast confidence in Alaska is low to moderate.



Abundant precipitation has fallen on most of Hawaii during the past few months, enhanced occasionally by the influence of tropical systems near the island chain. The active season in the eastern tropical Pacific is expected to continue, potentially enhancing precipitation totals at times. But even if no more tropical systems impact Hawaii, heavier than normal precipitation is favored over the next few months, which is common during ENSO episodes. Therefore, no drought development is anticipated.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high.



The Commonwealth has been mired in an intensifying drought for the past few months. During Mar 28-Sep 14, San Juan reported 12.84 inches of rain, when the normal total exceeds 30 inches. Jun-Aug brought less than one-quarter of normal rainfall to San Juan (just under 4 inches with a normal just under 17 inches), and July brought a record low amount of 0.54 inch, with records dating back to 1895. Much of the island is covered by extreme drought (D3), and with a quiet tropical season in the Atlantic Basin expected to continue, there is a reduced chance of tropical systems bringing widespread heavy rain to the Commonwealth. September has seen a bit of an uptick in rainfall, particularly across the northwestern quarter of Puerto Rico, where drought coverage has actually been reduced slightly. Still, with reduced chances that tropical systems will drench the island, drought persistence seems more likely than improvement, although confidence is low. Heavier rains observed over the northwestern quarter of the Commonwealth are expected to preclude any drought expansion into that region.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is low.



Like Puerto Rico, drought has been steadily intensifying across the U.S. Virgin Islands during the past few months. St. John, St. Thomas, and St. Croix have been mired in extreme drought (D3) for several months now. There has been a slight increase in rainfall during Sep, but amounts have not been sufficient to pull the region out of D3. And with a quiet tropical season in the Atlantic Basin expected to continue, there is a reduced chance of a tropical system bringing widespread heavy rain. As a result, drought persistence seems more likely than improvement, although confidence is low.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is low.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT