Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July and July-August-September (JAS), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JAS, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on June 16, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Precipitation climatology varies widely over the Western Region during Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS). For approximately the southwestern half of California, typically 2 percent or less of its annual precipitation is received at this time of year, with up to 10 percent of its annual precipitation obtained over most of the remaining northeastern half of California. In extreme southeastern California, southern Nevada, and portions of southern Utah, 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation is received in JAS. These somewhat elevated percentages are due to the proximity of the monsoon region. Up to 10 percent of annual precipitation is usually received in Washington state, Oregon, western Idaho, and northern Nevada, and up to 20 percent over eastern Idaho, western Montana, parts of southern Nevada, and northern Utah. In contrast, Arizona and New Mexico typically receive 30-50 percent of their annual precipitation during JAS, and >50 percent over southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, in large part due to the seasonal summer monsoon, Gulf surges, and occasional moisture from an East Pacific tropical cyclone.



During week-1, WPC predicts very little precipitation across the Western Region. The CPC week-2 temperature and precipitation outlooks favor significantly elevated chances of warmer-than-normal conditions, with a mixed precipitation pattern of below, near, and above-normal in various locations. CPC's monthly outlook for July and seasonal outlook for July-August-September (JAS) are similar in appearance, favoring anomalous warmth over the Western Region, below-normal precipitation over part of the Pacific Northwest, and widespread above-normal precipitation over much of the Western Region. The anomalous wetness over much of the Region is based on a predicted active monsoon this summer. The Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) valid June 18-September 30, 2026 promotes drought development over portions of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California based on a general consensus of the temperature and precipitation outlooks mentioned earlier and JAS precipitation climatology. Improvement and/or Removal of drought conditions is indicated over much of the central and western monsoon region, augmented by gulf surges and potentially increased tropical cyclone activity over the Eastern Pacific this season due to El Niño and associated reduced wind shear over the basin. Drought persistence is deemed most likely over northwestern portions of the Lower 48 states, based on unusually low snowpack accumulated during the past winter, prevailing above-normal temperatures, and generally low precipitation amounts.



Forecast confidence across the Western Region is high for the Persistence areas, and moderate for the monsoon region.



The High Plains region typically receives anywhere from 30-50 percent of its annual precipitation during the JAS season, with these percentages ramping down fairly quickly after peaking in MJJ (May-Jun-Jul) and JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug). On the drier side is Wyoming, which normally receives 15-20 percent of its annual precipitation over western portions of the state, and 20-30 percent over central and eastern Wyoming. Northwestern Colorado gets approximately 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation during JAS.



For much of the High Plains Region, drought persistence is the most likely category. Drought development is introduced over North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota, based in part on deteriorating 30-day and 60-day percent of normal precipitation (PNP). This area of indicated development is also tied to the absence of a clear wet signal at the monthly and seasonal time scales. However, this expected drought development may be mitigated by cooler temperatures and reduced evapotranspiration demand. Though near to below-normal temperatures are favored for the first two weeks of the drought period accompanied by decent precipitation, uncertainty increases significantly over time. The 30-day and 90-day temperature outlooks favor Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal temperatures over eastern portions of the Northern and Central Lower Plains, and above-normal temperatures over western portions of the Region.



Forecast confidence across the High Plains Region is generally moderate, and low over the Dakotas.



Normally over the western and far southern portions of the Southern Region, 30-40 percent of the annual precipitation falls in JAS. From northeastern Texas to western Tennessee, the precipitation percentages range from 15-20 percent, with the remainder of the Southern Region normally receiving 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation at this time of year.



Western portions of the Southern Region (Oklahoma and Texas) are expected to see a continuation of drought conditions, with the introduction of a new drought development area over central portions of Texas. This area will likely be dominated by warmer-than-normal temperatures and high rates of evapotranspiration. Eastern portions of the Southern Region (Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and northeastern Louisiana) however, are more likely to experience improvement and/or drought removal, as 5-7 inches of rain is forecast to fall during the first week of the drought period with relatively high confidence. This area is under the influence of Tropical Storm Arthur. The 30-day and 90-day precipitation outlooks showcase broad coverage of favored below-normal amounts of rain, which is consistent with JAS ENSO composites of precipitation, with most of the remaining area depicted as EC.



Forecast confidence across the Southern Region is considered moderate to high for western areas, and low to moderate across eastern areas.



Across the Midwest, everywhere northwest of a line from about Kansas City, MO to Alpena, MI, typically receives 30-40 percent of its annual precipitation in JAS, while percentages southeast of that line fall within the 20-30 percent range.



The Midwestern Region has fared reasonably well so far this warm season, with much of the region reporting either abnormal dryness or drought-free conditions. Three to seven inches of rain is forecast in the short-term (week-1) over approximately the southern half of the Region. This very heavy rainfall is expected to result in the removal of any drought from approximately the Wisconsin-Illinois border southward. Relatively cool, wet conditions are favored during week-2 as well. Temperature signals at the monthly and seasonal time scales show weak or conflicting indications, thereby warranting a temperature forecast of EC, with perhaps a slight tilt towards below-normal conditions during JAS, which is consistent with El Niño temperature composites for this season. For monthly precipitation, the outlook favors below-normal precipitation over northwest portions of the Midwest region, above-normal precipitation over southeast portions, with EC in-between. For the seasonal timescale, below-normal is favored for northern portions, and EC elsewhere. The SDO therefore favors drought development and/or persistence over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley.



Forecast confidence across the Midwest Region is moderate.



For the Southeast Region, interior locations can typically expect to receive 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation during JAS. Near the coast, precipitation percentages range from 30-40 percent (in part due to sea breezes), while over Florida the values increase from 40-50 percent. The first month of the season, July, is known for the recently established rainy season (climatologically) in Florida, with an active sea-breeze convergence pattern and, along with June, signifies the peak of lightning flashes.



Anywhere from 3-7 inches (locally up to 10 inches) of precipitation is predicted by WPC for portions of Alabama and Georgia during week-1. These areas, in addition to Florida and near the Southeast coast, are favored to experience improvement and/or drought removal during JAS, and are supported by the adjusted objective SDO tool. There is greater uncertainty regarding interior portions of the Carolinas and most of Virginia. The extended-range (days 6-14) precipitation outlooks favor abnormal wetness for this region, though monthly and seasonal outlooks favor above-normal temperatures and mostly EC for precipitation. With the general lack of a clear wet signal at the 30-day and 90-day ranges, and the expectation of above-normal temperatures and resulting increased evapotranspiration rates, it is thought that persistence is the most likely category for this area.



Forecast confidence across the Southeast Region is moderate.



With few exceptions, the Northeast Region can typically expect to receive 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation during JAS.



Across the interior portions of the Northeast Region, improvement and/or drought removal is expected. CPC's monthly and seasonal outlooks tilt the odds towards above-normal precipitation in these areas. The drought outlook for near-coastal locations from the Delmarva Peninsula northeastward to Cape Cod is less clear. Though EC or above-normal precipitation is favored for the region, it is thought that the received rainfall accumulation may not be enough to erase both long-term and short-term drought conditions, thereby favoring drought persistence. USGS stream flows within this broad area mostly lie below the 10th climatological percentile, emphasizing the hydrologic component of drought in this area as well. Typically at this time of year, thunderstorms rumbling across northern New Jersey fall apart once they reach the cool, dense marine air at the coast, resulting from daily sea-breezes over Long Island (especially the South Shore) and southern New England. The collapse of these thunderstorms results in drier conditions for locales farther east (i.e. Long Island and southern New England), lending additional support for the persistence designation.



Forecast confidence across the Northeast Region is considered moderate for inland areas and low-to-moderate for coastal areas.



For Alaska, 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation is normally received during JAS near much of the southcentral coast and Aleutians, and for St. Lawrence and Nunivak Islands off the Bering coast. Typical monthly precipitation normals for Anchorage in July, August, and September, respectively, are 1.82 inches, 2.93 inches, and 3.10 inches. Moving into Southeastern Alaska, 20-30 percent of its annual precipitation is normally obtained during JAS. In Juneau, typical monthly precipitation amounts, respectively, are 5.14 inches (Jul), 6.41 inches (Aug), and 9.15 inches (Sep). For the Alaska Interior, anywhere from 30-50 percent (or greater) of the annual precipitation can be expected at this time of year. For Fairbanks, the respective monthly precipitation totals are 2.26 inches, 2.10 inches, and 1.35 inches. The North Slope region typically receives 45-50 percent (or more) of its annual precipitation in JAS. Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) normally receives monthly precipitation amounts of, respectively, 0.98-inch, 1.09 inches, and 0.77-inch.



There is no drought in Alaska at this time, and none is forecast during JAS.



Forecast confidence for Alaska is moderate to high.



The climatological dry season in Hawaii typically includes the warmer half of the calendar year. Typical monthly precipitation climatology in Honolulu includes 0.51-inch in July, 0.56-inch in August, and 0.70-inch in September. For Kahului (Maui) the amounts are, respectively, 0.50-inch, 0.50-inch, and 0.38-inch. For the much wetter climatology of Hilo (Big Island), the typical monthly precipitation amounts are 10.81 inches, 9.85 inches, and 9.94 inches.



There is no drought in Hawaii at this time, and none is forecast during JAS. This is largely based on predictions of above-normal precipitation during the monthly and seasonal time scales.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate.



Precipitation climatology varies widely across Puerto Rico. The JAS season is part of their rainy season, in part because of the proximity of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the higher frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and diurnal heating of very humid air to form showers and thunderstorms.



This summer, with the current El Niño in place and forecast to strengthen, normally increased westerly wind shear would significantly reduce the number and/or intensity of tropical cyclones that develop. Suggestive of a drier pattern overall, this scenario is backed by the very dry forecasts of the NMME and IMME ensemble suites. Therefore, drought development and/or intensification is favored for Puerto Rico in JAS.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is moderate to high.



Precipitation climatology varies widely across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Similar to Puerto Rico, the JAS season is part of their rainy season, in part because of the proximity of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the higher frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and diurnal heating of very humid air to form showers and thunderstorms.



The same physical considerations that apply to Puerto Rico also apply to the USVI. Therefore, persistence and/or intensification of drought conditions are forecast.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is moderate to high.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT