No consistency adjustments to the Seasonal Drought Outlook were necessary.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - No consistency adjustments to the Seasonal Drought Outlook were necessary.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought is likely to persist and expand over the West due to: a low snowpack, early onset of snowmelt, record heat in mid to late March, and an increased chance of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures during April-May-June (AMJ). Forecast confidence is high for this expanding drought coverage across the West during the spring.



Drought expanded and intensified across the Southern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast this past winter which is typical for La Niña. Unlike the West, forecast confidence is much lower from the Great Plans to the East Coast. Despite an increasingly wet time of year, drought is forecast to persist or develop for the Great Plains as the April-May-June outlook leans towards the drier side for the High Plains and also above-normal temperatures are favored. Persistence is forecast for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys where equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation along with an increased chance of above-normal temperatures are forecast. Consistent with the AMJ precipitation outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, drought improvement is forecast for the Coastal Plain of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Improving drought conditions are also favored for Florida, but any improvement is not expected until June when its wet season ramps up. An increasingly wet climatology supports drought improvement and removal for the Midwest and this extends south to the Ozarks region. Drought persistence is forecast for the long-term drought areas of New England.



Any lingering drought for Hawaii is likely to end soon. Although no development is anticipated at this time for Alaska, parts of the state could be vulnerable to emerging drought by June. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought-free.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion