There are no major changes in forecast reasoning between the May monthly drought outlook and the seasonal outlook that was released on April 16. Drought development in California and the Great Basin is most likely to develop subsequent to May. Small adjustments to the areas of drought reduction across the Southeast reflect the latest precipitation guidance.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - There are no major changes in forecast reasoning between the May monthly drought outlook and the seasonal outlook that was released on April 16. Drought development in California and the Great Basin is most likely to develop subsequent to May. Small adjustments to the areas of drought reduction across the Southeast reflect the latest precipitation guidance.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought persistence and expansion is expected across a large part of the northern and western sections of the western half of the contiguous United States. Markedly low snowfall totals were noted throughout areas from the Rockies westward this past cold season, and the lack of melting snow may not provide the boost to water supplies and surface moisture that typically occurs during the late spring. Farther south, however, there are enhanced chances for above-normal June precipitation in some areas, and monsoon rains may be enhanced across a large part of the Four Corners States later in the summer. Drought improvement and limited areas of removal are anticipated in these regions. Above-normal summer precipitation may reach farther north and west into Utah and much of Wyoming, but summer is typically drier there than in areas farther south, and above-normal amounts still may not be sufficient to bring significant drought relief.



From the Plains eastward, the Drought Outlook is a mixed bag, but some areas of substantial relief are expected. Heavy rainfall is expected through the end of May across Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and some adjacent areas despite odds slightly favoring subnormal summer rainfall along the western Gulf Coast. Some relief is also anticipated across most of Florida and portions of Georgia and the coastal southern Carolinas due to expected increases in rainfall later in the summer, consistent with climatology. Drought improvement or removal is also forecast in the Northeast where the summer forecasts show somewhat enhanced chances for above-normal rainfall. Meanwhile, drought is expected to persist in the interior Southeast where both climatology and the official outlooks favor less robust precipitation. Farther west, drought is also expected to persist from the south-central Great Plains northward, with drought development anticipated through the northern Great Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. A warmer than normal summer is forecast for these areas, along with enhanced chances for below-normal summer precipitation across the northeastern Great Plains and adjacent Mississippi Valley.



There are small patches of abnormal dryness on the Drought Monitor in Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but drought development is not forecast by the end of summer. A wetter than normal summer is anticipated across Hawaii, and while chances for development are slightly better elsewhere, the consensus of indicators does not support a forecast of development in any specific area.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 18, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion