The seasonal drought outlook for August - October 2026 has been updated for consistency with the August monthly drought outlook and the latest guidance. Drought persistence over the High Plains has become more likely, as the latest guidance depicts a more western focus to the enhanced monsoon activity. Drought persistence is also favored for remaining drought areas over southern Texas. The improvements indicated on the original seasonal outlook were based on short term forecasts, and all potential improvement from that rainfall has now been realized. Drought development forecast to occur during August across the northern Plains is maintained on the updated seasonal outlook, as are drought improvements across the Southeast.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The seasonal drought outlook for August - October 2026 has been updated for consistency with the August monthly drought outlook and the latest guidance. Drought persistence over the High Plains has become more likely, as the latest guidance depicts a more western focus to the enhanced monsoon activity. Drought persistence is also favored for remaining drought areas over southern Texas. The improvements indicated on the original seasonal outlook were based on short term forecasts, and all potential improvement from that rainfall has now been realized. Drought development forecast to occur during August across the northern Plains is maintained on the updated seasonal outlook, as are drought improvements across the Southeast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 30 days, drought conditions remain nearly unchanged across much of the West. Across the North Central and South Central Plains, improvement was followed by worsening (1 to 3 class degradation). Over the Southeast, 1 to 3 class improvement was observed. Across the Northeast, removal was followed by development. Overall, as of August 11, 2026, about 74% of the CONUS was covered by anomalous dry conditions and nearly half of the CONUS was under moderate to exceptional (D1 to D4) drought conditions. Looking ahead from the remainder of August through the end of November, very strong El Niño conditions are favored to have an increasing impact on climate anomalies. Across the Pacific Northwest, the CPC outlooks favor warmer and dry weather patterns, with seasonably dry conditions for larger parts of the September-October-November season, drought persistence is expected and additional drought expansion across parts of the Northwest is likely. Enhanced monsoon moisture driven by warmer Pacific ocean temperatures favors widespread drought reduction across the Southwest, Great Basin region and much of the Rockies. Drought persistence is anticipated across parts of the Northern and Southern Great Plains, with some potential development due to lack of wet signals in the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks. Across the Southeast, seasonable wetness favors a gradual reduction in drought coverage, but the potential for reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, may make drought slower to ease across portions of the region. Daily seabreeze convection across Florida may also not be sufficient to completely remove drought conditions that were very intense at the onset of the summer rainy season. Across southern parts of the Northeast region, drought reduction is favored, while persistence is anticipated for the existing drought across northeastern portions of the Northeast region.



Recent D1 (moderate) drought conditions in east-central Alaska are projected to improve, whereas those in southeastern Alaska are expected to continue. Drought is neither present nor forecast for the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, drought conditions continue to actively expand across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The anticipated strong El Niño will likely suppress convective activity, further exacerbating regional impacts.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: September 17, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion