The main changes in the updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) compared to the original one released about two weeks ago are focused on two areas; the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley. For the first region, the original SDO depicted improvement over much of the region outside of the Arklatex (where drought persistence was favored), with odds favoring below-normal precipitation in JAS 2026 over western parts of the area including the Arklatex. However, the Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) and the latest CPC precipitation outlook for July are not as optimistic, with drought persistence and mostly EC in the precipitation outlook. Though some improvement may occur east of the Arklatex in August and September, the overall signal favors drier conditions and a better chance for drought persistence. For the second region, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the SDO released on June 18th supported a pattern of continuing drought along with new development. The corresponding precipitation pattern called for Equal Chances in this area. The MDO indicates some short-term relief is likely, with a return to drier conditions by mid to late July. Accordingly, the July precipitation outlook calls for a mix of Below normal and EC for precipitation, indicating even though the area may experience some short-term relief, there is a longer-term tendency for drier conditions to return.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The main changes in the updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) compared to the original one released about two weeks ago are focused on two areas; the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley. For the first region, the original SDO depicted improvement over much of the region outside of the Arklatex (where drought persistence was favored), with odds favoring below-normal precipitation in JAS 2026 over western parts of the area including the Arklatex. However, the Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) and the latest CPC precipitation outlook for July are not as optimistic, with drought persistence and mostly EC in the precipitation outlook. Though some improvement may occur east of the Arklatex in August and September, the overall signal favors drier conditions and a better chance for drought persistence. For the second region, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the SDO released on June 18th supported a pattern of continuing drought along with new development. The corresponding precipitation pattern called for Equal Chances in this area. The MDO indicates some short-term relief is likely, with a return to drier conditions by mid to late July. Accordingly, the July precipitation outlook calls for a mix of Below normal and EC for precipitation, indicating even though the area may experience some short-term relief, there is a longer-term tendency for drier conditions to return.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought development is expected over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California during the July-August-September (JAS) 2026 outlook period, due in large part to a very dry climatology. For a large portion of the Western region, improvement and removal of drought conditions is favored, with the expectation of an enhanced monsoon season. This is attributed, in large part, to the current El Niño and its predicted strengthening which typically reduces the westerly wind shear over the tropical eastern Pacific. This, in turn, normally results in a more active tropical cyclone season and the increased opportunities for enhanced moisture from these systems making it into the Southwestern U.S., in addition to gulf surges which are often noted at this time of year. For much of the remainder of the Western Region, drought persistence is favored, due to expected above-normal temperatures, little precipitation, and unusually low snowpack that accumulated during the past winter.



Persistence of drought is favored for most of the High Plains region, which has now passed the peak of their wet season. The exceptions include western portions of Colorado and Wyoming, which are within the monsoon area and therefore favored to see improvement and/or removal of drought, and much of the Dakotas, where drought development is introduced. Thirty-day and 60-day percent-of-normal precipitation maps depict gradually increasing precipitation deficits in this area, which extend into much of Minnesota in the Midwest Region. Somewhat reduced temperatures in the shorter and extended ranges, and Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, and below-normal temperatures in the monthly and seasonal outlooks suggest mitigation of moisture loss through evapotranspiration demand.



For the Southern Region, drought persistence is favored for Oklahoma, much of Texas, the Ark-La-Tex region, and southeastern Louisiana. Below-normal precipitation is favored at the 30-day and 90-day time scales over much of this region based on historical El Niño precipitation composites for the JAS season. New drought development is indicated over much of central Texas. Over eastern portions of the Southern Region, improvement and removal of drought conditions are favored, in large part due to very heavy rainfall (3-7 inches, locally 10 inches) expected in the short-term (week-1) associated with Tropical Storm Arthur centered near the northwestern Gulf coast.



The Midwest Region is forecast to receive heavy precipitation (3-7 inches) in the next 7-days, which should lead to improvement and/or removal of drought for southern and central portions of this Region. The only place where drought persistence and development is indicated is over the vicinity of Minnesota and Wisconsin.



Over the Southeast Region, improvement and/or removal is favored for much of the Region, due to a combination of anticipated short-term precipitation and a wet climatology for Florida and the coastal Southeast. This wet climatology is largely related to the daily sea-breeze convergence zones of Florida generating lots of lift of very humid air and resulting heavy rainfall, and sea-breeze activity near the Southeast coast. Over interior portions of the Carolinas and Virginia, there is significantly more uncertainty. Based on a lack of a well-defined wet signal at the monthly and seasonal time ranges, and elevated odds for warmer-than-normal temperatures and therefore increased evapotranspiration rates, drought persistence is deemed more likely for this area.



For the Northeast Region, persistence is favored for most of the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Cape Cod, MA. It is unclear at this time whether or not received precipitation amounts for the JAS season will be enough to offset long-term and short-term drought considerations. The better chance for improvement and/or drought removal is for central and northern New England, which also has some support from the official JAS precipitation outlook, and week-1 and week-2 precipitation outlooks.



There is no drought currently in Alaska or Hawaii, and none is expected to develop during JAS. Across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, drought development is favored, despite this being the typical rainy season for this area. The El Niño that is now in place is predicted to strengthen, and this usually results in increased westerly wind shear which is very destructive to tropical systems that are trying to develop. Based on this consideration, and strong support from the NMME and IMME ensemble systems, new drought development is favored.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion