There are no major changes in forecast reasoning between the May monthly drought outlook and the seasonal outlook that was released on April 16. Drought development in California and the Great Basin is most likely to develop subsequent to May. Small adjustments to the areas of drought reduction across the Southeast reflect the latest precipitation guidance.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - There are no major changes in forecast reasoning between the May monthly drought outlook and the seasonal outlook that was released on April 16. Drought development in California and the Great Basin is most likely to develop subsequent to May. Small adjustments to the areas of drought reduction across the Southeast reflect the latest precipitation guidance.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Extensive drought conditions continue across much of the nation, with over 60-percent of the contiguous United States currently experiencing drought conditions as of the April 7 US Drought Monitor. During the last month, widespread drought expansion and intensification occurred across the West, the central US, and the Southeast south of the Ohio River, as dry conditions and above-normal temperatures combined with increasing Spring evapotranspiration rates to rapidly dry soils and reduce streamflow levels. In contrast, several rounds of heavy precipitation eased drought across much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. A potent Kona Low brought flooding rainfall and eased drought conditions across Hawaii, while Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands remain drought free.



During the upcoming 3-month period, below-average precipitation favored for the Northwest combined with much below-normal mountain snow cover will likely lead to drought persistence and expansion. Poor snow conditions across the Sierras will also be a concern for California, which relies on recharge from snowmelt to maintain reservoir levels and adequate streamflow during the summer dry season. Across the Southwest, though the monsoon is favored to be robust, precipitation will likely be insufficient through the end of July to significantly impact the ongoing drought conditions. A greater chance for drought reductions exists across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, where storminess in the short term and a favorable monthly outlook may provide sufficient boosts in moisture. For the East, rapidly deteriorating drought conditions instead of an early spring recharge, which have resulted in dry soils, low streamflows, and continued longer term groundwater concerns preclude the potential for widespread drought reduction as evapotranspiration rates begin peaking in the summer, even though the seasonal precipitation outlook slightly favors above-normal precipitation. The best chance for drought reduction exists across Florida, where the rainy season is soon to begin, and along the immediate coastlines, where summertime seabreeze convection may help bring some drought relief.



Drought removal is favored for Hawaii's Big Island, where anomalous southwesterly flow should provide additional chances for enhanced precipitation. Drought development is not anticipated across Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands, though dryness is favored across the Alaska Panhandle, and suppressed convection may overspread the Caribbean region, especially if conditions trend towards El Niño towards the end of the period.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: May 21, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion