The Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) valid through the end of December has been modified for consistency with the October Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO, valid through October) and the latest Drought Monitor. Few modifications were necessary. Heavy precipitation from late September into early October across eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota (2 to 6 inches in many locations) prompted changes from "persistence" to "improvement" (D1 areas on September 22 Drought Monitor) or "removal" (D2-D3 areas). Similarly, increased rainfall early in the period supported a change from "persistence" to "improvement" or "removal" across the northeastern and upper southwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the "development" forecast areas from the northern Rockies through the Pacific Northwest were expanded to include some areas where D1 has been removed since the mid-September release. The official October-December seasonal outlook favors subnormal 3-month precipitation totals in these areas, so drought is expected to re-develop by the end of the calendar year.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) valid through the end of December has been modified for consistency with the October Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO, valid through October) and the latest Drought Monitor. Few modifications were necessary. Heavy precipitation from late September into early October across eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota (2 to 6 inches in many locations) prompted changes from "persistence" to "improvement" (D1 areas on September 22 Drought Monitor) or "removal" (D2-D3 areas). Similarly, increased rainfall early in the period supported a change from "persistence" to "improvement" or "removal" across the northeastern and upper southwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the "development" forecast areas from the northern Rockies through the Pacific Northwest were expanded to include some areas where D1 has been removed since the mid-September release. The official October-December seasonal outlook favors subnormal 3-month precipitation totals in these areas, so drought is expected to re-develop by the end of the calendar year.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - The strong El Niño and likelihood for above-normal precipitation during November-December-January (NDJ) support drought improvement and removal for the East Coast, Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Great Plains, and Southwest. Due to recent heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Isaias and large above-normal precipitation probabilities in the NDJ outlook, there is high confidence that drought ends across the Southeast. Although improvement is expected across the Southwest, long-term drought impacts may linger for this region. An increasingly wet climatology favors drought improvement and removal for California and western parts of Oregon and Washington. Based on the NDJ outlook leaning towards the drier side and with above-normal temperatures favored during this three-month period, development and worsening drought are forecast across the Northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies. Little to no change in drought coverage or intensity are expected across the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as the climatology becomes increasingly drier later this fall into the winter.



Alaska and Hawaii are expected to be drought-free at the end of January, while drought intensity is forecast to remain steady for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands the next few months.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 19, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion