Since mid-December, atmospheric activity shifted southward to California, resulting in widespread heavy precipitation. An active pattern is favored to continue into the first two weeks of January. Based on this latest information, drought development is no longer anticipated for the desert regions of southeastern California. Across the lower Mississippi Valley region, the dividing line between drought persistence and reductions was shifted northward based on updated guidance for January and recent drought degradations in the region.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Since mid-December, atmospheric activity shifted southward to California, resulting in widespread heavy precipitation. An active pattern is favored to continue into the first two weeks of January. Based on this latest information, drought development is no longer anticipated for the desert regions of southeastern California. Across the lower Mississippi Valley region, the dividing line between drought persistence and reductions was shifted northward based on updated guidance for January and recent drought degradations in the region.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought coverage decreased throughout the West during the early 2025-26 winter, while drought expanded and intensified across the Central to Southern Great Plains and much of the Southeast. Based on the February-March-April (FMA) outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, additional drought removal and improvement are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies. However, snow water equivalent remains below average for many of these areas. This lack of an adequate snowpack would be a concern heading later into the spring. Forecast confidence is high that drought persists and develops across the Southwest and Central to Southern Great Plains. Due to an increased chance of above-normal precipitation beginning in late January and continuing through FMA, improvement and removal are forecast from eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi north through most of the Midwest. Drought persistence is more likely for northwestern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota where climatology is drier especially during the late winter.



Forecast confidence for the East is highest across the Florida Peninsula where persistence and development are favored due to an increased chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during FMA. Confidence is much lower farther to the north across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as broad-scale persistence is the most likely outcome at this time. Any recovery from the ongoing hydrological drought is expected to be slow for these areas with no strong wet signal among the tools. IThis includes the FMA outlook which calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation along the northern half of the East Coast. Drought removal and improvement are more likely for parts of the Central Appalachians along with western parts of Pennsylvania and New York where the FMA outlook leans towards above-normal precipitation.



A wet pattern is likely to persist for Hawaii where continued drought removal and improvement are forecast. Alaska is expected to remain drought-free through the end of April. Parts of Puerto Rico are experiencing abnormal dryness, but where any drought develops is uncertain. Given the drier time of year, persistence is forecast for St John and St Thomas of the U.S. Virgin Islands with development expected for St Croix.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 19, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion