The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) reflects minor adjustments driven by the latest forecasts. Drought persistence was expanded across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming. Conversely, drought improvement and removal areas were expanded in parts of the Pacific Northwest, supported by WPC forecasts of 1 to 4 inches of heavy precipitation and CPC extended-range and monthly outlooks favoring above-normal rainfall for September.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) reflects minor adjustments driven by the latest forecasts. Drought persistence was expanded across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming. Conversely, drought improvement and removal areas were expanded in parts of the Pacific Northwest, supported by WPC forecasts of 1 to 4 inches of heavy precipitation and CPC extended-range and monthly outlooks favoring above-normal rainfall for September.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 4 weeks, the most significant changes have been observed over portions of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, where a persistent mid-level ridge has kept conditions extremely hot and acutely dry since at least mid-summer. As of September 15, 2026, Dallas TX has received no measurable rainfall since July 15, when over 4.5 inches would normally be expected. Oklahoma City OK recorded only 0.29 inch since July 18, compared to a normal around 7 inches. At scattered locations, subnormal precipitation dates back to late June. In Wichita KS, normally over 10 inches of rain falls during June 27-September 14, but only 1.57 inches was reported this year. The dryness across this region was often accompanied by extreme heat. In Dallas TX, temperatures surpassed 100 deg F on 41 of 46 days from August through mid-September, compared to only 4 days last year. Heat has actually intensified this month over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas, with locations like Joplin MO and Fayetteville AR reporting higher average temperatures during the first half of September than during August. The average August temperature at Joplin MO was 83.9 deg F (nearly 5 deg F above normal) which has increased to 85.6 deg F during the first half of September (over 12 deg F above normal). Most locations from central and western Texas through northern Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and southwestern Missouri experienced 2- to 3-category deterioration on the Drought Monitor during the last 4 weeks.



Elsewhere, lesser changes in the Drought Monitor were observed, though some isolated patches saw 2-category changes. Across some areas, high variability was observed, with areas of deterioration intermingled with improvement. Dryness and drought intensified from the central Dakotas through the northern Great Lakes, but areas of improvement were noted both north and south of this band (from northeastern Montana to north-central Minnesota; and from parts of central Wyoming and eastern Colorado through Nebraska, parts of South Dakota, and western Iowa, respectively). More areas of improvement than deterioration were noted across much of the interior West, but lesser precipitation totals farther west made deterioration more common across the Great Basin and the West Coast States. Farther east, improvement was common from central Wisconsin through central Illinois, and from the lower Northeast through much of Virginia, in addition to the Florida Peninsula, southeastern Georgia, and scattered patches across the Carolinas. Deterioration was less common along the Eastern Seaboard, restricted to central and western Georgia, parts of southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina, and upper New England. Drought also worsened across most of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where many areas are now experiencing extreme (D3) drought. Conditions in far southeastern Alaska were essentially unchanged, with a persisting area of moderate drought.



For the forecast period extending through the end of the calendar year, the Drought Outlook calls for improvement across a considerably larger area than persistence or deterioration. Essentially, areas from the northern Great Lakes and Plains, the central Rockies, and the Great Basin to the north and west are expected to see existing areas of drought remain unchanged or intensify, with at least moderate drought expected to expand across western Montana, central Idaho, and near the Washington/Oregon border from the Cascades eastward. Across the rest of the 48 contiguous states and southeastern Alaska, existing drought coverage is expected to decline, with widespread improvement or removal forecast. This is due to either expected heavy precipitation during the last half of September (North-Central and Northeastern States), or the anticipated late autumn increase in precipitation that typically accompanies El Niño events (the southern tier of the country, plus the central Plains and Middle Atlantic Region). Across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, however, conditions may worsen before they get better, with hot and dry conditions expected to continue into at least late September. Across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the unusually low tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin is expected to continue, causing drought there to persist or worsen. Meanwhile, the eastern tropical Pacific has been unusually active, with several tropical systems bringing heavy rain to Hawaii. This has removed all drought designations from the state. This highly active tropical season is expected to continue, so chances for drought development across Hawaii are low.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion