Calibration models statistically relate dynamical model reforecasts to observations over some historical period. These statistical relationships are then applied to correct real-time dynamical model forecasts. A bayesian joint probability method of calibration (EW + CRPS) is applied here, along with re-plotted ELR-calibrated forecasts courtesy of IRI. Contact Johnna Infanti (johnna.infanti@noaa.gov) or Justin Hicks (justin.hicks@noaa.gov) with any questions or comments.

North America | Global | Africa | Central America | Hispaniola | Hawaii

BJP Calibrated Skill Maps

IRI ELR Calibration

Z T P

Raw Individual Model Forecast Anomalies

Individual Model Anomalies (Raw)
North America | Global | Africa | Central America | Hispaniola | Hawaii

Individual Model Probabilities (BJR-Calibrated)
North America | Global | Africa | Central America | Hispaniola | Hawaii

Individual Model Probabilities (ELR-Calibrated)
North America | Global | Africa | Central America | Hispaniola | Hawaii

Individual Model Probabilities (2-Category)
North America | Global | Africa | Central America | Hispaniola | Hawaii

Individual Model Probabilities (3-Category)
North America | Global | Africa | Central America | Hispaniola | Hawaii

Verification (HSS, Expected Count)
Heidke Skill Score

Verification (ACC, Hit/Miss)
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient
Hit/Miss