|
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
Verifications
Related Products
HPC: ,
About Us
Contact Us
6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
|
|
|
|
HOME>
Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
|
|
Prognostic Discussions
|
Valid: Apr 24 - 28, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook) Valid: Apr 26 - May 02, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook) Issued: Apr 18, 2014 |
|
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 18 2014
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2014
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE NCEP GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS FORECAST A SPLIT FLOW AT THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER CANADA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE IN CONTRAST
FORECASTS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL U.S. AND OVER CANADA. THE OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT-BLEND FORECAST WEIGHTS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE ECMWF AND
NCEP MODELS MORE THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE EITHER ABOVE NORMAL OR THERE IS
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALASKA
DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
MOST REGIONS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN AREAS IMPACTED BY A PREDICTED
TROUGH. SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ARE EXCEPTIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN TOTALS IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STRONG
PACIFIC FLOW AND ALSO FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE EAST, DUE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH
OVER THESE REGIONS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST WITH A PREDICTION OF
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR WESTERN ALASKA WITH A PREDICTED
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA.
MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2014
THE ECMWF AND NCEP MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEK-2 FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DIFFERS
FROM THE CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND NCEP GEFS MODELS WERE EQUALLY WEIGHTED TO
MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WAS NOT
USED. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2
FORECAST, WHILE THE PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
THE PROBABILITIES THAT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST
HAVE INCREASED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST.
PROBABILITIES THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL CONTINUE
TO BE ENHANCED FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HAS INCREASED FOR THE GULF
COAST.
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS INTO THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD HAS DECREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE BELOW MEDIAN TOTALS IN THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS IN THE EAST AND IN WESTERN
ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND
50
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940405 - 20040421 - 19930427 - 19940429 - 19690416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19930427 - 19940430 - 19690415 - 19940404 - 20040421
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 28 2014
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - MAY 02, 2014
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
|
|
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
Our Mission,
Who We Are,
CPC Information,
CPC Web Team |
|
|
|