Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussions

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue July 14 2026 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 24 2026 
 
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in reasonably good  
agreement on the predicted highly amplified 500-hPa mean circulation pattern  
across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day  
period, and are consistent on underlying variations in the pattern through the  
period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF  
model stronger due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill. The manual  
blend indicates a strong anomalous mid-level ridge with above normal 500-hPa  
height anomalies over the northwestern Contiguous United States (CONUS)  
extending northwestward to Southeast Alaska and eastern Mainland Alaska. The  
magnitude of the positive height anomalies is gradually forecast to diminish  
toward the end of the period. A trough and associated below normal 500-hPa  
height anomalies are predicted over the northeastern CONUS. A deep anomalous  
trough and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Bering Sea and  
western Mainland Alaska. Near to modestly above normal 500-hPa height anomalies  
are predicted in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands in model forecasts.  
 
Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the western and  
southeastern CONUS, due to expansive ridging and enhanced southerly surface  
moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Confidence is high (greater than 70  
percent chance) for above normal temperatures across portions of Washington,  
and greater than 60 percent over most of the Florida Peninsula, which are  
related to above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf  
and Atlantic. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the  
northeastern CONUS due to a retrograding trough. Near to below normal  
temperatures are also favored across parts of the Southwest and adjacent areas  
of the southern High Plains, as cloudiness and precipitation may keep maximum  
temperatures down. Below normal temperatures are favored for most of  
southwestern and south-central Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, due to  
predicted anomalous troughing. Due to the expected long duration of this  
trough, confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for below normal  
temperatures for parts of the Alaska Peninsula and the southwestern Mainland,  
while above normal temperatures are likely over parts of the eastern Mainland  
Alaska and Southeast Alaska, under above normal 500-hPa heights. Above normal  
temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal  
SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.  
 
Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a favorable position and  
orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection. As such, above normal  
precipitation is favored across most of the West, Rockies, and High Plains,  
with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across parts of the Northern and  
Central Great Basin, the Southwest and surrounding regions. Above normal  
precipitation is also favored across much of the Eastern CONUS, related to a  
mid-level trough and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf of  
America, supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Below  
normal precipitation is forecast over parts of southeastern Texas, supported by  
both the operational autoblend and ERF consolidation precipitation forecast  
tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Mainland Alaska and  
the Aleutians, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow, while below normal  
precipitation is forecast over Southeast Alaska, under predicted ridging and  
above normal 500-hPa heights. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is  
indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF,  
Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
reasonable good agreement among ensemble means on the amplified 500-hPa height  
pattern, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation  
tools.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28 2026  
 
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 8â14 day  
period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern, with some  
reduction of mid-level height anomalies relative to the 6â10 day period across  
North America and the surrounding regions. During the week-2 period, anomalous  
ridging centered over the northwestern CONUS is forecast to slowly de-amplify.  
The center of the subtropical ridge is generally expected to remain in a  
favorable position for an enhanced monsoon, while slowly drifting southward.  
Cyclonic flow associated with a trough is forecast to persist across the  
Northeast, with the trough retrograding toward the Ohio Valley before gradually  
weakening as the period progresses. Cyclonic flow is predicted across western  
Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians. Near to modestly above normal mid-level  
heights are forecast across Hawaii.   
  
Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western and southern  
CONUS due to a continuation of anomalous ridging and enhanced southerly surface  
moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Confidence is high (greater than 50  
percent chance) for above normal temperatures over Washington.The higher  
probabilities (greater than 50 present) is also favored over parts of  
southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, and the  Florida peninsula, associated  
with above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf and  
Atlantic. Below normal temperatures are favored across most of the northcentral  
and the northeastern CONUS, as a trough retrogrades from southeastern Canada  
and weakens toward the end of the forecast period, consistent with most of the  
dynamical temperature forecast tools. Below normal temperatures are favored  
across southwestern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, underneath predicted  
cyclonic flow, while above normal temperatures are likely over parts of eastern  
Mainland Alaska and most of Southeast Alaska, under above normal 500-hPa  
heights. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to  
observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. 
 
Enhanced monsoonal moisture advection is forecast to persist during at least  
the first half of week-2, leading to increased probabilities of above normal  
precipitation across most of the western and central CONUS. Enhanced odds for  
above normal precipitation are also favored across most of the eastern quarter  
of the CONUS, related to a mid-level trough and enhanced southerly surface  
moisture flow. Below normal precipitation is favored over parts of southeastern  
Texas, supported by both the operational autoblend and ERF consolidation  
precipitation forecast tools. An active pattern is favored to continue across  
much of Alaska, due to persistent cyclonic flow. A tilt toward above normal  
precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from  
the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to   
reasonable model agreement, offset by the potential for pattern de-amplication  
and the uncertainty regarding the precipitation outlook over the Central CONUS.  
 
 
FORECASTER: Luke H 
 
Notes: 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is  
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below  
  
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer 
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. 
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more 
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being  
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") 
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of 
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will  
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally  
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry  
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a  
forecast of little or no precipitation.  
  
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as   
reference in the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
July 16. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20220717 - 20210721 - 20240727 - 20180708 - 20060728 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20220716 - 20180709 - 20240727 - 20210721 - 20220709 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 20 - 24 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N      
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    N      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    N      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 22 - 28 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
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