Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Mon January 05 2026 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 15 2026 
 
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts have come into better  
agreement on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for  
the 6-10 day period. A near equal weighted manual blend of these three ensemble  
mean forecasts indicates amplified ridging over the West Coast of the  
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and weaker troughing downstream along the Eastern  
Seaboard. Upstream, troughing extends from the Bering Strait southward to  
Hawaii. The main feature in the synoptic picture is the amplified ridge, which  
is favored to retrogress gradually from the western CONUS out into the  
northwestern Pacific Ocean during the forecast period. 
  
Below normal temperatures are favored over much of Mainland Alaska, under  
negative 500-hPa height anomalies early in the period and consistent with  
calibrated ECMWF temperature forecasts. With amplified ridging over the western  
coast of North America, above normal temperatures are favored for the  
southeastern Mainland and the Alaska Panhandle. Above normal temperatures are  
likely for much of the western CONUS as well as much of the Central and  
Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast U.S., under the influence of the  
West Coast ridge. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for much of the  
Southern Plains and the southeastern CONUS south of the Ohio River, with a  
shortwave trough favored to bring a shot of cold air into the region. Above  
normal temperatures are favored for most of Hawaii, consistent with the  
consolidation of calibrated temperature forecasts.  
  
Enhanced mid-level onshore flow into Alaska favors above normal precipitation  
for most of the state except for the North Slope, especially along the western  
and southern coasts, where probabilities exceed 50%. Meanwhile, broad and  
amplified ridging over the West Coast favors below normal precipitation across  
most of the Lower 48, with widespread probabilities of at least 50% for much of  
the western CONUS as well as the Tennessee and Middle Mississippi Valleys.  
Model guidance indicates a weak tilt toward above normal precipitation over  
northern Minnesota and North Dakota, likely due to Alberta clipper-type systems  
being a possibility, as well as along the Texas-Mexico border and the southern  
Florida Peninsula, where models indicate the potential for enhanced  
precipitation from return flow around a surface high over the southeastern U.S.  
Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, supported by the  
precipitation consolidation of calibrated GEFS and ECMWF forecasts. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Good  
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical  
tools, offset by  diverging model solutions with respect to evolution of  
synoptic features. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2026  
 
Model solutions during the week-2 period have become much more coherent over  
the last week, with the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE all depicting the same synoptic  
picture, albeit with some differences in placement and strength of key  
features. The week-2 manual blend of 500-hPa height anomalies predict a  
retrogression of the amplified ridge, from being centered over the West Coast,  
to a westward shift over the North Pacific. As the ridge shifts to the west,  
models also favor a broader and deeper trough over the eastern CONUS. Weak  
troughing continues over the Bering Sea, with negative height anomalies  
extending once again towards Hawaii. 
 
Below normal temperatures continue to be favored along the western and northern  
coast of Alaska, but increased ridging over the North Pacific pushes much of  
the eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska towards above normal temperatures.  
Above normal temperatures are favored for much of the western and central  
CONUS, downstream of the continued ridging over the North Pacific. As troughing  
broadens over the East Coast, models indicate colder air to move in from the  
north towards the end of the period, swinging from likely above normal to below  
normal temperatures. Given uncertainty in timing, near normal temperatures are  
favored for the south-central and eastern CONUS in the 8-14 day period, except  
for parts of the Northeast, where above normal temperatures are more likely.  
Above normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Hawaii in the 8-14 day  
period while near normal temperatures are favored for the northwestern islands,  
consistent with the temperature consolidation. 
  
Above normal precipitation continues to be favored over Alaska, under  
increasingly southwesterly flow in the week-2 period. Below normal  
precipitation is favored for much of the West Coast under continued ridging,  
and over much of the east-central CONUS. Above normal precipitation is again  
favored for portions of the Southern Plains and along the U.S.-Canada border  
consistent with most dynamical model forecasts and with similar reasoning as  
given for the 6-10 day period. Above normal precipitation is likely for Hawaii,  
consistent with the consolidation. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good  
agreement among forecast tools and ensemble guidance, offset by diverging model  
solutions in the second half of the forecast period. 
 
FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran 
 
Notes: 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is  
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below  
  
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer 
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. 
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more 
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being  
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") 
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of 
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will  
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally  
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry  
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a  
forecast of little or no precipitation.  
  
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as   
reference in the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
January 15. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20000119 - 20211222 - 20000114 - 20041227 - 20161230 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20000118 - 20211221 - 20000113 - 20101217 - 20101222 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 11 - 15 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     N    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B      
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   A    B      
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    A    B      
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    N    B      
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  N    B      
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    B      
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     N    B      
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 13 - 19 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    B      
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    N      
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    N    B      
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B      
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B      
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    B      
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$