Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Thu January 08 2026 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 18 2026 
 
During the 6-10 day period, the 0z ECWMF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles continue  
to favor a retrogression of ridging initially across the west coast of the  
CONUS to over the northeastern Pacific. The manual 500-hPa height blend for the  
period indicates above-normal heights increasing in magnitude from the Rockies  
to the Pacific Coast, with a +240 meter positive height anomaly center just  
offshore. Above-normal heights also extend throughout much of Southeast and  
Mainland Alaska, with closer to normal heights depicted across northwestern  
Alaska tied to troughing forecast at the outset of the period. Dynamical models  
continue to amplify troughing across the eastern CONUS, with the manual height  
blend generally depicting below-normal heights from the Great Plains to the  
East Coast. A broadening of this trough is predicted toward the end of the  
period, with increasing 500-hPa heights likely across the Southeast, and the  
strongest negative height anomalies becoming more concentrated across the  
Northern Tier. Troughing across the central Pacific favors below-normal heights  
over much of Hawaii. 
 
A pattern transition is forecast across much of the eastern CONUS throughout  
the 6-10 day period as troughing favors a trend toward colder temperatures.  
However, temperatures are forecast to be above-normal at the outset of the  
period over most areas of the CONUS, with portions of the Northern Plains and  
Rockies having daily mean positive anomalies of +15 to +25 deg F. Temperatures  
are forecast to flip to below-normal first over the interior eastern CONUS,  
Gulf Coast, and Southeast, and over the north-central CONUS by the end of the  
period. As a result of this evolution, a large area of near-normal temperatures  
is forecast for the period as a whole over much of the eastern half of the  
CONUS and Southern Plains. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are  
elevated along the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and over much of the  
western CONUS into the Northern and Central Plains where warmer temperatures  
will persist longer into the period. Chances for above-normal temperatures are  
increased across southeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska underneath ridging.  
Conversely residual troughing early in the period tilts the odds toward  
below-normal temperatures over western and northern parts of Alaska, supported  
by the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools. The consolidation reforecast supports a  
tilt toward enhanced below-normal temperature chances across the  
northwestern-most Hawaiian islands, with increasing chances for above-normal  
temperatures further south and east. 
 
Ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific continues to favor a much drier  
pattern over the western CONUS compared to late December. Uncalibrated models  
generally depict less than a quarter inch of precipitation across most of the  
West for the entire period, justifying widespread enhanced below-normal  
precipitation probabilities, increasing to above 70 percent across northwestern  
California and southwestern Oregon. Above-normal precipitation chances are  
increased across the north-central CONUS tied to developing troughing leading  
to a more active northern stream. Probabilities above 50 percent are indicated  
across parts of the Northern Plains where anomalously high precipitable water  
values are forecast tied to the initial very warm temperatures. Near- to  
below-normal precipitation remains favored across portions of the Southern  
Plains into western parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys further displaced  
from the mean flow. Deterministic model solutions continue to vary regarding  
the formation of surface low pressure in the East or off the East Coast  
resulting in only a slight tilt toward enhanced probabilities for above-normal  
precipitation across much of the East. Enhanced onshore flow favors  
above-normal precipitation across most of Alaska, with a slight tilt toward  
near-to below-normal precipitation across southern Southeast Alaska. Troughing  
and surface low pressure also strongly favor above-normal precipitation over  
Hawaii. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Good  
agreement among the dynamical models, offset by a predicted pattern transition  
east of the Rockies. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 22 2026  
 
A predicted negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO) favors a  
continuation of the 500-hPa pattern transition across North America into  
week-2. Ridging is forecast to continue to retrograde toward western Alaska  
leading to a weakening of the positive Pacific North American (+PNA) pattern  
and decreasing 500-hPa heights across the West. While amplified troughing is  
initially favored over the eastern CONUS, the largest negative 500-hPa height  
anomalies are forecast to shift from the Southeast to over the Northern Tier  
and into the West as the trough axis becomes more broad and retrogrades later  
in week-2. This also allows for some rebuilding of the Southeast ridge toward  
the end of the period, with the overall pattern showing signs of trending back  
toward that of a typical La Nina. The week-2 manual height blend indicates  
above-normal heights across the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin,  
and extending northward through Alaska. Conversely, near- to below-normal  
heights are depicted for most areas east of the Rockies, with the largest  
negative anomalies (-90 meters) over the northern Great Lakes. Below-normal  
heights remain forecast over Hawaii underneath troughing. 
 
The reforecast tools, particularly the GEFS, have trended colder compared to  
yesterday, with the uncalibrated guidance and analogs also favoring a colder  
outcome across the CONUS during week-2. As a result, increased probabilities  
for below-normal temperatures now expand across the northern CONUS and  
southward through portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley,  
and Southeast. Above-normal temperature chances remain elevated across the  
western CONUS from southern Oregon and southern Idaho southward given the  
persistence of relatively warmer conditions longer into week-2. The more  
westward orientation of the trough later in week-2 favors some moderation of  
temperatures across the Southeast, but with stronger negative temperature  
anomalies shifting into the Northwest and north-central CONUS. Ridging shifting  
further westward across Alaska and into the Bering Sea favors the development  
of more northerly mid-level flow and a potential return to a colder pattern  
across the state later in the period. For the period as a whole, weak tilts  
toward enhanced below-normal temperature chances are highlighted across western  
and northern parts of the Mainland as well as Southeast Alaska. Above-normal  
temperatures are weakly favored across parts of the Aleutians and southern  
Mainland Alaska. Near- to above-normal temperatures are forecast over Hawaii. 
  
The highest confidence in the week-2 precipitation outlook is across the  
western CONUS where ridging upstream over the Pacific favors reduced onshore  
flow and a continued dry pattern. Probabilities of below-normal precipitation  
exceed 50 percent over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California,  
although there may be an uptick in onshore flow around the end of the period as  
ridging moves farther out into the Pacific. Increasing troughing favors  
enhanced near- to above-normal precipitation across the CONUS from the Rockies  
eastward due to individual shortwave disturbances likely moving across the  
central and eastern U.S. and an overall more active weather pattern. Increased  
probabilities for above-normal precipitation remain favored across Mainland  
Alaska and the Aleutians, with below-normal precipitation odds increased over  
Southeast Alaska underneath more influence from ridging. High probabilities for  
above-normal precipitation continue across Hawaii. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good  
model agreement regarding a continued pattern transition across the CONUS  
during week-2, but with uncertainty regarding the placement of specific  
shortwave features which may influence temperature and precipitation patterns  
east of the Rockies. 
 
FORECASTER: Thomas Collow 
 
Notes: 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is  
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below  
  
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer 
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. 
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more 
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being  
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") 
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of 
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. 
  
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will  
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally  
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry  
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a  
forecast of little or no precipitation.  
  
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as   
reference in the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
January 15. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 
19890115 - 20071219 - 20020122 - 20161228 - 20151220 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 
20071218 - 20161228 - 20000118 - 20020121 - 19890116 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 14 - 18 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    N      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 16 - 22 2026 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$