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Jul 2020
BJP method updated to include explicitly defined
trend in realtime forecasts (now in beta). Option for both CBaM and CBaM with explicit trend
are now included under "Method". Original CBaM method does include trend information, but
CBaM+Trend adds 1982-2019 observed trend to BJP calibration. Also included options for tercile
and extreme (defined as 80% and 20% thresholds).
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2019
Updated BJP. Grids for which the hindcast is signifcantly
negatively correlated to observations will use a BJP climatology forecast. Prior to this update
the significant negative correlation informed the calibration, resulting in a "flipped" calibrated
forecast relative to the uncalibrated forecast (e.g., an uncalibrated forecast may predict below normal
temperatures while its calibrated counterpart predicts above normal temperatures).
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May 2018
Updatd merging. Merged NMME forecasts are now obtained
by taking a BMA weighted average of the NMME calibrated and NMME bridged forecast, where the NMME
calibrated and NMME bridged forecasts are calculated as the equal-weighted mean of the 7 member model
calibrated and bridged forecasts, respectively.
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October 2017
Began producing CBaM forecasts on an experimental basis.