These experimental forecast maps indicate the probability that:
the NOAA's Heat Index exceeds the 80th and 90th percentile during at least 2 and 3 consecutive days.
the maximum temperature exceeds the 80th and 90th percentile during at least 2 and 3 consecutive days.
Heat wave based on HI
Heat Index ≥ 80th percentile
Heat Index ≥ 90th percentile
≥ 2 consecutive days
≥ 3 consecutive days
Heat wave based on Tmax
Tmax ≥ 80th percentile
Tmax ≥ 90th percentile
≥ 2 consecutive days
≥ 3 consecutive days
WEEK-3/4
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
NMME MONTHLY FORECASTS
Sea Surface Temperature
Anomalies
Standard Anomalies
Skill Masked Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps
3-Category Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean
Precipitation
Anomalies
Standard Anomalies
Skill Masked Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps
3-Category Probabilities
The Caribbean, Central America and Mexico
2m air temperature
Anomalies
Standard Anomalies
Skill Masked Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps
3-Category Probabilities
The Caribbean, Central America and Mexico
NMME SEASONAL FORECASTS
Sea Surface Temperature
Anomalies
Standard Anomalies
Skill Masked Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps
3-Category Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean
Precipitation
Anomalies
Standard Anomalies
Skill Masked Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps
3-Category Probabilities
The Caribbean, Central America and Mexico
2m air temperature
Anomalies
Standard Anomalies
Skill Masked Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps
3-Category Probabilities
The Caribbean, Central America and Mexico
NMME DOWNSCALED SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR CENTRAL AMERICA
The Climate Prediction Center produces NMME downscaled seasonal precipitation forecasts (0-lead, 1-month lead-time, and 2-month lead-time)
for Central America every month.
Archives of the downscaled precipitation forecasts can be accessed here.
MONTHLY FORECAST ASSESSMENT
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
REGIONAL HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
The Climate Prediction Center produces hazards outlooks for Central America and the Hispaniola on a weekly basis.
The hazards outlooks are based on a wide range of products, including rain gauge data and satellite rainfall estimates,
subseasonal and seasonal rainfall and surface temperature forecasts as well as crop and vegetation information.
Monthly and seasonal forecast and hindcast data are provided in the GrADS readable format (binary format) and in the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) format (ASCII text) which can
be used as input in the IRI/CPT software for further tailoring of the climate products.
The figures below provides the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-1 probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.
The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.
Time series for the week-1 precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
The figures below provides the skill maps and the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.
Skill maps for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
Precipitation > 25 mm
Precipitation > 50 mm
Precipitation > 75 mm
Precipitation > 100 mm
Time series for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-1 FORECASTS
The figures below provides the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-1 probabilistic 2m air temperature forecasts for the past 30 days.
The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.
Time series for the week-1 2m air temperature forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-1 FORECASTS
The figures below provides the time series of the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for the week-1 heat wave forecasts for the past 30 days.
The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.
Heat wave
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-2 FORECASTS
The figures below provides the time series of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-2 probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.
The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.
Time series for the week-2 precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
The figures below provides the skill maps and the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.
Skill maps for the week-2 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
Precipitation > 25 mm
Precipitation > 50 mm
Precipitation > 75 mm
Precipitation > 100 mm
Time series for the week-2 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-2 FORECASTS
The figures below provides the time series of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-2 probabilistic 2m air temperature forecasts for the past 30 days.
The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.
Time series for the week-2 2m air temperature forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-2 FORECASTS
The figures below provides the time series of the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for the week-2 heat wave forecasts for the past 30 days.
The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.
Heat wave
Heidke Skill Score (HSS)
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
VERIFICATIONS FOR MONTHLY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS
This table provides the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) maps for monthly precipitation and 2m air temperature anomaly forecasts,
according to the month of initial conditions.
HSS and RPSS are calculated over the period 2012-2020.
Precipitation
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
HSS
RPSS
Temperature
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
HSS
RPSS
VERIFICATIONS FOR SEASONAL DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS
This table provides the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) maps for monthly precipitation and 2m air temperature anomaly forecasts,
according to the month of initial conditions.
HSS and RPSS are calculated over the period 2012-2020.
www.nws.noaa.gov
