NOAA 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The updated 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America.

Interpretation of NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook:
This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the ongoing hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. And note that years with similar activity can have different societal impacts.

Preparedness:
Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through Ready.gov (English) and www.listo.gov (Spanish), the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites.

It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity for the season. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions:
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are usually only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.

Nature of this outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity:
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Years with similar levels of activity can have dramatically different impacts.

This outlook is based on analyses of 1) predictions of large-scale factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) seasonal forecast models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. The outlook also considers the uncertainties inherent in such outlooks.

Sources of uncertainty in the seasonal outlooks:

1. Predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, which include El Niño and La Niña events and ENSO-neutral and their impacts on North Atlantic basin hurricane activity, is an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill, but that skill increases during the summer.
2. Many combinations of named storms (tropical and subtropical storms), hurricanes, and major hurricanes can occur for the same general set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given signal may be associated with several shorter-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
3. There are uncertainties associated with the model predictions of various factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic region, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vertical wind shear, moisture, and atmospheric stability for August-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season.
4. Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.

a. Predicted Activity

NOAA's updated outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, along with a 35% chance for a near-normal season and a 15% chance for a below-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information.

The updated 2025 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2025 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th:

• 13-18 Named Storms, which includes the 4 named storms recorded thus far.
• 5-9 Hurricanes
• 2-5 Major Hurricanes
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 90-160% of the median, including the 3% recorded thus far.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered near to slightly above the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during August-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season. The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th.

This August update is just slightly lower than the May outlook (13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and 95-180% of median ACE).

b. Outlook Reasoning

1. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and weaker trade winds in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), along with slightly-below-normal vertical wind shear, and a conducive West African monsoon are likely this year during ASO. Those are the same general set of conditions that have produced the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes which began in 1995 and are likely to continue in 2025. The oceanic component of these conditions is often referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while the ocean/atmosphere combined system is sometimes referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). The MDR spans the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Current SSTs in the MDR are similar to those normally observed in early September (the peak of MDR SSTs is near October 1st), with temperatures about 0.5°C above normal. Trade winds are weaker than normal which contributes to lower vertical wind shear, though the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean has been above normal through July. The upper-level circulation with the West African Monsoon indicates weak outflow, but the mid- and low-level structure indicate a robust monsoon with the intertropical front north of climatology and Sahel rainfall in June being above normal.


2. ENSO-neutral conditions are likely through the hurricane season. During the peak months (ASO), the odds are highest for ENSO-neutral (56%), with moderate probabilities for La Niña (38%), and very low chances of an El Niño event (6%) occurring. During a high-activity era, ENSO-neutral is typically associated with above-average levels of hurricane activity. La Niña events tend to reinforce those high-activity era conditions and further increase the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, while inactive seasons are typically associated with El Niño events.

DISCUSSION

The updated 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 13-18 named storms, of which 5-9 are expected to become hurricanes, and 2-5 of those are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered near to just above the 1991-2020 period averages of about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The updated 2025 outlook for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index indicates a 70% chance that the seasonal ACE range will be 90-160% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value between 75.4% and 130% of the 1951-2020 median indicates a near-normal season. Values above (below) this range are associated with an above-normal (below-normal) season. The 2025 predicted ACE range is centered just below the threshold that delineates near- and above-normal seasons.

The 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season could be the ninth out of the last 11 with above-average activity. Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 21 of 30 (about 70%) seasons have had above-normal activity, and only 5 (17%) and 4 (13%) have had near- and below-normal activity, respectively, based on the 1951-2020 climatology. Also, 10 (almost half) of the above-normal years (thus 33% of the 30 years) have been extremely active (i.e. hyperactive, ≥165% of the median ACE).

Predictions of the location, number, timing, and intensity of hurricane landfalls are ultimately related to the daily weather patterns which determine storm genesis locations and steering patterns. These patterns are not predictable weeks or months in advance. As a result, it is not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes in a seasonal outlook, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this season. Note that years with similar overall levels of activity may have very different societal impacts.

2. Science behind the Outlook

NOAA’s North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks are based on predictions of the main atmospheric and oceanic factors, and their associated conditions known to influence seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. These predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Seas5 model. ENSO forecasts are also provided from the NMME dynamical models contained in the suite of Niño 3.4 SST forecasts, which is compiled by NOAA’s CPC. NOAA’s AOML continues to contribute and refine a statistical-dynamical hybrid forecast system, based on SSTs in the NMME.

NOAA’s updated 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook reflects the expectation of the following atmospheric and oceanic factors during August-October (ASO):

1. The dominant factor this season is expected to be the continuation of the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, which began in 1995 in association with a transition to the warm phase of the AMO. The recently observed and predicted atmospheric conditions for ASO 2025 reflect the warm AMO phase with several factors conducive for higher levels of activity such as weaker trade winds and warmer SSTs across much of the MDR, a more conducive African easterly jet, below-normal vertical wind shear, and a conducive structure of the West African monsoon. When the oceanic and atmospheric conditions are considered as a whole, the variability is being more commonly referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in recent literature.
   
   
   1. Predicted conditions within the MDR
      The area average SSTs in the MDR and the extratropical North Atlantic regions are both currently warmer than normal, but not at the record high levels as seen for the same period in 2024. Trade winds are slightly weaker than average. Weekly average SSTs in the MDR are currently about 0.5°C above normal, with the June 2025 monthly average 0.11°C above normal, whereas June 2024 was 1.31°C above normal. This means that SSTs during July warmed relative to June at a faster rate than climatology. This warming is likely related to the weak trade winds, which dropped faster than climatology during July over the MDR.
      
      Both the CFS and NMME models predict above-average SSTs during ASO across much of the MDR, though there are predicted pockets of near-normal and even below-normal SSTs across the Caribbean. Normal SSTs in the Caribbean are high enough to support tropical storm development, so slight cooling would not prevent development. Among the NMME models used in the hybrid outlook, the predicted values of MDR SST anomalies are tightly clustered, ranging from +0.14 °C to +0.26 °C, with the multi-model ensemble spatial average being +0.23 °C. Even though most models tend to have only modest skill in predicting the strength of the Atlantic SST anomalies this far in advance, the current model predictions are consistent with the ongoing warm phase of the AMV. SST anomalies across the North Atlantic basin are currently generally above normal and predicted to at least through ASO.
      
      Most of the NMME models and the operational CFS predict that the ASO 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear will likely be weaker than normal across most of the MDR, with some models maintaining an area of higher wind shear over the Caribbean (western MDR). Vertical wind shear forecasts this year for ASO are much closer to normal than the ASO forecasts made at this time in 2024 but are similar to those in 2023. The continued presence of a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the western North Atlantic is likely contributing to the continued high vertical wind shear over the Caribbean. Predicting TUTT activity on seasonal time scales is an ongoing research activity. Vertical wind shear is one of the most important factors determining the level of seasonal hurricane activity with lower- (higher-) than-normal vertical wind shear associated with higher (lower) amounts of activity.
      
      Sea-level pressures have been above normal over most of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the past 45 days. Traditionally this is associated with lower levels of tropical activity. Some models have the above-normal sea-level pressures continuing, which would be contrary to the SST signals. The upper-level velocity potential during the last 30-days is showing generally subsident conditions over much of the Atlantic, though that signal can change rapidly and has weakened even during the last week. It remains to be seen whether this weakening is more related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation or longer-term base state changes.
      
      
   2. Role of the West African Monsoon
      The analyses of two inter-related atmospheric features, which are also related to the warm phase of the AMO/AMV are anomalous winds at lower-to-mid-levels (850-hPa, 700-hPa, and 600-hPa) across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic and the strength of the West African monsoon system. The 850-hPa winds show westerly anomalies, indicative of weaker trade winds and enhanced low-level flow into the West African monsoon. The outflow from the West African monsoon, as analyzed by 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly and divergent wind, is showing a weak upper-level circulation. The latest analysis of the axis of heaviest rain, low-level winds, and highest moisture gradient indicates that the West African Monsoon is largely north of its climatological position for late July, indicating a stronger than normal monsoon. Sahel average rainfall during June was above normal. The African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is weaker over central Africa but near average over western Africa, and is moving close to the climatological position near 15°N. The circulation of the West African Monsoon is forecast to be more supportive of tropical storm and hurricane development as the forecast configuration would allow for more and stronger African Easterly Waves to move over warmer waters and into areas of low vertical wind shear. Should the West African Monsoon be too intense and shifted too far northward, this could result in disturbances entering the Atlantic over SSTs that are prohibitively cold for tropical cyclogenesis while also seeing increased chances for Saharan Air Layer outbreaks that would further inhibit convective development.
      
   
   
   
2. Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions are in place. The most recent NOAA ENSO probability forecast 56% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through ASO, the peak months of the hurricane season, with a 38% chance that conditions could shift to La Niña during the peak months. The ENSO outlook this year shows lower confidence than at the same point in 2024. Forecasts for ENSO-neutral typically have lower skill than forecasts of El Niño or La Niña events.
   
   The weekly SSTs are currently slightly below average across much of the central equatorial Pacific but are above normal east of 120W. The weekly SST index for the Niño 3.4 region is -0.3 °C. The Niño 3.4 index has shown no significant trend since March of 2025. The wind and outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the central Pacific are also reflecting ENSO-neutral, with no strong anomalies over the central Pacific. SST values in the Niño 3.4 region, when taken relative to the global tropics, have been cooler than normal, at -0.33°C.
   
   Looking forward, model-predicted SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region generally indicate ENSO-neutral conditions throughout the hurricane season. The dynamical model average indicates ENSO-neutral through autumn of 2025, though there are modest odds for Niño 3.4 SSTs to drop below the La Niña threshold later in the season. During ASO, the CFS and the NMME are predicting ENSO-neutral. The CFS and NMME also predict below-normal vertical wind shear over the MDR. This is likely associated with the model predictions of high-activity era conditions and a non-interfering ENSO-neutral.
   
   Therefore, the current hurricane season outlook reflects the expectation that the ENSO-neutral conditions will not interfere with the ongoing conducive set of conditions associated with the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes (discussed below). Note that if a La Niña event occurs, it would typically reinforce the high-activity era conditions.
   
   For ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the year following a first-year La Niña winter, the averages for named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE are 15, 8, 4, and 140, respectively. Those values are very close to the mid-points of the predicted ranges for 2025, and are all above the average values for 1991-2020 which covers most of the high activity era. The average ACE value during years following La Niña conditions is 140, which is above the threshold for an above-normal season.
   



3. Factors contributing to uncertainty in the 2025 outlook
   
   
   1. ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome during ASO, but during SON the odds for ENSO-neutral and La Niña are forecasted to be about even. Should a La Niña event emerge in ASO or SON, total activity could be at or near the upper end of the forecast ranges.
   2. Additionally, a large, northward displacement of the West African Monsoon was thought to be a contributing factor to the mid-peak-season lull during 2024, and such displacement could possibly occur this year. Should that northward displacement take place for a portion of ASO and combine with other intraseasonal variability limiting activity later in the season, total activity could be at or near the lower end of the forecast ranges.
   3. SSTs in the Atlantic are warmer than normal, but not near record values as was observed during 2023 and 2024, so that forcing could be weaker.
   4. Early-season pressure and shear patterns in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea have not been conducive for storm development compared to climatology. If these patterns persist, they could dampen activity and result in activity nearer the lower end of the forecast ranges.

• Matt Rosencrans, Physical Scientist; Matthew.Rosencrans{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hui Wang, Meteorologist; Hui.Wang{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Daniel Harnos, Meteorologist; Daniel.Harnos{at}noaa.gov

• Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Chris Landsea, Branch Chief; Chris.Landsea{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch{at}noaa.gov

• Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov
• Dr. Hosmay Lopez, Oceanographer; Hosmay.Lopez{at}noaa.gov