Latest Monthly Assessment - Drought persisted or intensified across the South-Central States and Lower Mississippi Valley the past few weeks under a persistent dome of mid-level high pressure. Dallas, TX reported only 0.01 inch of rainfall July 16 - September 29, compared to a normal approaching 6 inches. Oklahoma City typically receives close to 9 inches of rain during this period, but recorded just 0.4 in 2026. Drought conditions were exacerbated by hot weather from about mid-summer through most of September. Numerous locations across the south-central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley averaged 5 to 10 deg F above normal during August, then 8 to 12 deg F above normal during September 1-29. The average daily high temperature in Wichita Falls, TX exceeded 100 deg F in September, and Oklahoma City, OK topped 100 deg F on 39 of 48 days from August 4 - September 19. At times, mid-level high pressure extended eastward into the Southeast, resulting in subnormal precipitation and above-normal temperatures that allowed drought to persist or slightly intensify across the region. Other areas where above-normal temperatures and unusually light precipitation resulted in persisting or intensifying drought include parts of the Great Basin, central and northern New England, and a swath from the east-central Dakotas through the northern Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, somewhat lower than normal precipitation kept moderate drought unchanged in Southeast Alaska, and the quiet tropical season in the Atlantic Basin helped keep rainfall across the Virgin Islands unusually low, allowing drought to persist or intensify. Exceptional drought (D4) now covers St. Thomas, with extreme drought (D3) assessed on St. Croix and St. John.



Meanwhile, a robust monsoon abetted repeated incursions of tropical moisture into the Four Corners region, resulting in areas of improvement. To the north, this moisture interacted with a persistent, wavering frontal boundary north of the mid-level ridge, bringing unusually heavy precipitation and significant drought improvement to many areas from the Pacific Northwest through the Rockies, most of the northern and central Plains, portions of the Upper Midwest, and the central and southern reaches of the Great Lakes region. Des Moines recorded 13.77 inches of rain September 1-29, making this their wettest month since September 1914 and their third-wettest month since records began in 1878. To the south, tropical moisture periodically interacted with weak frontal boundaries across Florida, engendering areas of drought improvement there. Drought improvement was also common from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, continuing the trend observed in recent months. Farther south, strong tropical waves finally brought heavy rainfall and some improvement in the entrenched drought across most of Puerto Rico. San Juan reported 6.81 inches of rain September 1-29, compared to just 3.98 inches during June-August (less than 25 percent of normal).



Through the end of October, existing drought is expected to improve across a large part of the contiguous U.S., specifically from the Southwest through the southern half of the High Plains, most of the Great Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Eastern Seaboard. Much of this improvement is driven by heavy to excessive rainfall from late September through the first week of October. Similarly, drought is expected to ease or end across northeastern and parts of southwestern Puerto Rico due primarily to rainfall expected through the first week of October. Scattered showers and increased tropical convection may also improve D4 conditions on St. John, although D3 conditions across St. Croix and St. John are expected to continue. Meanwhile, drought is absent from Hawaii and is unlikely to develop during October. The state has been periodically inundated over the past few months, largely due to the influence of increased tropical cyclone activity in the eastern and central North Pacific, which is expected to continue.



In contrast, drought is expected to persist or possibly worsen from the southeastern California deserts northward and northeastward through the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, central and northern Rockies, the northern High Plains, and from the northern Great Lakes region into the adjacent upper Mississippi Valley. In these areas, near or below normal precipitation is expected during October. Meanwhile, the expected continuation of the quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season favors drought persistence across the coastal southern and the central sections of Puerto Rico as well as St Thomas and St Croix, though this is a low confidence forecast.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion