Latest Monthly Assessment - Hot, dry weather during April resulted in considerable drought expansion and intensification across the lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions, with significant impacts to soil moisture content, streamflows, and lake and reservoir levels that will take sustained heavy precipitation to overcome. Drought also expanded across the High Plains and portions of the West, where mountain snow cover is very meager. In contrast, heavy precipitation eased drought conditions across portions of Texas, eastern Oklahoma, the upper-Midwest, Corn Belt, and northern New England. May is a crucial month for moisture recharge across many parts of the Nation, as frontal-driven precipitation gives way to the summertime convective regime across the East, and Gulf moisture can penetrate far northward along the Plains. Across the West, a drier warm season climatology means an increasing dependence on snowmelt for reservoir recharge, which will become increasingly problematic later into the summer months.



A cool, unsettled pattern is favored through the first half of May across the northeastern quadrant of the contiguous US. While precipitation may be sufficient to further ease drought conditions across Maine, absent a clearer signal for heavy precipitation, long term drought conditions are likely to persist across much of the Northeast. Extremely low soil moisture content across the Southeast may impact convective formation, especially across portions of Georgia and northern Florida, but a wetter signal in the guidance, including an early month storm system, should bring some relief to eastern Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley, and western Alabama. Across Florida, the seabreeze-driven convective season typically begins in late May, which may begin chipping away at protracted drought conditions across southern Florida before the end of the month. Across the western half of the CONUS, drought persistence is the most likely outcome. Some drought development is favored for the Northwest, where impacts are already beginning to occur and the May outlook favors below-normal precipitation. Across California and the Great Basin, little change in the drought depiction is forecast, as current snowmelt is adequate to maintain reservoir and stream levels. However, a lack of recharge beyond May may result in deterioration after this outlook period, as noted in the CPC seasonal drought outlook.



No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop across Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands. A small area of moderate drought remains in Hawaii's Big Island, with continued drought reduction forecast.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: May 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion