Latest Monthly Assessment - Drought persistence and/or development is expected over many areas west of the Continental Divide. This is climatologically the dry season for this part of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The exception is over the Southwest, where the latest model guidance forecasts monsoonal moisture to stream farther north than usual across Arizona, and parts of Utah and Nevada, which is typical of El Niño summer precipitation patterns.



Over the central third of the CONUS, the majority of drought areas already in place are expected to persist through July, with drought development introduced across eastern portions of Texas and parts of anomalous dry areas in eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Over the Midwest, significant precipitation predicted within the first half of July is expected to bring about some improvement and/or removal of drought. However, the second half of the month looks much drier for this area.



The drought outlook for the eastern third of the CONUS is uncertain, despite a weak but long-lasting mid-level trough predicted over the East. While improvement/removal is favored for south-central portions of the Appalachians, Florida and parts of the Southeast coast, and central and northern New England, drought persistence is considered to be more likely for remaining drought areas of the East, which encompass the region from southern New England southwestward across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of North Carolina. Drought persistence is considered more likely due to the greater precipitation deficits throughout this region that have been mounting for some time, and whatever precipitation falls in July is not expected to result in a significant one-category or more improvement in the U.S. Drought Monitor. The uncertainty in the precipitation outlook is clearly captured in CPC's outlook featuring Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal precipitation.



No drought is anticipated in Alaska or Hawaii. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are favored to see persistence of drought conditions, which is often the case during El Niño summers. This is attributed to, at least in part, to an increase of deep westerly wind shear across the Caribbean and surrounding Gulf and Atlantic, leading to fewer (and usually less intense) tropical cyclones.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion