Latest Monthly Assessment - Major drought improvement, related to the historically strong El Niño, is well underway across the Southwest. Forecast confidence is high that the decrease in drought coverage and intensity continues through November for this region. Heavy precipitation at the beginning of November supports improvement across parts of the Dakotas and the Upper Mississippi Valley. Drought improvement and removal are also forecast across the Southern Great Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast based on the updated November Outlook favoring above-normal precipitation. Little to no change in drought is expected for the long-term drought areas in the Mid-Atlantic, Central Appalachians, and Northeast. A drier climatology favors no change in drought across the Northern to Central High Plains. Conversely, the wet November climatology along with an increasing chance of above-normal precipitation by the second week of November supports improvement and removal to the west of the Cascades in the Pacific Northwest. Farther to the east, broad-scale no change in drought is favored for the Northern to Central Rockies.



Alaska and Hawaii are likely to remain drought-free through the end of November. Continued drought improvement is forecast for Puerto Rico, while drought unchanged is more likely for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion