Latest Monthly Assessment - More than 60 percent of the continental United States was in drought on the May 26 Drought Monitor (D1-D4). This coverage ranks 33rd highest of 1,378 weeks on record (since 2000) even though it is a small decline (about one percent) over the past month. Abundant precipitation into early June should be sufficient to bring drought improvement or removal to areas in and near north-central Montana, north-central Arkansas, and parts of central New England. In addition, improvement or removal is forecast for the central and southwestern Plains, and also much of the Southeast. The official Monthly Precipitation Outlook shows enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation in these areas.



Meanwhile, existing drought is expected to persist and may worsen in the Northwest, most of the Rockies, the central and northwestern Plains, the southeastern Plains, parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the Mid-Atlantic region, and most of the Northeast. Drought development is forecast in and near many areas where abnormal dryness (D0) coincide with an official June Outlook favoring subnormal precipitation across the Northwest, Intermountain West, southwestern Great Lakes, and the adjacent Upper Mississippi Valley.



As of late May, D0 (abnormally dry) conditions cover the U.S. Virgin Islands, a few scattered patches near parts of the Puerto Rican coast, and portions of Maui and the Big Island in Hawaii. A few tools favor below-normal June precipitation across the Caribbean, but there is not enough forecast confidence there to support any forecast of drought development. Meanwhile, no drought development is expected across Hawaii since the June Outlook favors wetter than normal conditions across the island chain. Farther north, precipitation since late April has been sufficient to remove the few areas of abnormal dryness (D0) across Alaska, and making drought development by the end of June unlikely.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion