Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for April, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on March 24, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



A pattern change will be ongoing heading into April as mid-level low pressure and enhanced onshore flow bring rain and high-elevation snow to the northern half of the West. Despite this wet start to the month, persistence is forecast for ongoing drought areas given the very low snowpack and climatology becomes increasingly drier by late April. The unusually warm March led to an early and rapid melt off of an already low snowpack heading into the early spring. As of the end of March, snow water equivalent was below 25 percent of normal throughout the Southwest, Great Basin, Oregon, and California. The wet start to April may delay any widespread development until later in the spring when water demand increases. Development is most likely in parts of Arizona and Nevada that is predicted to miss out on any precipitation at the beginning of the month along with: above-normal temperatures favored during April, and April is a drier time of year.



Forecast confidence for the West Region is moderate.



The predicted longwave pattern, with a mean 500-hPa trough over the West, favors frequent leeside cyclogenesis during early to mid-April. There is likely to be a sharp gradient between little to no rainfall and heavy rainfall from the High Plains to eastern Kansas, respectively. During the first week of April, the Weather Prediction Center calls for 1 to 3 inches of precipitation for the eastern third of Kansas. The MDO reflects this west-to-east precipitation gradient with development forecast for eastern Colorado and western Kansas and improvement expected farther to the east. Although the updated April outlook leans slightly towards the wet side for eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota, broad-scale persistence is most likely through the end of the month.



An unusually warm March led to an early and rapid snowmelt across Colorado where snow water equivalent (SWE) is running below 40 percent of normal heading into April. Given this low snowpack, drought persistence is forecast. A wetter and cooler pattern at least briefly early in April precludes going with any development across northwestern Wyoming.



Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is moderate.



Drought rapidly intensified across the Southern Great Plains during later winter and early spring. The predicted longwave pattern, with a mean 500-hPa trough over the West, favors frequent leeside cyclogenesis during early to mid-April. There is likely to be a sharp gradient between little to no rainfall and heavy rainfall from the High Plains to eastern Oklahoma and central to northeastern Texas. During the first week of April, the Weather Prediction Center calls for 1 to 3 inches, locally more, of precipitation for central to eastern portions of both Oklahoma and Texas. Based on this heavy precipitation early in the month and an increased chance for additional beneficial precipitation during mid-April, improvement and removal are most likely for the eastern half of Oklahoma and central to northeastern Texas. Also, improvement and removal are more likely in these short-term drought areas. Although the updated April outlook depicts elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for portions of western Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, April climatology is lower than areas farther to the north and east. Therefore, this drier climatology supports broad-scale persistence. Closer to the Texas Gulf Coast, persistence is also expected as precipitation amounts are expected to be lower compared to central and northeastern Texas.



Improvement and removal are favored for western to central Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana where the Weather Prediction Center calls for near or greater than 1.5 inches of precipitation during the first week of April. In addition, the 8-14 day outlook leans towards the wetter side across those areas. For the remainder of Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, lower precipitation amounts to begin the month and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation in the updated April outlook support persistence.



Forecast confidence for the South is moderate.



Above-normal precipitation from late February into March, a typical La Niña response, brought improving drought conditions throughout the Midwest. Heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) is forecast for the Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley during the first week of April. With near to above-normal precipitation expected during the remainder of the month, improvement and removal are likely for nearly all of the remaining drought areas. This is consistent with the updated April precipitation outlook having enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities.



Forecast confidence for the Midwest Region is high.



Due to a strong subtropical ridge, the heaviest precipitation is forecast to remain west of the Southern Appalachians through at least the first week of April. Since the updated April outlook either favors below-normal precipitation or has equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation, persistence is likely. In addition, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast which further supports persistence as water demand increases. The most likely area for development is east-central Georgia and parts of South Carolina.



It should be noted that forecast confidence remains low in the updated seasonal drought outlook, valid through the end of June. Since the April-May-June outlook (released on March 19) favored above-normal precipitation, improving drought remains forecast but is now limited to generally the Coastal Plain of the Southeast and Florida where the climatology is wetter during late May into June.



Forecast confidence for the Southeast Region is moderate.



Since late February, drought coverage has decreased across the Northeast. Additional drought removal or improvement is forecast in parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey where 30-day precipitation has averaged above-normal and the updated April outlook favors above-normal precipitation. Based on the Weather Prediction Center 7-day outlook calling for 1 to 3 inches of precipitation for northern New England and elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities in the updated April outlook, improvement and removal are also forecast for northeastern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine. Although the updated April outlook favors above-normal precipitation in southern New England, lower precipitation amounts are expected during the first week of April and broad-scale persistence is more likely for the long-term drought of eastern Maine, southeastern New Hampshire, and eastern Massachusetts.



Forecast confidence for the Northeast Region is moderate.



A couple of abnormal dryness areas are designated for portions of Alaska according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24. Since the updated April outlook either leans towards wet or has equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation, development is not expected through the end of April. However, the abnormal dryness areas will be closely monitored for drought development during the late spring and early summer.



Forecast confidence for Alaska is high.



After the multiple Kona Lows and flooding rainfall, drought was only designated for a small part of the Big Island according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on March 24. Removal is forecast with a wetter-than-normal pattern continuing through mid-April.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high.



Since the late winter was unusually wet, no development is expected for Puerto Rico through April.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is high.



Since the late winter was unusually wet, no development is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands through April.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is high.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: April 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT