Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for October, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for October, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on September 22, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



The West Region is typically in a transitional regime during October. The wet season is in the process of getting underway along the West Coast States while the wetter summer regime in eastern parts of the Region is letting up. As a result, October tends to be slightly drier than other months in most areas, especially across most of California and southern Arizona, where 2 to 7 percent of annual precipitation is typically recorded. The northern tier of the Region and the central Rockies are closer to neutral relative to other months, receiving 5 to 12 percent of their annual amounts during the month. This year, a late-season monsoonal incursion of tropical moisture into the Southwest and southern Rockies is bringing heavy rain and areas of flooding through the first week of October, and the official monthly outlook favors above-normal rainfall across southern New Mexico and Arizona for the month as a whole. Drought improvement or removal (depending on initial intensity) is the only reasonable forecast across the southern half of the Four Corners. Farther north and west, drought persistence is forecast, largely because the October outlook favors subnormal precipitation and above-normal temperatures in most locations, with seasonably low rainfall amounts forecast in southern California.



Forecast confidence in the West Region is high.



Most of the High Plains Region typically records 3 to 7 percent of their annual precipitation during October, so the month leans to the dry side relative to other months. Subnormal October precipitation is favored in the official outlook from northern Colorado and central Nebraska northward, with no tilt of the odds toward dryness nor wetness depicted elsewhere. Despite the dry monthly forecast, drought improvement or removal is anticipated over the eastern half of the Great Plains and the southern tier of the region due to expected heavy precipitation and localized flooding during late September and early October. Areas farther north and west are expecting less precipitation during this period, so the dry-leaning forecast for October as a whole supports a persistence forecast



Forecast confidence in the High Plains Region is moderate to high.



Drought has intensified over the past few months in much of the South Region, especially under the markedly hot and dry conditions that have dominated the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. However, heavy to excessive rainfall into the first week of October is expected to dramatically reverse this trend. Amarillo, TX recorded 6.12 inches of precipitation during September 24-29 (6 days) following a total of 6.06 inches during March 6 - September 23 (202 days), and at least a few inches of rain are expected farther east as the mid-level ridge continues to break down. The official October outlook favors above-normal amounts across most of the Region outside portions of the northern tier, with the highest odds (over 60 percent) stretching from central Texas southward to the Rio Grande and eastward through the southern half of Louisiana. As a result, drought improvement or removal is expected in all current areas of drought across the South Region due to both the short-term and monthly forecasts.



Forecast confidence is high in most of the South Region, but moderate over much of Tennessee, where short-lived intensification is anticipated before heavier rains move in from the west.



Drought is restricted to northern and southwestern portions of the Midwest Region. Through the first few days of October, heavy to locally excessive rains are forecast from the central Great Lakes and portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley southward. The official October outlook favors neither unusual heavy or light precipitation in most locations, but deficient October precipitation is favored over the western half of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley. As a result, heavy short-term rainfall supports a forecast of drought improvement or removal from the central Great Lakes southward and in portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley where significant amounts are anticipated into the first few days of October. Elsewhere, short-term totals are not expected to be sufficient for any improvement, especially in areas where the October forecast favors drier than normal conditions.



Forecast confidence in the Midwest Region is moderate.



Heavy to excessive rainfall is forecast through the first week of October across areas from southern Virginia southward, and the monthly outlook favors surplus precipitation from most of North Carolina southward and southwestward through the rest of the Region. A forecast of drought improvement or removal is the only reasonable forecast for areas south of Virginia. In the upper reaches of the Southeast Region, near to above normal amounts are expected through the first two weeks of October, and forecast tools favor neither unusually high nor low precipitation amounts. Amounts are expected to be sufficient for improvement or removal, though with less confidence than farther south.



Forecast Confidence in the Southeast Region is high except in northernmost sections, where confidence is medium.



In the Northeast Region, drought coverage has been slowly declining over the past several months. Light to moderate precipitation is anticipated through the first week of October, and the forecast for the second week favors above-normal totals across New England. The forecast uncertainty reduces confidence in the drought outlook, but with no forecast on any time frame leaning toward subnormal precipitation totals, drought improvement or removal is forecast by the end of October. Also, the October forecast leaning toward near- or below-normal temperatures should allow for the typical seasonal reduction in human and environmental water demand.



Forecast confidence in the Northeast Region is low.



Drought is limited to a small area in far Southeast Alaska, where it has been assessed for a few months. Conditions have changed little during this period, keeping conditions from intensifying beyond moderate drought (D1). October is one of the wettest months of the year in Southeast Alaska, with drought-affected areas typically recording 10 to 25 inches of precipitation, and locally more. In addition, the official October monthly outlook favors above-normal totals, so removal of D1 is the only reasonable forecast for this region. Elsewhere, small short-lived areas of drought may develop during the month, but are not expected to remain until the end of the month.



Forecast confidence in Alaska is high in the Southeast and moderate elsewhere.



Abundant precipitation has fallen on most of Hawaii during the past few months, enhanced occasionally by the influence of tropical systems near the island chain. During July-September, 50 to 90 inches of rain have been measured across most of the northeastern tier of the Big Island, and totals of 1 to 4 feet were common across other areas outside leeward areas frequently shadowed from heavier rainfall by nearby higher terrain. The active tropical season in the eastern and central North Pacific is expected to continue, potentially enhancing precipitation totals at times. But even if no more tropical systems impact Hawaii, heavier than normal precipitation is favored over the next few months, which is common during ENSO episodes. Therefore, no drought development is anticipated.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high.



Precipitation increased to near normal during September, a sharp contrast from conditions during the prior 3 to 5 months. Increased tropical wave activity may bring moderate to heavy rains to some areas at times, although specific amounts and locations are uncertain, and likely won't affect the entire Commonwealth. As October continues, the increase in tropical convection is expected to continue, but whether this results in enough rain anywhere to improve drought any further is questionable. The outlook favoring improvement or removal in northeastern and upper southwestern sections of Puerto Rico is based on where the heaviest late September and early October rain looks to be heaviest. Persistence is forecast elsewhere, although chances for improvement are a bit better than in recent months.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is moderate over northeastern and southwestern sections of the Commonwealth, and low elsewhere.



Drought has steadily intensified across the Virgin Islands over the past several months, with D4 (exceptional drought) currently assessed for St. Thomas, and D3 (extreme drought) across St. Croix and St. Thomas. Scattered showers are expected across the islands through at least the first week of October. Conditions are highly uncertain later in the month, but there has been an uptick in tropical convection lately, increasing the potential for moderate to heavy rain at times. Further details, such as precipitation amounts and locations, are highly uncertain due to the spotty and localized nature common to tropical convection. In sum, it seems more likely than not that enough rain will fall on St. Thomas to bring the designation down from the most intense classification to D3, but improvements to the entrenched D3 conditions elsewhere are less likely since somewhat heavier precipitation amounts would be required.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is low.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT