Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for June, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for June, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on May 26, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions. ENSO conditions are developing and likely will be in place by late summer or early autumn, but this is not expected to significantly influence conditions during June.



Drought (D1-D4) covers almost 75 percent of the West Region, up from about 70 percent at the end of April, with an additional 15 percent of the Region in abnormal dryness (D0). Climatologically, June is a very dry month in most of California and the Southwest, typically providing less than two percent of yearly precipitation totals. Seasonality increases farther north and east, and in parts of northern and eastern Montana, June typically brings 20 percent of the annual total, or slightly more. Given the dry climatology in the Southwest and southern Rockies, drought improvement or removal is unlikely there despite the official June Outlook favoring above-normal precipitation in the central Four Corners region. Farther east, improvement or removal is forecast across central and eastern New Mexico, where June climatology is wetter and the monthly Outlook favors above-normal precipitation. Farther north, the Outlook favors subnormal June precipitation across the Northwest and into the northern Rockies. Drought is expected to persist or potentially worsen in most of this region, with drought expansion anticipated in most areas that are abnormally dry currently (D0). North-central Montana is an exception, with improvement or removal expected due to heavy precipitation (locally up to 3 inches) through the first several days of June, which should preclude any development in adjacent D0 areas.



Forecast confidence for the West Region is high in the Southwest and moderate elsewhere



In the High Plains region, above-normal precipitation is favored in the monthly Outlook across eastern Colorado and Kansas, supporting a forecast of improvement or removal there. Farther north, neither above-normal nor below-normal precipitation is depicted in the June Outlook across western Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. There, moderate precipitation is expected during the first few days of June, and there are marginally-increased odds for above-normal totals into mid-June, but amounts are not expected to be sufficient to markedly improve existing areas of drought.



Forecast confidence in the High Plains Region is moderate.



The June Drought Outlook is a mixed bag across the South Region. Drought is expected to ease across eastern New Mexico, western Texas, central Oklahoma, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by the end of June. In these areas, June climatologically is similar to or somewhat wetter than other times of the year, and the June Precipitation Outlook favors heavier than normal amounts. Farther east, drought is expected to persist and may worsen across eastern Oklahoma, south-central through northeastern Texas, much of Arkansas and adjacent Louisiana, Tennessee, and northern Mississippi due to seasonably hot weather and no marked departure from normal precipitation favored in the official June Outlook. Across most of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, the June Outlook features enhanced chances for surplus rainfall, so drought improvement or removal is anticipated.



Forecast confidence in the South Region is moderate.



In the Midwest Region, moderate to severe drought currently covers most of Kentucky and adjacent southeastern Missouri, but very little drought exists elsewhere, limited to a small part of north-central Minnesota and some of the far western fringes of the Region adjacent to the High Plains. The June Outlook favors subnormal precipitation across the Great Lakes and adjacent areas, and is non-committal elsewhere. Meanwhile, higher than normal temperatures are expected for June as a whole. In the areas currently enduring drought, this supports drought persistence with limited intensification possible. Furthermore, early June is expected to be particularly warm and dry from northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana northwestward across southern Wisconsin and adjacent portions of Iowa. Conditions are at or near D0 across these areas, so a swath of drought is expected to develop in these regions by the end of the month.



Forecast confidence in the Midwest Region is moderate.



The Southeast Region is almost entirely covered by drought (over 96 percent), with almost 40% percent of the Region enduring extreme or exceptional drought (D3-D4). From Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina southward through Florida, the June Outlook favors above-normal precipitation, so some improvement and limited removal is expected there. Farther north, where abnormal June wetness is not favored in the official Outlook, drought is expected to be essentially unchanged by the end of June, though some oscillations in severity are possible in any areas where brief periods of locally heavy rainfall are observed.



Forecast confidence in the Southeast Region is high.



Drought covers the southern sections of the Northeast Region, along with significant portions of New England. Early in the period, moderate to heavy precipitation across southern New Hampshire and adjacent areas are expected to bring drought improvement or removal with reintensification not expected by the end of the month. Elsewhere, indicators do not consistently favor markedly above-normal totals, so persistence is forecast.



Forecast confidence is moderate in the Northeast Region.



The abnormal dryness that covered over 10 percent of Alaska in late April was eliminated by the end of May, and re-development by the end of the month is unlikely.



Forecast confidence in Alaska is high.



Patches of abnormal dryness are affecting Maui and the Big Island in Hawaii, but expected above-normal June rainfall is expected to preclude any drought development.



Forecast confidence in Hawaii is high.



Across Puerto Rico, a few stretches of coastline are abnormally dry as of late May, and there are some models forecasting subnormal June rainfall, but there is not enough confidence that rainfall amounts will be low enough to allow any drought development, although the situation will need to be monitored closely.



Forecast confidence in Puerto Rico is low.



Abnormally dry conditions cover the U.S. Virgin Islands in late May, and some models forecast subnormal June rainfall, but there is not enough confidence that amounts will be low enough to allow any drought development, although the situation will need to be monitored closely.



Forecast confidence in the U.S. Virgin Islands is low.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT