Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for July, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on June 23, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Precipitation climatology varies widely over the Western Region during July. For much of California, typically 2 percent or less of its annual precipitation falls at this time of year, with up to 8-10 percent of its annual precipitation obtained over far southeastern parts of California, as well as central Montana and southern Utah. For much of the remainder of the West (excluding Arizona, New Mexico, and eastern Montana), this is a very dry time of year with normally less than 5 percent of its annual precipitation received. In sharp contrast, July is the beginning of the climatological monsoon season across the Southwest, and most of New Mexico and Arizona typically receive 10-20 percent of their annual precipitation during this month. Eastern Montana also receives approximately the same percentage of its annual precipitation in July as do New Mexico and Arizona but for a different reason. In this case, the precipitation is largely due to thunderstorm clusters (known as MCS's) and passing fronts.



The latest USDM indicates almost 76 percent of the West is currently experiencing drought conditions (D1-D4), with 17.8 percent of that total being in D3-D4 status. With few exceptions, stream flows are near to below normal (<75th percentile), as depicted by the USGS Water Dashboard. The Lake Mead Water Level outside Las Vegas is currently 1,045.42 feet MSL, which is 183.58 feet below full pool of 1,229.00 feet (https://mead.uslakes.info/Level/).



The week-1 quantitative precipitation forecast from WPC depicts up to a half-inch of rain over parts of the Idaho-Montana border, as well as far eastern New Mexico, with very little if any rainfall elsewhere across the Western Region. During week-2, there are minimal tilts in the odds towards above-normal precipitation in Montana, with elevated chances of above-normal precipitation for Arizona, southeastern California, and parts of neighboring states. The updated July 2026 precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation for much of the interior West. It is reasoned that the best chances of at least a one-category improvement in drought conditions are in Arizona, and parts of Nevada and Utah, which is consistent with El Niño summer precipitation composites. For areas farther north where climatological precipitation amounts are very low, it won't take much to receive above normal precipitation; however, this is not expected to be enough to warrant a one-category improvement.



Drought persistence is deemed most likely over northwestern portions of the Lower 48 states, based on unusually low snowpack accumulated during the past winter, prevailing above-normal temperatures, and generally low precipitation amounts. Drought development is introduced to portions of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Basin, Northern Rockies, and much of northern California.



Forecast confidence across the Western Region is moderate to high, except low over the Central Great Basin. This is where above normal rainfall is favored for July, but it is uncertain as to whether or not it will be enough to warrant any improvement.



The High Plains region typically receives anywhere from 7-20 percent of its annual precipitation during the month of July, with these percentages ramping down fairly quickly after peaking in May and June. This is due in large part to MCS activity and passing fronts. On the drier side is western Wyoming and northwestern Colorado, with percentages as high as 7%.



The latest USDM indicates just over 66 percent of the High Plains Region is currently experiencing drought conditions (D1-D4), with 24.5 percent of that total being in D3-D4 status. Stream flows are mostly near to below normal (<75th percentile), with the exception of Kansas where they are near to above normal (25th to 100th percentile). By far, the largest clustering of below normal stream flows (<25th percentile) are in Colorado.



The updated monthly precipitation outlook favors mostly Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, and below-normal precipitation in July. Given a clear lack of a wet signal, drought persistence is thought to be the most likely outcome. Drought development is introduced for parts of eastern Colorado and adjacent western Kansas.



Forecast confidence across the High Plains Region is generally moderate, and low over the Dakotas.



For a majority of the Southern Region, July is a relatively dry month, with only up to about 10 percent of its annual precipitation being received. Typically, 10 to as much as 20 percent of the annual precipitation falls across the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle region and far western portions of Texas. In southeastern Louisiana, the percentages range from about 10-14 percent.



Just over 43 percent of the Southern Region is currently experiencing drought conditions (D1-D4). Most stream flows range from near to above normal at this time, with a scattering of below normal flows over central parts of Oklahoma and Texas.



During week-1, far western and eastern portions of the Southern Region are most likely to receive decent rainfall (about 0.75-inch). Below normal rainfall is favored at the monthly time scale from south-central Texas to western Louisiana, in part due to El Niño composites, but also warmer-than-normal temperatures and elevated rates of evapotranspiration (ET). Persistence and development of drought are indicated for most of the Southern Region, with the exception of Tennessee, where improvement and/or removal is favored.



Forecast confidence across the Southern Region is considered moderate to high.



The Midwestern Region can usually expect to receive anywhere from about 7-20 percent of its annual precipitation in July, with the highest percentages favored in Minnesota, followed by Iowa, Wisconsin, and Upper Michigan. This is due in large part to MCS activity and passing fronts.



Currently, 13.3 percent of the Midwestern Region is experiencing drought conditions (D1-D4). Soil moisture (SPoRT 0-40cm) values are at or below the 10th percentile in southwestern Minnesota, much of northern and western Iowa, and from southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois eastward across much of Kentucky. A majority of stream flow gauges in the region are registering near normal values, with the remaining gauges reporting a comparable mix of above and below normal stream flows.



For week-1, anywhere from 1.5-4.0 inches of precipitation is predicted over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and northern Iowa. In general, 0.75-inch of precipitation or less is favored for the remainder of the Midwest Region. For week-2 and weeks 3-4, the southeastern portion of the Midwest Region is expected to receive improvement and/or removal of drought. In contrast, the northwestern portions of the Region are expected to dry out significantly, which is consistent with a positively tilted mean trough axis bisecting the Midwest Region throughout much of July.



Forecast confidence across the Midwest Region is moderate to high.



For interior sections of the Southeast Region, 7-10 percent of its annual precipitation usually falls in July. Near the coast, precipitation percentages range from 10-14 percent (in part due to sea breeze-related showers), while over Florida the values range from 10-20 percent. Climatologically, the rainy season is normally established across the state of Florida by July, with an active sea-breeze convergence pattern, and along with June signifies the peak of lightning flashes.



About 63 percent of the Southeast Region is currently designated at some level of drought (D1-D4). Soil moisture (SPoRT 0-40cm) values are at or below the 10th percentile in west-central Florida, eastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and western portions of Virginia. Currently, a wide range of stream flows exist. For northern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula (as far south as Lake Okeechobee), stream flow values are mostly confined to the lowest quartile of the historical distribution. Near to above normal stream flows dominate the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and central and southern Georgia. Below normal stream flows are common throughout northern Georgia, the northern half of South Carolina, and much of North Carolina and Virginia.



A weak positively-tilted, mid-level trough is predicted over the east-central to eastern CONUS for much of July. Atlantic and Gulf moisture streaming in over the Region favors drought improvement and removal for much of the Region, though persistence is deemed more likely from northern South Carolina northward through Virginia.



Forecast confidence across the Southeast Region is low-to-moderate.



With few exceptions, the Northeast Region can typically expect to receive 7-14 percent of its annual precipitation during July.



Currently, 31.2 of the Northeast Region is experiencing drought (D1-D4), with the worst conditions (D3) depicted over parts of the Delmarva region. The distribution of drought in this Region is quite salient, with drought restricted to approximately the southeastern half of the Northeast Region, with the northwestern half remaining free of abnormal dryness or drought. Soil moisture (SPoRT 0-40cm) values are at or below the 10th percentile in Maryland, Delaware, and much of eastern Pennsylvania. As would be expected, below normal stream flows (i.e. <25th percentile) largely correspond to the areas of abnormal dryness and drought, while near to above normal stream flows largely coincide with dryness and drought-free conditions.



Despite the predicted longevity of a mid-level trough over the east-central to eastern CONUS through much of July, the outlook is far from certain. Longer-term drought and significant accumulated precipitation deficits make it more likely for drought conditions to continue from Maryland northeastward into southern New England. This is especially true with extreme heat and elevated rates of ET that are anticipated during the first half of the month. In line with the official 30-day outlook for July, the best chance for some improvement or removal of drought is favored over central and northern New England, where above-normal precipitation amounts are predicted.



Forecast confidence across the Northeast Region is considered low-to-moderate for near-coastal areas.



For Alaska, up to 10 percent of its annual precipitation is normally received during July over the Alaska Peninsula, southern Mainland coast, and Southeast Alaska. In contrast, from about the Alaska Range northward to the Arctic coast, the percentages range from 10-25 percent. Along with June and early August, July is part of the short convective season for the Alaska interior. Normal precipitation for Fairbanks in July is 2.26 inches. For the arid polar desert of the North Slope, the increase in precipitation is associated with open water (i.e. lack of sea ice) near the Arctic coast. Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) typically gets 1.08 inches of precipitation in July. Other average precipitation amounts for July in Alaska include 1.82 inches in Anchorage and 5.14 inches in Juneau.



No drought is currently present in Alaska, and only 7.4 percent of the state is currently in abnormally dry (D0) conditions. Rivers are now open state-wide (https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap) with no reported ice jams. However, please note the caveat that it is still possible for runs of ice and debris to move through as headwaters upstream breakup.



There is no drought in Alaska at this time, and none is forecast during July.



Forecast confidence for Alaska is moderate to high.



The climatological dry season in Hawaii typically includes the warmer half of the calendar year. Average precipitation amounts for July include: Honolulu (0.51-inch), Kahului (0.50-inch), and Hilo (10.81 inches).



There is no drought in Hawaii at this time, with 15.7 percent of the state designated as abnormally dry. This includes portions of the Big Island and Maui. The USGS National Water Dashboard shows, with few exceptions, that stream flows are either near or above normal at this time.



There is no drought in Hawaii at this time, and none is forecast during July.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate.



Precipitation climatology varies widely across Puerto Rico. The height of the rainy season (Aug-Sep-Oct) is approaching, in part because of the proximity of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the higher frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and diurnal heating of very humid air to form showers and thunderstorms. This summer, with the current El Niño in place and forecast to strengthen, normally increased westerly wind shear would significantly reduce the number and/or intensity of tropical cyclones that develop. Suggestive of a drier pattern overall, this scenario is backed by the very dry forecasts (negative precipitation anomalies) of the GEFS and ECENS dynamical models which forecast out through the middle of July. Therefore, drought development is favored for Puerto Rico in July.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is moderate to high.



The same climatological and physical considerations that apply to Puerto Rico also apply to the USVI. Therefore, persistence and/or intensification of drought conditions are forecast.



Forecast confidence for the U.S. Virgin Islands is moderate to high.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT