Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for March, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on February 24, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Drought expansion was observed over parts of the northern West region during the past month. As of February 24, 2026, about 72% of the West was covered with abnormal dryness (D0) to exceptional drought (D4) and nearly half (45%) of the West was under drought (D1 to D4) conditions. The ongoing snow drought is the primary concern now that is affecting a majority of the West. As of late February, snow water equivalent (SWE) was running below 50% of average from southern Washington, much of Oregon and adjacent California and Nevada to the Great Basin and Four Corners region. Given the low snowpack and lack of wet signals in March precipitation outlooks, persistence is favored for ongoing drought areas throughout the West.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West.



Drought continued to expand and intensify across the Central High Plains during February. As of February 24, 2026, about 62% of the High Plains was covered with abnormal dryness (D0) to exceptional drought (D4) and nearly half (45%) of the region was under drought (D1 to D4) conditions. Snow water equivalent is also running below 70% of normal almost throughout Colorado. Based on a relatively dry climatology and absence of wet signals in the updated March outlook, persistence is forecast for much of the ongoing drought areas of the High Plains, with exception for southeastern Kansas where removal or improvement is anticipated due predicted heavy precipitation in the WPC 7 day QPF forecast and favorable wet signals depicted in the CPC extended range and monthly precipitation outlooks.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains.



Currently, about 94% of the South Region was covered with abnormal dryness (D0) to exceptional drought (D4) and nearly half (75%) of the region was under drought (D1 to D4) conditions. Looking ahead into the March period, the WPC forecasts 1 to 4 inches of precipitation across parts of the northeastern South region. The CPC extended range outlooks predict favorable wet signals across the region. The CPC monthly precipitation outlook also depicts a favorable wet pattern across northeastern portions of the region and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation for the rest of the areas. Therefore, removal or improvement is anticipated for ongoing drought over parts of eastern Texas, much of Oklahoma, the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Persistence is forecast for parts of the southern and western South region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South.



During the past month, 1 to 2 class improvement was observed in southern portions of the Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes region. Conversely, 1 to 2 class degradation was seen over central and western portions of the Midwest.



Looking ahead into the March period, the WPC predicts 1 to 5 inches of precipitation across much of the central and southern Midwest in the next 7 days. The CPC extended range forecasts and updated monthly precipitation outlook depict a favorable wet pattern across much of the Midwest region. Removal or improvement is the most likely outcome for the ongoing drought across the Midwest region.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest.



Continued drought expansion and intensification were observed over parts of the Southeast during the past month. As of February 24, 2026, about 99% of the Southeast was covered with abnormal dryness (D0) to extreme drought (D3) and much (90%) of the Southeast was designated with at least moderate and extreme drought conditions, respectively. It is a typical phenomenon for a La Niñ\;a winter. The current soil moisture condition across the Southeast is very bad and climatologically March is a dry time of year over much of the region. Heading into the March period, the CPC extended range forecasts depict a wet pattern across parts of the Southeast. The CPC monthly precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation over parts of northwestern Alabama, below-normal precipitation for southern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation for the rest of the Southeast region. Improvement or removal is likely for parts of the Southern Appalachians and southwestern Alabama. Given absence of wet signals and larger 90-day precipitation deficits, persistence is more likely for the remainder of the Southeast region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast.



Drought conditions across the Northeast region were stable and barely changed during the past month. Heading into the March period, the WPC forecasts 1 to 3 inches of precipitation across southwestern portions of the region in the next 7 days. The CPC extended range forecasts also favor slightly above-normal precipitation over the Northeast in the early half of the month and the updated monthly precipitation outlook predicts slightly above-normal precipitation for the far western Northeast and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation for the rest of the Northeast region. Removal is likely for ongoing drought over parts of western New York and Pennsylvania. Conversely, drought persistence is favored for the remainder of the Northeast region, owing to lack of clear wet signals and larger 90-day precipitation deficits over the region.



Forecast confidence is low for the Mid-Atlantic and moderate for the remainder of the Northeast.



Currently there are a couple of areas of abnormal dryness (D0) designated across parts of Mainland Alaska. The CPC monthly outlook calls for slightly below-normal precipitation over southern portions of Mainland Alaska and equal chances of below-normal, near-normal and above-normal precipitation for the remaining areas. Drought development is not expected during the period. Alaska is likely to remain drought-free through the end of March.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid February 24, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continues for parts of Maui and northern parts of the Big Island. The CPC monthly outlook predicts a favorable wet pattern across the Hawaii Islands. Continued drought removal or improvement is forecast for March.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Although the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid February 24, designates abnormal dryness (D0) for parts of Puerto Rico, drought development is unlikely during March due to the dynamical models favoring near to slightly above-normal precipitation over the region for the period.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



Drought-free conditions are forecast for St John, St Thomas and St Croix of the U.S. Virgin Islands due to the dynamical models favoring near to slightly above-normal precipitation across the areas for March.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: March 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT