Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for December, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for December, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on November 25, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



Across the West Region, December varies from one of the wettest months of the year close to the Pacific Coast, to one of the driest along the eastern fringe of the region in the northern and southern High Plains. Central and southern California, along with areas west of the Cascades, typically receive over 15 percent of their annual precipitation in December. Generally 9 to 15 percent of annual precipitation is typical in December across the northern Intermountain West, but the proportion drops to just 2 to 4 percent in eastern sections of Montana and New Mexico. Nondescript conditions are forecast for the first week of December, with moderate to heavy precipitation expected only across higher elevations and near-coastal locations in the northern half of the West Region. Thereafter, the Region is expected to settle into a pattern featuring above-normal precipitation across the northern and parts of the central West Region, with subnormal amounts anticipated farther south into mid-December. The official monthly outlook favors above-normal precipitation over the northern Rockies and parts of the Intermountain West, with no strong indication favoring wetness nor dryness elsewhere. Improvement is forecast across the entire northern tier of the West Region and into the adjacent central Rockies. Even though abnormal wetness is not favored across Washington and Oregon, the wet climatology during this time of the year should be sufficient to provide some relief. Farther south, drought persistence is expected across most of the drought areas in the central and southern Rockies, with some areas of deterioration possible. This is consistent with subnormal precipitation being expected during the first half of December, and no clear precipitation signal thereafter. Many of the deterministic models indicate the potential for very low amounts of precipitation over eastern New Mexico, where December climatology is dry to begin with. With some short-term moisture deficits in place already, drought is forecast to develop there by the end of the year.



Forecast confidence is high across the northern tier of the West Region, and moderate elsewhere given the less consistent guidance.



Outside the higher elevations in western Wyoming and Colorado, December is one of the driest months of the year climatologically across the High Plains Region. Most of the lower elevations from eastern portions of Colorado and Wyoming eastward across the central and northern Great Plains typically record less than 4 percent of their annual precipitation during December. Across southern Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas, December typically brings only 1 to 2 percent of the annual total. The official December forecast 2025 favors wetter than normal weather over most of Wyoming, North Dakota, and northern South Dakota, with odds leaning slightly toward drier than normal weather in eastern Nebraska and much of Kansas. As a result, the December Drought Outlook calls for drought persistence or removal in affected areas of Wyoming, with persistence more likely farther south in most of Colorado. Currently, there isn't much drought affecting the lower elevations of the High Plains Region, but persistence is forecast for the patches that do exist across the central tier of the Region. Due to the dry climatology, this is even true in areas where above-normal December precipitation is affected, as it seems unlikely that amounts will be large enough to significantly budge current conditions. Still, it does lower confidence just a bit.



Forecast confidence in the High Plains Region is moderate.



In the South Region, December is one of the drier months of the year across central and western sections of Oklahoma and Texas, typically bringing only 2 to 4 percent of the annual precipitation to western areas. Farther east, December climatologically is not particularly dry nor wet compared to other times of the year. The official December forecast leans toward subnormal precipitation across Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas, with neither significantly above- nor below-normal precipitation favored farther south for the month. The first half of December looks to be on the dry side, however, and given the drier climatology compared to other times of the year, drought persistence or intensification is most likely from central Texas and Oklahoma westward. Meanwhile, the December forecast favors heavier than normal precipitation across the southeastern tier of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, southeastern Arkansas, and Tennessee. During the first week of the month, excessive precipitation totals of 2 to locally over 5 inches are forecast for southeastern Texas and the southern and central sections of Louisiana and Mississippi. Lesser amounts are expected farther north, with totals under an inch forecast for the first week of December across Arkansas. The areas expecting heavy to excessive rains in the short-term should see drought improvement or removal. Farther north the forecast is more tricky, with any surplus precipitation expected to fall during the latter half of the month, which is inherently less certain given the period is more than a couple weeks away. It is also unclear if enough precipitation will fall on northern sections of Louisiana and Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas to markedly improve conditions, even if the month does end up somewhat wetter than normal in sum. For this reason, the drought areas across Arkansas, northern Louisiana and Mississippi, and Tennessee are forecast to persist, although with low confidence. Farther south, where excessive rainfall looks likely for the first week of December 2025, improvement or removal is forecast, with high confidence.



Forecast confidence in the South Region is low to moderate in north-central and northeastern parts of the South Region, and high over the Plains and in southeastern parts of the Region where heavy rain is likely in the short-term.



The forecast is tricky across the Midwest Region. The official December outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the northern, eastern, and southern tiers of the region while below-normal December precipitation is slightly favored across most of Iowa and Missouri. Climatologically, December is one of the drier months of the year along the western tier of the Region, along with the western half of the Great Lakes. December typically brings only 2 to 4 percent of the annual total to areas from central and western Iowa northward through Minnesota. In contrast, December is not particularly wet or dry compared to the rest of the year in areas along and south of the Ohio River. The first week of December is expected to be wetter than normal across Kentucky, but there is no drought there currently. Farther north, across areas affected by drought, light to locally moderate precipitation is possible then, and totals may exceed an inch in a few areas, but such amounts are not expected to be widespread. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks slightly favor surplus precipitation across roughly the northern half of the region, but again, northwestern parts of the Midwest Region are climatologically drier than most other months. In sum, the confluence of all these considerations essentially follows climatology, with areas of drought expected to persist in western reaches of the Midwest Region while removal or improvement is anticipated farther east.



Forecast confidence in the Midwest Region is low.



In the Southeast Region, drought persistence with some expansion is expected across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent Georgia. Light amounts are forecast through the first week of December, but above-normal totals are somewhat more likely during the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. Thereafter, the last half of the month is forecast to be drier than normal, as is the month as a whole. Climatology is not particularly a consideration in this region, so the forecast essentially follows the official December outlook. Farther north, a broad swath of heavy to excessive rain is forecast over the first week of December from Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through most of Georgia and the Carolinas. Totals of 3 to locally over 5 inches are forecast from the Florida Panhandle through central Georgia. Farther north, up to 2 inches of precipitation may fall on southeastern Virginia during this period, with several tenths of an inch likely over most other parts of the state. The official precipitation forecast for December as a whole at least slightly favors surplus precipitation north of Florida and southernmost Georgia. In sum, this should mean that enough precipitation to bring drought improvement or removal is a bit more likely than not across Virginia while farther south, the heavy to excessive rains in the short-term make improvement or removal far more likely.



Forecast confidence is high from Florida northward through the Carolinas, and moderate farther north.



During the first week of December, over an inch of precipitation is forecast close to the Atlantic Coast, with amounts dropping off farther west, where several tenths of an inch seem likely. Thereafter, odds somewhat favor above-normal precipitation totals during middle and late December, with the official outlook for the month as a whole following suit, slightly favoring wetter than normal conditions. Given the time of year, when human and evaporative demand is relatively low, above-normal December precipitation seems more likely than not to bring drought improvement or removal to affected areas Regionwide, even if amounts end up only slightly higher than normal.



Forecast confidence in the Northeast Region is moderate.



No drought or abnormal dryness exists across Alaska, and this time of year, development is highly unlikely, so the state is expected to remain drought-free.



Forecast confidence in Alaska is high.



Much of Hawaii is covered by drought, some of it entrenched for a number of months. The December outlook significantly leans toward wetter than normal December weather, and since this time of year is somewhat wetter than most others climatologically, drought improvement or removal is the only viable forecast, although the entrenched nature of conditions reduces confidence somewhat.



Forecast confidence across Hawaii is moderate.



Abnormally dry conditions cover a swath across central Puerto Rico. The precipitation forecast for December is uncertain, but given the time of year, these areas are expected to remain out of drought, although confidence is low given the prevailing dryness and forecast uncertainty.



Forecast confidence is low.



Abnormally dry conditions cover the U.S. Virgin Islands. The precipitation forecast for December is uncertain, but given the time of year, these areas are expected to remain out of drought, although confidence is low given the prevailing dryness and forecast uncertainty.



Forecast confidence is low.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: December 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EST