Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for February, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on January 27, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Major drought amelioration occurred across much of the West from December 2025 into the beginning of January 2026. This included California becoming drought-free. However, with the exception of southern Arizona, this drought amelioration ended during mid to late January as a much drier pattern became established. The primary concern now is the ongoing snow drought that is affecting a majority of the West. As of late January, snow water equivalent (SWE) was running below 50% of average from southern Washington and Oregon southeast to the Great Basin and Four Corners region. Even the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, which benefited from heavy December snowfall, have seen their SWE decrease to below 50% of average by the end of January. A high amplitude 500-hPa ridge near the West Coast favors a dry start to February, but there are signs of a pattern change heading into mid-February as the GEFS and ECENS depict a mid-level trough developing. This changeable weather pattern from early to mid-February makes for a challenging monthly drought outlook for the West. Given the low snowpack and dry start to the month, persistence is favored for ongoing drought areas throughout the West. The increasing chance of a pattern change towards a more snowy one during the latter half of February precludes any designation of development. In addition, drought development associated with the low snowpack is more likely later in the spring when water demand increases.



Forecast confidence is low for the West.



Drought expanded and intensified across the Central Great Plains during January. Based on a relatively dry climatology and the updated February outlook leaning towards the drier sides, persistence is forecast for the ongoing drought areas of Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Snow water equivalent is running below 70% of normal throughout Colorado and southern Wyoming. Despite the currently low snowpack and elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities in the updated February outlook, the dynamical models continue to depict a pattern change with a developing 500-hPa trough over the West by mid-February. If this were to occur, then a transition to a much snowier pattern may affect the Central Rockies during the latter half of February. This predicted pattern change precludes the designation of additional drought development from the Central Rockies of Colorado east to the Central High Plains.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains.



Recent precipitation across northern to central Texas during late January along with near to above normal-precipitation favored for much of the Lonestar State during early to mid-February preclude any drought development across Texas. The Texas Panhandle is an area primed for development. Although relatively cool temperatures and low water demand at this time of year are expected to slow any broad-scale development, a small area of development is designated for the eastern Texas Panhandle and parts of western to northern Oklahoma where there are precipitation deficits dating back 6 months. This development is supported by the updated February outlook leaning slightly on the dry side. Although the updated February outlook leans towards the wetter side for the Rio Grande Valley, precipitation is not expected to be enough for any significant improvement. Conversely, light to moderate precipitation (0.5 to 1 inch) during the first week of February and an increasing chance of a wetter pattern from mid to late February support removal or improvement for parts of the Tennessee Valley and parts of northern Louisiana. A larger area of the Lower Mississippi Valley was not included in the improvement as many areas have 60-day precipitation deficits of near 6 inches or more. Development is forecast for extreme southeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi Gulf Coast where short-term precipitation deficits exist and are expected to miss out on any heavier February precipitation.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South.



Northern Missouri, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin had improving drought conditions during January, while drought remained steady or worsened closer to the Ohio Valley and across southeastern Missouri. Since the first week of February is forecast to be mostly dry (less than 0.25 inch, liquid equivalent) and the updated February outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation, persistence is forecast for the ongoing drought areas of the Midwest. February is one of the drier months of the year which also supports broad-scale persistence.



Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest.



Except for Alabama and northwestern Georgia, most of the Southeast had a one-category degradation during January. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid January 27, 83 and 55 percent of the Southeast Region (Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Carolinas, and Virginia) is designated with at least moderate and severe drought, respectively. This large coverage of moderate to severe drought is typical for a La Niña winter. As of January 31, a major winter storm was affecting northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Improvements associated with this winter storm were generally designated for areas where the Weather Prediction Center depicts more than 6 inches of snowfall. Also, the updated February outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Due to the heavy snowfall at the end of January and if near or above-normal precipitation verifies for February, improvement or removal is the most likely outcome for parts of the Southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Due to larger 90-day precipitation deficits, persistence is more likely for the northwest corner of South Carolina. Despite the heavy snow and sleet (1.5 inches or more, liquid equivalent) across northern Virginia during late January, 6-month precipitation deficits exceed 9 inches. Topsoil moisture may gradually improve once the snow/sleet melts, but given the long-term precipitation deficits and that 28-day average streamflows were below the 10th percentile heading into late January, broad-scale persistence is favored throughout Virginia. Drought continues to worsen across Florida and a freeze at the end of January may exacerbate the agricultural impacts. Heading into February, low streamflows and poor pasture conditions are ongoing drought impacts in northern to central Florida. Drought persistence and development (east-central) is likely for the Sunshine State.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast.



The February drought outlook is challenging for the Mid-Atlantic due to the recent heavy snow and sleet during late January and how much of a favorable response in soils and hydrology will occur with a very slow melt process. In targeting specific areas for improvement or removal, precipitation departures from normal at multiple time scales was considered. Drought removal is most likely for parts of Delaware and southern New Jersey where 30 to 60-day precipitation has averaged at or above-normal. Removal or improvement is also favored for southern Maryland and Washington, DC that received near 2 inches, liquid equivalent, during late January and 30 to 60-day precipitation has averaged close to normal. Despite the heavy snow and sleet (1.5 inches or more, liquid equivalent) across northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia during late January, 6-month precipitation deficits exceed 9 inches. Topsoil moisture is expected to improve, but given the long-term precipitation deficits and that 28-day average streamflows were below the 10th percentile heading into late January, drought persistence is expected for the remainder of Maryland and eastern West Virginia. Elsewhere for the Northeast, the long-term drought is forecast to persist with frozen soil and the lack of a clear wet signal during February.



Forecast confidence is low for the Mid-Atlantic and high for the remainder of the Northeast.



Although there are a couple of areas of abnormal dryness (D0) designated for the greater Seward Peninsula area, Kenai Peninsula, and parts of south-central Alaska, drought development is not expected through the end of February. As of late January, snow water equivalent is running 70 to 80% of average across the Kenai Peninsula.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.



Except for a couple of areas of improvement across the Big Island, drought coverage and intensity remained stable during January. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid January 27, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continues for much of Maui and northern parts of the Big Island. Since dynamical models favor an increasingly wet pattern for Hawaii and potential for the formation of Kona lows during early to mid-February, drought removal or improvement is forecast.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Although the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid January 27, designates abnormal dryness (D0) for parts of Puerto Rico, drought development is unlikely during February due to an unusually wet start to the month. The mid-latitude storm track is forecast to be displaced well south in early February which is expected to result in above-normal precipitation to Puerto Rico.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, early February is forecast to be unusually wet for the U.S. Virgin Islands. Since the GEFS and ECENS depict more than 2 inches of precipitation during the next two weeks, drought removal is forecast for St Thomas and St John. This wet start to February makes drought development unlikely across St Croix.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: February 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM EST