Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for May, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for May, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on April 28, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



Since the end of March, drought conditions slowly expanded across the Western Region. Late season moisture boosted soil moisture and streamflows across parts of California, but did little to change the snowpack conditions across the Sierras. Drought conditions eased in some portions of the northern Intermountain West and the high plains of Montana, but overall, drought blankets nearly half of the region's land area. Climatological precipitation decreases rapidly west of the Rockies during May, and therefore the region typically begins relying on snowmelt to maintain reservoir levels and streamflows. A late season storm system is forecast to bring precipitation to northern California and southern Oregon during the first week of May; however, this precipitation is not expected to substantively change the overall situation. Reservoir levels and streamflows in California are currently adequate, and drought conditions are not favored to expand rapidly during May, though snowmelt from the much below-average SWE content in the Sierras may cease towards the end of the month. Across Washington, Oregon, and Montana, impacts from dryness are already expanding, and therefore some drought development is possible during May. Despite the forecast for above-normal precipitation across the southern Four Corners region in the updated May outlook, low climatology this time of year precludes any significant drought reduction.



Forecast confidence for the Western Region is high.



Drought coverage remained fairly stable at just under 70 percent across the High Plains region, but dry, warm weather during April increased the coverage of severe to extreme drought impacts. May is an important month for moisture recharge across the High Plains, as Gulf moisture can penetrate far to the north, which fosters both convective events and very wet late-season winter storms. Over the next week, widespread precipitation is forecast across Colorado's Front Range region, with light rainfall extending into Kansas, but little precipitation is anticipated elsewhere across the Great Plains. The revised May outlook favors below-normal precipitation across the Dakotas, northern Wyoming, and most of Nebraska. With a pattern favoring anomalous troughing to the east and ridging to the west, northerly flow may limit the extent of Gulf moisture that overspreads the Plains. Therefore, drought persistence is the most likely outcome for existing drought areas, with some drought expansion possible into areas already abnormally dry across the northern Plains.



Forecast confidence for the High Plains region is low.



Across the Southern Region, improvements across Texas and eastern Oklahoma were offset by rapid drought degradation across the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. As of the April 28, 2026 US Drought Monitor, nearly 84 percent of the Southern Region is currently experiencing drought. Short term forecasts indicate widespread heavy rainfall extending from eastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley, which should bring some much needed drought relief. Less heavy but still widespread precipitation is also forecast across Tennessee and northern Arkansas during the first week of May. The updated May outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the southern two-thirds of Texas, Louisiana and far southern Arkansas, and much of Mississippi. Given these outlooks, drought reductions are favored within these regions. Absent a clear wet signal and considering the severe impacts to soil moisture and streamflows, drought persistence is maintained elsewhere across the region.



Forecast confidence for the Southern Region is moderate.



The Midwest Region remains the least impacted Regional Climate Center area by drought conditions, with just over 11-percent coverage as of April 28, a decrease from 24-percent at the start of the month. Widespread heavy precipitation has boosted soil moisture and resulted in some river and stream flooding across the region. During May, a cool, unsettled pattern is favored for the first half of the month, with widespread precipitation overspreading the eastern corn belt in the first week of the month. Therefore, no additional drought development is forecast for the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Drought persistence is maintained across northern Minnesota, where the signals are a bit drier, and some slow development is possible across western Iowa.



Forecast confidence for the Midwest Region is high.



Widespread drought continues to plague the Southeast Region, with almost the entire region currently experiencing drought conditions of varying degrees of severity. Hot, dry conditions worsened the drought considerably during April, and many locations experienced near or record low year to date precipitation accumulations. As the organized severe weather threat shifts northwestward during May, a more small-scale convective regime tends to establish itself across the Southeast during May and into the summer months. The extent of this convection absent any larger scale forcing is uncertain, since soil moisture values are so low. During the first week of May, a storm system is favored to bring much needed rainfall to the Deep South, with forecast accumulations heaviest across Alabama and decreasing across Georgia, northern Florida, and South Carolina. The revised monthly outlook for May favors above-normal precipitation for southwestern Alabama and the far western Florida panhandle, and equal chances elsewhere. Some drought improvement is indicated for these areas, but drought persistence is maintained for most of the rest of the region absent a clearer wet signal. Across southern Florida, some improvements may commence by the end of the month as the seabreeze convective rainy season begins.



Forecast confidence for the Southeast Region is moderate.



Following an abnormally warm and dry April, drought conditions expanded across the Northeast Region, and now cover just over 42-percent of the land area. While no areas of extreme or exceptional (D3 to D4) drought are currently in place, the drought conditions are designated long term, which is unusual for the Northeast and reflects impacts to groundwater and reservoirs that are slower to recover. During the first week of May, a storm system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall to Maine and areas west of the Appalachians, with lesser accumulations across the mid-Atlantic region and southern New England. The revised May outlook shows a small area of increased odds for above-normal precipitation across northern Maine, but maintains equal chances elsewhere. Typically, a generous precipitation climatology as frontal-generated precipitation is gradually replaced with a summertime convective regime would provide opportunities for drought relief, especially given the prospects for below-normal temperatures during the first part of the month which would reduce evapotranspirative demand. Given the longer-term impacts, however, drought persistence is maintained for the Northeast Region absent a clearer wet signal. The cooler, more unsettled start to the month may help stave off further drought degradation.



Forecast confidence for the Northeast Region is moderate.



No areas of drought are currently in place or favored to develop during May across Alaska.



Forecast confidence for Alaska is high.



Drought coverage decreased considerably across Hawaii over the past two months, and only a small area of moderate drought remains across the Big Island. Continued seasonal rainfall is favored across the islands, especially for the windward facing regions, and continued slow drought reduction is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate.



No drought is currently in place or favored to develop during May across Puerto Rico, though any suppressed convection across the Caribbean region may begin to dry out some portions of the island.



Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is moderate to high.



No drought conditions are currently in place or favored to develop during May across the US Virgin Islands.



Forecast confidence for the US Virgin Islands is moderate to high.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: May 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT