Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for March, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on February 25, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



February is one of the wet months for much of the west coastal regions climatologically and still a critical month for moisture supply across the West, as Pacific storms typically continue to bring abundant moisture that helps to fill reservoirs and build snowpacks across the Cascades, Sierras, and Rockies. During the past month, periodic Pacific storms across much of the western coastal regions, Intermountain West and Rockies brought widespread 1 to 2 class drought amelioration over parts of the regions. However, below normal precipitation coupled with above normal temperatures prevailed across much of the Great Basin and Four Corners Regions, resulting in 1 to 2 class drought degradations or expansion across portions of the Pacific Northwest and southwestern quarter of the contiguous United States in February. Looking ahead to the first week of March, the WPC forecasts some storminess across much of coastal California and parts of the Sierras region in the next 7 days. The CPC Week2 and Week 3-4 outlooks show enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across much of the western coastal region eastward to parts of the Rockies. Given La Niñ\;a conditions continuing to be favored in the March period, the CPC monthly outlooks favor drier conditions across the southern portions of the Western Region and wetter conditions for the Northwest. Therefore, gradual drought relief is forecast for portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, and central California, with persistence maintained across the High Plains due to lack of wet signals in forecasts and lower climatological precipitation. Persistence is favored for the existing drought over much of the Southwest with expansion is likely for portions of Arizona, New Mexico due to predicted near to below normal precipitation coupled with a dry climatology.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Western Region.



Since late September, 2024, more than 60% of the High Plains region has been covered by moderate to extreme drought conditions. During the past 30 days, periodic precipitation events boosted moisture and improved drought conditions (1 to 2 class improvement) across parts of northwestern Wyoming, northern Colorado, northeastern Kansas and adjacent Nebraska. However, 1 class degradation was also observed across sporadic portions of the High Plains due to precipitation deficits. Elsewhere, little change to drought conditions was observed, as both climatological precipitation and evapotranspirative demands are low during the winter season. Climatologically, March is a drier time of year over much of the High Plains region. Looking ahead into the March period, wet signals are absent in almost all range forecasts. Given low climatology and widespread below normal snowpack would seem to preclude widespread improvements during March. Therefore, persistence is maintained throughout much of the High Plains Region.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region.



During February, periodic precipitation across much of eastern portions of the region brought 1 to 2 class drought improvement across parts of eastern Texas, northern Mississippi and central-eastern Tennessee, but 1 to 2 class drought degradation was observed in areas that didn't receive sufficient rainfall coupled with above normal temperatures, including parts of western portions of the region. Climatologically, March is a drier time of year for most central and western portions of the region. Looking ahead into the coming month, the WPC forecasts favor additional rainfall for the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley over the next week, with dry conditions across much of western portions of the region. The revised CPC outlook for March favors below normal precipitation across the Southern Region and the gulf coastal areas, above normal precipitation over parts of the Tennessee Valley and equal chances across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Based on the anticipated drier conditions across Texas and Oklahoma, persistence is maintained for the existing drought with some expansion of drought conditions likely over the region, while improvement is favored for central Tennessee with predicted above normal precipitation.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern Region.



During the past month, sporadic winter storm activity moved across the region and widespread precipitation deficits were observed across much of the Midwest region. Drought conditions worsened and a 1 to 2 class drought degradation was seen in the corn belt areas and parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. An extreme precipitation activity also brought widespread flooding to Kentucky. Climatologically, March is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge over the region. However, widespread below normal snowpack across the region is a concern for the spring time melting. Looking ahead into March, the WPC predicts favorable wet signals during Week-1, with 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across much of the Midwest. The CPC extended range and monthly outlooks all favor above normal precipitation across much of the region. Therefore, drought reductions are favored across much of the region, while persistence is expected for western portions of the region, where the wet signal is weaker coupled with a dry climatology and below normal snowpack.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest Region.



Over the past month, frontal systems brought 1 to 3 class drought improvement to parts of Alabama and North Carolina, and much of Virginia, while a drier month promoted expansion of moderate drought and abnormal dryness over southern portions of the region. 1 to 2 class degradation is observed across parts of South Carolina, Georgia and the Florida Peninsula due to precipitation deficits coupled with above normal temperatures over the region. Looking forward into March, the WPC predicts about 1 inches of precipitation across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas in the next 7 days and the CPC extended range outlooks also favor slightly above normal precipitation across the region. The CPC monthly outlooks predict equal chances for below-, near-, and above-average precipitation along with above-normal temperatures across much of the southeast region. Therefore, drought improvement is favored for parts of Alabama. Persistence of the remainder of the existing drought areas is the most likely outcome with development expected across much of the Florida Peninsula.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



The Northeast was a mixed bag for the past season. The dry condition was observed from early November and turned to a wet mid-November through later December, and then flipped to a dry January overall. During the past month, storm systems brought widespread precipitation across much of the region with sporadic surpluses were seen over western portions of the region and deficits were observed across much of the remainder of the Northeast. Extremely low stream flow was observed across parts of the Mid-Atlantic east coastal regions. Along the coastal region of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, an unusually long term drought continues. Looking ahead into the March period, the WPC forecasts 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across much of the region in the next week, providing some additional opportunities for soil moisture recharge. The CPC extended range forecasts favor slightly above normal precipitation across the region in Week2 and the updated CPC monthly outlook for March show equal chances for below-, near-, and above-average precipitation across much of the Northeast. Climatologically, March is a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Given the forecast wet signals are relatively weak, it may be not enough to warrant improvements across the whole existing drought areas. Therefore, improvement is favored across parts of northern New England and persistence is maintained across the remainder of the existing drought areas.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



Abnormal dry conditions have been seen over parts of southwest and southeast Alaska. Below normal snowpack is also a concern across the southern tier of Alaska for the spring time melting. However, no drought conditions are currently present or favored to develop across Alaska for March due to forecast above normal precipitation across the state for March.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Hawaii Islands were also a mixed bag during the past month, with 1 to 2 class improvement seen on the western sides and 1 to 2 class degradation observed on the eastern sides. March is a climatological wet season for the Islands with the La Niñ\;a conditions typically favoring enhanced rainfall across the region. However, dynamical models predict dominated trades during March and this will keep rainfall focused mainly along the northeast-facing slopes, and much less on the existing drought areas. Therefore, persistence is most likely outcomes for most existing drought on the leeward sides, except the northeast half of Kauai, where removal is favored.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Hawaii.



No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during March across Puerto Rico.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop during March across the US Virgin Islands.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: March 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT