Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9. Nino 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

Notice: As of 1 February, 2026, sea surface temperature anomalies are now based on relative sea surface temperature anomalies for ENSO monitoring and forecasting. See NWS Public Information Statement 26-05.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch

 

Outlook: El Nino is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 Ð February 2027).

 

Discussion:

 

In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions continued, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18a). The monthly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.1C, with the westernmost (Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at +0.4C and +1.1C, respectively (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt). The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180-100W) increased for the sixth consecutive month, with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels and were evident over the central and east-central Pacific at upper levels (Figs. T20 & T21). Convection was near average on the equator near the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/rnino34Sea.gif), favors El Nino to form by next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. While confidence in the occurrence of El Nino has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Nino, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance. The strongest El Nino events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026. Stronger El Nino events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Nino is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 Ð February 2027).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Nino/La Ni–a Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).