Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9. Nino 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

Notice: As of 1 February, 2026, sea surface temperature anomalies are now based on relative sea surface temperature anomalies for ENSO monitoring and forecasting. See NWS Public Information Statement 26-05.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Advisory/El Nino Watch

 

Outlook: A transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Nino is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

 

Discussion:

 

La Nina continued in February 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18a). The monthly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.7C, with the westernmost (Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at -0.1C and +0.6C, respectively (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt). The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180-100W) continued to increase, reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific (Fig. T17). Over the east-central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly (Figs. T20 & T21). Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and convection was enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25). The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive (Figs. T1 & T2). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Nina.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/rnino34Sea.gif), points toward ENSO-neutral through the late Northern Hemisphere Spring 2026, with a transition to El Nino thereafter. Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Nino are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds. If El Nino forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be ÒstrongÓ during October-December 2026 (Nino-3.4 >= +1.5¡C). In summary, a transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Nino is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).