Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9. Nino 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

Notice: As of 1 February, 2026, sea surface temperature anomalies are now based on relative sea surface temperature anomalies for ENSO monitoring and forecasting. See NWS Public Information Statement 26-05.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Nina Advisory/El Nino Watch

 

Outlook: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Nino is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

 

Discussion:

 

During the last month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18a). The monthly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.5C, with the westernmost (Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at -0.1C and +1.0C, respectively (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt). The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180-100W) increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average subsurface temperatures extending across the Pacific (Fig. T17). Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels, and were evident over the eastern Pacific at high levels (Figs. T20 & T21). Convection was near average over the Date Line, with suppressed convection over western Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/rnino34Sea.gif), favors ENSO-neutral through April-June 2026, with a transition to El Nino thereafter. El Nino is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean. However, the possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Nino during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. The possibility of a very strong El Nino (1 in 4 chance of Nino-3.4 >= +2.0C) largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Nino is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).