Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9. Nino 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

Notice: As of 1 February, 2026, sea surface temperature anomalies are now based on relative sea surface temperature anomalies for ENSO monitoring and forecasting. See NWS Public Information Statement 26-05.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Advisory

 

Outlook: A transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026).

 

Discussion:

 

La Nina continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18a). The monthly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.9C, with the westernmost (Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at -0.4C and -0.6C, respectively (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt). The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180-100W) significantly increased, reflecting the strengthening and expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17). Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to sub-seasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Nina. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 & T21). Suppressed convection was weakly evident near the Date Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with enhanced convection located off the equator (Fig. T25). The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive (Figs. T1 & T2). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Nina.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/rnino34Sea.gif) favor the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team consensus also reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2026. For the late summer and beyond, there is a 50-60% chance of El Nino forming, though model uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy. In summary, a transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).