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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F11

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F12

NCEP Markov Model Forecasts of Eq. Pac. SST Anomalies

DECEMBER 2017

FIGURE F5.  Predicted 3-month average sea surface temperature anomalies from the NCEP/CPC Markov model (Xue et al. 2000, J. Climate, 13, 849-871). The forecast is initiated in DECEMBER 2017 . Contour interval is 0.3C and negative anomalies are indicated by dashed contours. Anomalies are calculated relative to the 1971-2000 climatology.