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Extratropical Highlights
NOVEMBER 2008
Forecast Forum
1. Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
pattern during November 2008 featured positive anomalies over western
North America
, the central
North Atlantic
, and central
Russia
, and negative anomalies over
Alaska
, the eastern
U.S.
, and southwestern
Europe
(Fig. E9). The pattern of surface
temperature anomalies closely resembled the mid-level circulation, with well
above average temperatures across western
North America
and central/ northern
Russia
, and below-average temperatures in western
Alaska
, the southeastern
U.S.
, southwestern
Europe
, and northwestern
Africa
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation
signals during November included below average totals in the central and eastern
U.S.
, and in portions of both southwestern and central
Russia
(Fig. E3)
a. North
Pacific/
North America
The 500-hPa
circulation during November featured an amplified wave pattern that extended
from
Alaska
to
Europe
. Aspects of this pattern included an amplified ridge across western
North America.
, and amplified troughs over
Alaska
and the eastern
U.S.
(Fig. E9).
The associated surface temperatures were above average across western
North America
, with the largest departures (3˚C – 5˚C) centered in western
Canada
. In contrast, temperatures were below-average in the southeastern quadrant of
the
U.S.
, with departures in many areas in the lowest 30th percentile of
occurrences (Fig. E1). The pattern of
precipitation anomalies also reflected the upper-air circulation, with below
average precipitation seen across the central and eastern
U.S.
in the area upstream of the mean trough axis, and above average precipitation
seen in western
Canada
upstream of the mean ridge axis (Fig. E3).
b.
Eurasia
The 500-hPa
circulation featured extensive areas of positive height anomalies over the
central
North Atlantic
and central
Russia
, and negative height anomalies over southern
Europe
(Fig. E9). This overall pattern was associated
with a significant poleward transport of heat into northern
Europe
, and with a pronounced northward shift of the mean jet stream across
Scandinavia
and
Russia
. These conditions contributed to a continuation of well above-average
temperatures across central and northern
Russia
, and to a slower-than-normal development of the Siberian snow pack. This
reduced snow cover likely contributed further to the anomalous warmth during the
last two months.
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height field
during November featured an anomalous zonal wave-3 pattern, with positive
anomalies across the central Ocean basins and negative anomalies across the high
latitudes of the North Pacific and southeastern
Australia
(Fig. E15). This pattern acted to expand
equatorward the circumpolar vortex over the North Pacific sector (Fig. S8
middle), contributing to an exceptionally persistent ozone hole (Fig. S8
bottom).
Land temperatures were
generally above average across
South America
, with the largest departures (exceeding 3˚C) observed in
Uruguay
and east-central
Argentina
(Fig. E1). These regions also experienced
exceptionally dry conditions during November (Fig.
E3). In contrast, precipitation was above average
over southeastern
Brazil
. This dipole pattern of rainfall anomalies was linked to a strong ridge
centered off the east coast, which contributed to an extensive onshore flow at
850-hPa into southeastern Brazil (Fig. T20)
and at the same time produced strong sinking motion over
Uruguay
.
Much of
Australia
recorded above average precipitation during November, with the largest
departures observed in the central and southern parts of the continent (Fig. E3).
This enhanced precipitation was related to the anomalous mid-latitude
circulation, occurring downstream of the mean upper-level trough and also within
the left entrance region of the jet stream (Figs. T21, T22).
In southern
Africa
, the rainy season extends from October through April. During November, rainfall
was above average for the region as a whole, with area average totals exceeding
the 80th percentile of occurrences (Fig.
E4). The most significant surpluses were recorded
in the West, particularly in
Namibia
where totals exceeded the 90th percentile (Fig. E3). In contrast, rainfall remained
well below average in central
Mozambique
, following a slow start to the 2008-09 rainy season in October.
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