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Extratropical Highlights
NOVEMBER 2007
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height field during November featured an anomalous zonal wave-3
pattern, with positive anomalies over the western half of the
U.S.
, the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, and central
Russia
, and negative anomalies over the high latitudes of the central North Pacific
Ocean, eastern
Canada
, and eastern Europe (Fig. E9). At 200-hPa cyclonic
circulation anomalies were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres across
the eastern half of the tropical
Pacific Ocean
(Figs. T21, T22).
This pattern is consistent with La Niņa.
The main surface temperature departures during November reflected warmer than
average conditions in
Alaska
, the southwestern
U.S.
, and central
Russia
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation anomalies included
below average totals across much of the
United States
and portions of eastern
China
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
Regional
aspects of the anomalous zonal wave-3 pattern at 500-hPa included below average
heights over the high latitudes of the North Pacific, and eastern Canada, and
above-average heights across the western half of the United States extending
northward into extreme western Canada (Fig. E9). This
pattern was associated with anomalous southerly flow into
Alaska
, which led to well above-average surface temperatures across much of the state.
The largest departures were observed in central
Alaska
, where temperatures were more than 5°C above average.
In
the continental
U.S.
, the anomalous upper-level ridge contributed to above-average temperatures in
the Southwest. Also, a broad area of anomalous upper-level convergence (Fig.
T23) and descending motion between the anomalous ridge and the downstream
trough axis led to below-average precipitation across large portions of the
country (Fig. E3). Area-averaged totals were in the
lowest 10th percentile of occurrences in many regions, including the
Pacific Northwest, Inter-Mountain, Great Plains,
Midwest
,
Ohio
Valley, Southeast,
Gulf
Coast
, and mid-Atlantic regions (Fig. E5). Ongoing precipitation deficits further
exacerbated drought conditions in large portions of the Inter-mountain region
and the southeastern
U.S.
2.
Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height field during November featured an anomalous zonal wave-3
pattern, with above-average heights in the area south of
Australia
, over the high latitudes of the eastern South Pacific, and over the central
South Atlantic, and below-average heights in the area southeast of
New Zealand
, over the western South Atlantic, and over the central
Indian Ocean
(Fig. E15). At 200-hPa positive (cyclonic)
streamfunction anomalies covered the central and eastern tropical
South Pacific Ocean
(Fig. T22). This pattern reflected an
enhanced mid-Pacific trough consistent with La Niņa (Fig.
T21).
The
South African rainy season extends from October to April, and is often stronger
than average during La Niņa. During November, above-average totals were
observed in the extreme southern and northeastern parts of the monsoon region.
Area-averaged totals for the entire monsoon region were in the upper 80th
percentile of occurrences for the second straight month (Fig.
E4).
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