Extratropical Highlights
OCTOBER 2008
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The
500-hPa height pattern during October 2008 featured positive anomalies in the
middle latitudes and negative anomalies at high latitudes (Fig. E9).
The main areas of positive anomalies included the central North Pacific, much of
North America
, the eastern
North Atlantic
, and northern
Asia
. The main areas of negative anomalies included
Alaska
, the high latitudes of the
North Atlantic
, and the polar region. Surface temperatures during October were above average
across northern
Canada
, much of
Russia
, and
Siberia
, and below-average in
Alaska
(Fig. E1). Rainfall was above average
in the central
U.S.
and portions of northern
Europe
, and below average along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Great Lakes Region, and
portions of southern
Europe
(Fig. E3)
a. North Pacific/
North America
In
the middle latitudes, the mean 500-hPa circulation during October featured
above-average heights from the central North Pacific to the western
United States
(Fig. E9). At high latitudes the circulation
featured a deep trough over
Alaska
, along with large positive height anomalies over central
Canada
in association with a disappearance of the mean
Hudson Bay
trough. This pattern was associated with well below-average temperatures over
Alaska
, and above-average temperatures in central and eastern
Canada
(Fig. E3).
b.
Eurasia
The
500-hPa circulation featured above-average heights over the eastern
North Atlantic
, western
Russia
, and much of
Siberia
, and below-average heights across the high latitudes of the
North Atlantic
and
Scandinavia
(Fig. E9). This overall pattern was associated
with a significant poleward transport of heat into northern
Europe
, and a pronounced northward shift of the mean jet stream across
Scandinavia
and
Russia
. This pattern contributed to well above-average temperatures from eastern
Europe to eastern
Siberia
(Fig. E3). It also contributed to a
slower-than-normal development of the Siberian snow pack, which likely further
contributed to the anomalous warmth across northern
Asia
.
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
field during October featured positive anomalies across the central South
Pacific and southern
Australia
, and negative anomalies across the high latitudes of the North Pacific and much
of
Antarctica
(Fig. E15). This pattern reflected an
equatorward expansion of the circumpolar vortex. In the stratosphere, this
expanded vortex (Fig. S8 middle) allowed for an
extensive polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) cover to be maintained (Fig. S8
bottom). The PSC’s developed during the past few months in association
with record low temperatures at both 2-hPa and 10 hPa (Fig. S4).
These conditions led to an above average size of the Antarctic ozone hole (Fig.
S8 top, Fig. S6 bottom),
which reached a peak extent of 25 million square kilometers in mid-September.
Extratropical land
surface temperatures were generally above average in all three continents during
October (Fig. E1). The most significant
anomalies were recorded in southeastern
Australia
in association with an anomalous upper-level ridge. That region also
experienced well below-average precipitation during the month, with many areas
recording totals in the lowest 10th percentile of occurrences (Fig.
E3).
In southern
Africa
, the rainy season normally extends from October through April. The 2008-09
rainy season started off slowly, with the lowest area-averaged totals for
October recorded since 1979 (Figs. E4, E3).
Rainfall in much of the monsoon region was in the lowest 30th
percentile of occurrences, with isolated areas recording totals in the lowest 10th
percentile of occurrences.
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