Tropical Highlights
JUNE 2011
Forecast Forum
ENSO-neutral
conditions continued during June 2011 as sea surface temperatures were
near-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
except the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.
T18, Table T2).
The latest monthly Ni�o indices were -0.2�C for the Ni�o
3.4 region and +0.9�C for the Ni�o
1+2 region (Table T2, Fig. T5).
Consistent with these conditions, the oceanic thermocline (measured by
the depth of the 20�C
isotherm) remained slightly deeper than average in the eastern equatorial
Pacific (Figs. T15 and
T16), with sub-surface temperatures
reaching 1-2�C
above average in this region (Fig. T17).
However,
the atmospheric circulation patterns during June continued to show some weak La
Ni�a impacts.
The equatorial low-level easterly trade winds and upper-level westerly
winds remained stronger than average over the central equatorial Pacific (Table T1, Figs.
T20 and T21),
while convection remained enhanced over eastern Indonesia and suppressed across
the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T25
and E3).
Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral
conditions but with weakening La Ni�a impacts in the atmosphere.
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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