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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F9

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F10

Canonical Correlation Forecast for Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season Lead

APRIL 2022

FIGURE F2.  Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) forecast of sea-surface temperature anomalies for the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120W-170W) for the upcoming year of three-month overlapping periods. The CCA predictions are based on anomaly patterns of sea level pressure, tropical Pacific SST, and heat content of the upper 300 meters of the near-equator tropical Pacific (10S to 10N). Small squares at the midpoints of the vertical forecast bars represent the CCA predictions, and the bars show the one (thick) and two (thin) standard deviation errors. The triangles and line represent the observed three-month mean SST anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region up to the most recently available data.