Tropical Highlights
MARCH 2011
Forecast Forum
La
Niņa continued to weaken during March 2011 as the magnitude of the negative sea
surface temperature anomalies continued to decrease across much of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig.
T18, Table T2).
The latest monthly Niņo indices were -1.0°C for the Niņo
3.4 region and -0.4°C for the Niņo
1+2 region (Table T2,
Fig. T5).
Consistent with these conditions, the oceanic thermocline (measured by
the depth of the 20°C
isotherm) became slightly deeper than average over the eastern equatorial
Pacific during March (Figs. T15 and
T16), with sub-surface temperatures
reaching 1°C
above average in this region (Fig. T17).
However,
the atmospheric circulation patterns during March continued to show La Niņa
impacts. The equatorial low-level
easterly trade winds remained stronger than average over the western and central
Pacific (Table T1,
Fig. T20),
while convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed across the
western and central equatorial Pacific (Figs.
T25 and E3).
Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a weakening La Niņa.
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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