Forecast Forum
The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J.
Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2.
This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate
Prediction Center. The predictions from the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model
(CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et
al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5
and F6. Predictions from the latest
version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27,
2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea
1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig.
F9. Niño 3.4 predictions are
summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction
Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
skill.
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/ La Niña
Watch
Outlook: A transition from El Niño to
ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La
Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).
Discussion:
During February 2024, sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).
In the last week, below-average SSTs emerged in a small region of the eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean (~100W). Most monthly Niño indices weakened but
remained positive, with Niño-3.4 standing at 1.5C (Table T2). Area-averaged subsurface
temperature anomalies were slightly negative, reflecting the consequences of an
upwelling Kelvin wave and associated below-average temperatures across the
equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17). Low-level winds were near average
over most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly
over the east-central Pacific (Figs. T20 & T21).
Convection was enhanced near the Date Line and was suppressed near Indonesia (Fig. T25).
Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El
Niño.
The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to
ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during
summer 2024 (Figs. F1-F12). While
different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team
favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for
forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the
spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La
Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to
ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La
Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).
Weekly
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).