Forecast Forum
The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1
and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the
Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System
Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871)
are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652)
are shown in Fig. F9. Niño 3.4
predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and
Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
skill.
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Outlook:
La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53%
chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or
ENSO-neutral thereafter.
Discussion:
Below-average
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the
central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching
from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The monthly Niño-3.4 index was -0.7C, while
the other Niño SST regions were between -0.2C and -1.4C (Table T2). Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged
between 180-100W and 0-300m depth) were near zero, as the recent warming
associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has
attenuated. Below-average temperatures
have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150W (Fig. T17). Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened
during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds
across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining
over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Figs. T20 & T21).
Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while
convection was enhanced near Indonesia (Fig.
T25).
Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation
of La Niña.
The
IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a
transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring (Figs. F1-F12). This month, the forecaster consensus favors a
slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling,
which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art
climate models. For the summer and
beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters
lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La
Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue
into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with
a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter.
Weekly
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).