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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

FEBRUARY 2008

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

     Outlook:  

            La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.    

      Discussion:    

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during February 2008 continued to reflect a strong La Niña.  Equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C below average across large portions of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18), and the corresponding monthly values of the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were −1.6°C and −1.9°C, respectively (Table T2). In contrast, SSTs in the far eastern equatorial Pacific were above average in association with a warming trend that began in mid-December. The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the oceans between 180° - 100°W) remained below average across the equatorial Pacific during February, with the largest temperature anomalies averaging −2°C to −5°C at thermocline depth (Fig. T17).  Consistent with these oceanic conditions, stronger-than-average low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21), convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific (Fig. T25). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those accompanying the last strong La Niña episode during 1998-2000.  

The most recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region continue to indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niña through March 2008, and a weaker La Niña through April-May-June 2008 (Figs. F1-F13). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the forecasts, with approximately one-half indicating that La Niña could continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent observed trends support the likely continuation of La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).