Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022).

 

Discussion:  

 

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened during January 2022, though anomalies stayed negative across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  Most of the monthly ENSO indices remained between -0.9C and -1.4C, except for the Niño-4 index, which was -0.4C (Table T2).  In contrast, subsurface temperatures (averaged between 180-100W and 0-300m depth) trended to near average during the month.  This large change in recent weeks reflected the eastward progression of a downwelling Kelvin wave, as indicated by the extension of above-average subsurface temperatures across much of the Pacific (Fig. T17).  Below-average subsurface temperatures were confined to the eastern Pacific Ocean at the end of the month.  For the monthly mean, low-level equatorial winds were near average across much of the Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. T20 & T21).  Below-average convection strengthened near and west of the Date Line, while convection was near average over Indonesia (Fig. T25).  Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening La Niña. 

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring (Figs. F1-F12).  Because the easterly trade winds have recently been strengthening and are predicted to continue in the near term, the forecaster consensus favors those models suggesting a slower decay of La Niña through the spring.  However, ENSO-neutral is still anticipated to return by the Northern Hemisphere summer, although the chance does not exceed 57% during June-August 2022, reflecting the uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier.  In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).