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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Linear Inverse Modeling Forecasts for Nino 3.4 Region

Cecile Penland, NOAA/CDC

JANUARY 2011

FIGURE F10.  Predictions of Nino 3.4 SSTA (blue solid line) and verification (solid red line). The Nino 3.44 Index was calculated in the area 6N-6S, 170W-120W. The 1981-2010 climatology was sub- tracted from ERSST data between 1950 and 2010, after which they were projected onto 20 EOFs containing 90% of the variance. Significant 1950-2010 trends were subtracted from the corresponding PCs, the forecast was made on the detrended anomalies, after which the trend was added to the forecast. Cross-validated forecasts for 2001-2010 are not shown because that decade was necessary to get a good estimate of the trend, thus precluding legitimate cross- validation. Cross-validated forecasts shown before 2001 use trends estimated using data outside the verification period.