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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

JANUARY 2008

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

     Outlook:  

            La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.    

      Discussion:    

Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate that La Niña has continued to strengthen in the tropical Pacific.  By the end of January 2008, equatorial SST anomalies were more than 2.0°C below average across parts of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).  Other than the far eastern Niño-1+2 region, the magnitude of the cold anomalies in the Niño region indices increased during the past month with the latest monthly values near −1.5°C (Table T2).  The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the oceans) also decreased further during January, and negative subsurface anomalies between −2°C to −5°C expanded westward towards the Date Line (Fig. T17).  Consistent with these oceanic conditions, stronger-than-average low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21), convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific (Fig. T25).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those accompanying the last strong La Niña episode in 1998-2000.  

The recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niña through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter, with the likely continuation of a weaker La Niña through April-May-June (Figs. F1-F13). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the models, with approximately one-half indicating La Niña could continue well into the Northern Hemisphere summer.  Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends are consistent with the likely continuation of La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).