Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are present, as 
equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the 
tropical Pacific Ocean. The latest Niño 3.4 weekly departure was +0.1 degrees 
Celsius, which is squarely in ENSO-neutral territory. As such, ENSO-neutral 
conditions are most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56 
percent chance in August-October (ASO)). Thereafter, chances of La Niña 
conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to 
ENSO-Neutral. The chances of El Niño are very small (around 10 percent or less) 
through the rest of the summer, the fall, and the upcoming winter. 
 
The ASO 2025 Temperature Outlook favors above-normal temperatures for almost 
the entire country. The largest probabilities (greater than 50 percent) of 
above-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the interior West, 
Northeast, and southern Florida, with probabilities exceeding 60 percent for 
much of New England. Near-normal temperatures are more likely for eastern 
portions of the Alaska North Slope. The ASO 2025 Precipitation Outlook depicts 
enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation amounts across much of the 
northern Plains, Rockies, and Great Basin. Above-normal precipitation is more 
likely for much of the eastern third of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) 
and most of Alaska. The greatest chances (above 40 percent) of above-normal 
precipitation are indicated for the Southeast and portions of central Mainland 
Alaska. Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each 
category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation 
amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
During June 2025, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface 
temperatures prevailing across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest 
weekly Niño SST index values ranged from +0.1°C to +0.4°C. Subsurface 
temperature anomalies were weakly positive and nearly unchanged from last 
month, with mostly above-average temperatures established along the 
thermocline. Over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, 
low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were 
westerly. Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia. Collectively, the 
coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflected ENSO-neutral. 
 
Dynamical models depict a robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerging 
across the Western Pacific in mid- to late-July, with eastward propagation into 
the Western Hemisphere possible by the end of the month. Increased tropical 
cyclone (TC) activity remains likely across the Western North Pacific during 
the next 2 weeks tied to the aforementioned enhanced low frequency convective 
signal. The developing MJO favors increasing chances of TC development 
spreading into the Eastern North Pacific toward the end of July into early 
August ending the current lull in TC activity across the Basin. While the 
Atlantic is likely to continue to remain quiet in terms of TC activity for the 
next few weeks, signs point to this MJO event reaching a more favorable 
position in early- to mid-August, possibly leading to increased chances of TC 
formation coinciding with the uptick in climatology across the Main Development 
Region. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The International Research Institute (IRI) predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is 
most likely through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26. In contrast, the 
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favors the onset of La Niña 
conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall, though lasting a shorter 
duration than NOAA's requirement of five consecutive overlapping 3-month 
seasons. While the subsurface equatorial Pacific remains above average, 
easterly trade winds are predicted to strengthen in the coming month, which 
could portend cooler conditions. In summary, ENSO-neutral is most likely 
through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in ASO). 
Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 
2025-26, but remain nearly equal to ENSO-neutral. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, the Coupled Forecast System Model 
Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Copernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system were 
used extensively for the first six leads when they are available, as was the 
objective, historical skill weighted consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, 
and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that combines both dynamical and statistical 
forecast information. 
 
Antecedent boundary layer conditions such as soil moisture, sea ice extent, and 
extratropical SSTs were utilized where appropriate. Additionally, the official 
ENSO forecast favors ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions through the upcoming 
winter. The anticipated absence of El Niño played a role in the construction of 
these outlooks. Composites derived from nearest neighbor statistical analysis 
of recently observed tropical Pacific SST and Equatorial heat anomalies were 
utilized when relevant. At later leads, decadal trends  in temperature and 
precipitation were increasingly relied upon in creating the seasonal outlooks. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - ASO 2025 TO ASO 2026 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
One of the main headlines for the late summer and early fall is the potential 
for widespread warmth as above-normal temperatures are favored for virtually 
the entire nation. This is not particularly surprising given that the ASO 
period has among the largest coverage of warm trends  of any three month period 
of the year. These warm trends  are particularly strong in the Northeast, the 
interior West, and southern Florida, where probabilities of above-normal 
temperatures exceed 50 percent. In the Northeast, above-normal SSTs in the 
adjacent Atlantic support even greater confidence (above 60 percent chance) of 
above-normal temperatures for much of New England. Enhanced chances of 
above-normal temperatures are relatively lower from the Northern Plains to 
parts of the Southeast where warm trends  are comparatively weak. Additionally 
the soil moisture tool features a probability minimum for portions of the 
Central Plains and adjacent Mississippi Valley where above-normal temperature 
probabilities are only 33 to 40 percent. Dynamical models  such as the NMME also 
depict more uncertainty for parts of the Northern Plains, where probabilities 
of above-normal temperatures are also only 33 to 40 percent. SSTs are currently 
colder than normal along much of the West Coast and dynamical models  such as 
the NMME depict a weaker warm signal there, so confidence of above-normal 
temperatures is less along the coast relative to inland areas. Probabilities of 
above-normal temperatures are less than 40 percent along much of the central 
and southern California coast. Uncertainty is also high for northeastern 
Alaska, which is one of the few areas of the country where above-normal 
temperatures are not favored. The current distribution of Arctic sea ice is not 
as conducive for abnormal warmth across eastern areas of the North Slope 
relative to areas farther to the west. For this reason, near-normal 
temperatures are favored for eastern areas of the North Slope, while 
above-normal temperatures are more likely for western areas. Above-normal 
temperatures are favored for most of the remainder of Alaska, with the greatest 
confidence across the southeastern portion of the state, consistent with recent 
trends. 
 
As we progress to the core fall season (September-November (SON) and 
October-December (OND)), warm trends  continue to dominate much of the nation 
while early impacts from the anticipated lack of El Niño begin to affect the 
forecast pattern later in Fall. Above normal temperatures continue to be 
favored for most of the nation in both SON and OND, consistent with trends . The 
most confident areas of above-normal temperatures are across the Great 
Basin/Central Rockies (SON), areas of the Southwest and Southern High Plains 
(OND), and the Northeast (SON and OND), consistent with recent trends . 
Uncertainty increases across the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest where EC 
is indicated as trends  weaken later in Fall and increased ENSO impacts 
potentially take hold. This increase in uncertainty is supported by the NMME 
which has a weak signal across much of the Northern Tier of the CONUS. 
Above-normal temperatures are favored for most of the northern two-thirds of 
Alaska in both SON and OND, consistent with recent trends . However, near-normal 
temperatures continue to be favored for eastern areas of the North Slope due 
largely to sea ice considerations. Confidence decreases for most of the 
southern third of Alaska where trends  are relatively weaker and ENSO impacts 
may decrease above-normal temperature chances later in Fall. 
 
During the cold seasons (November-January (NDJ), December-February (DJF), 
January-March (JFM), and February-April (FMA)) the anticipated lack of El Niño 
is a main driver informing the forecast. As there is roughly a 90 percent 
probability that El Niño conditions will not be present during the winter, the 
forecast patterns resemble those more typical of La Niña. Most of the nation is 
favored to experience above-normal temperatures in NDJ as warm trends  continue 
to dominate much of the country. As we get deeper in the winter season, ENSO 
impacts become more evident. The first cold signals  appear in DJF across the 
Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, consistent with a lack of El Niño. A 
tilt toward below-normal temperatures then appears in JFM over parts of the 
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley and peaks in coverage across the 
Northern Tier west of the Great Lakes in FMA. Conversely, the Southern Tier of 
the CONUS is consistently favored to be warmer than usual, typical of a lack of 
El Niño. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for the East Coast due to 
warm recent trends  during the core winter months. Alaska is generally favored 
to be warmer than normal across the western and northern Mainland and colder 
than normal over Southeast Alaska, consistent with the predicted ENSO state. 
 
Looking ahead to next spring and summer, the pattern is almost exclusively 
informed by recent trends . As we get deeper into the warm season, the outlook 
favors increased chances of warmer than normal conditions in a U-shaped pattern 
covering the western, southern, and eastern CONUS. Warmer than normal 
conditions are favored for western Mainland Alaska during spring and then 
shifting more toward the eastern part of the state by summer. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The ASO period falls squarely within the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. 
With an above-normal Atlantic Hurricane season forecast, tropical activity will 
be a key wildcard in the precipitation distribution along the Gulf and East 
Coasts and adjacent inland areas. Above-normal precipitation is favored along 
much of the Eastern Seaboard westward to the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
generally following guidance from the final consolidation tool. The northward 
extension of the above-normal area is consistent with recent trends  while the 
western extension to the central Gulf Coast has some support from the C3S and 
is consistent with potential enhanced tropical activity associated with an 
above-normal Atlantic Hurricane season. Conversely, below-normal precipitation 
is favored from the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley to the 
Northern and Central Rockies and parts of the Great Basin. These areas of 
favored dryness are consistent with the final consolidation, recent trends , and 
below-normal soil moisture. Above-normal precipitation is favored for most of 
Alaska, consistent with the NMME and recent trends . 
 
The fall season (SON and OND) features a transition from greater topical 
influences early to greater ENSO influences late. During early fall (SON), 
enhanced above-normal precipitation chances continue along much of the East 
Coast, consistent with potential increased tropical activity and with the 
preceding ASO forecast period. Slightly enhanced above-normal precipitation 
probabilities extend westward to the Ohio Valley, with support from the CBaM 
tool. Conversely, a dry signal is favored for much of the west-central CONUS 
due to a combination of recent trends  and dynamical model support. Later in 
fall (OND), the forecast pattern increasingly begins to resemble a La-Niña-like 
signature, with above-normal precipitation favored for the Pacific Northwest 
and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and a tilt toward below-normal precipitation 
spreading across the Southern Tier. A slight tilt toward above-normal 
precipitation is forecast for much of Mainland Alaska in (SON) and increases in 
coverage later in fall (OND), consistent with recent trends . 
 
During the cold three-month periods (NDJ, DJF, JFM, and FMA), the predicted 
precipitation patterns were remarkably consistent and typical of a lack of El 
Niño. The core winter months (DJF and JFM) feature increased chances of 
above-normal precipitation for the Northern Rockies and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley 
with dryness more likely across the Southern Tier of the CONUS. Above-normal 
precipitation is favored for Northern Alaska during late fall/early winter 
shifting more toward western Mainland Alaska as the winter progresses. 
 
During next spring and summer, recent trends  favor dryness across the Southwest 
early, then shifting to the northwestern CONUS and eventually to parts of the 
Northern Plains during the warmer months. Slightly elevated chances of 
above-normal precipitation are indicated for much of the East during the core 
summer months. Above-normal precipitation is favored for northwestern Alaska 
during spring, then shifting to central and southern parts of the Mainland 
during summer. 
 
FORECASTER: Scott Handel 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Aug 21 2025 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$