Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Wed November 20 2024 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2024 
 
During the 6-10 day period models remain in fairly good agreement relative to  
yesterday on an amplified and progressive mid-level height pattern across North  
America and the surrounding regions. Strong positive 500-hPa height anomalies  
are forecast to be centered over the Gulf of Alaska consistent with yesterday.  
Meanwhile, a fast moving mid-level trough is forecast to progress from the  
Interior West across much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the 6-10 day  
period. This trough will displace positive mid-level height anomalies across  
the southeastern CONUS as the period progresses leaving the positive 6-10 day  
mean height anomalies only in the southeastern and south-central CONUS.  
 
Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the southern and  
southeastern CONUS during the 6-10 day period beneath positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. There is good agreement  
between the raw, short-term bias-corrected, and reforecast tools from the GEFS  
and ECENS across these regions. Below-normal temperature chances are enhanced  
across much of the western CONUS and into the Northern and Central Plains. This  
is consistent with dynamical and statistical guidance. Near-normal temperatures  
are favored as a period average in the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast as  
below-normal temperatures move into the region during the period. In Alaska, a  
mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska brings southwesterly flow into portions  
of southern Mainland Alaska. Near- to below-normal temperatures are favored for  
northwest Mainland and Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, tools are in very strong  
agreement for above-normal temperatures. 
 
A generally wet pattern is predicted across the CONUS during the 6-10 day  
period. The strongest chances are across portions of the Central Rockies with  
the mid-level trough forecast to be further inland relative to yesterday. The  
more easterly progression of the mid-level trough reduces chances for  
above-normal precipitation along the immediate West Coast and into the Great  
Basin relative to yesterday. In the East above-normal precipitation chances are  
forecast across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Return flow off the  
Gulf of Mexico is forecast to interact with the progressive mid-level trough  
bringing increased chances for precipitation. Near-normal precipitation is  
favored across portions of Florida and the Rio Grande Valley, in areas further  
removed from the mean storm track. In Alaska, a relatively wet pattern is  
forecast with southwesterly flow into Mainland Alaska. Near- to below-normal  
precipitation is favored in Southeast Alaska with mid-level high pressure to  
the West. In Hawaii, below-normal precipitation is favored consistent with  
reforecast and bias-corrected tools. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5. Good  
agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools is offset by a progressive  
and shifting pattern. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2024  
 
The progressive mid-level trough is forecast to move east across the CONUS  
early in week-2 and then stall across portions of the northeastern CONUS by the  
end of the week. Positive mid-level heights are forecast off the West Coast and  
across much of Alaska bringing northwesterly flow across the eastern CONUS for  
much of week-2. The enhanced positive mid-level anomalies across the Gulf of  
Alaska brings southwesterly flow over Mainland Alaska.  
 
Below-normal temperature chances are forecast for much of the CONUS during  
week-2 beneath mid-level troughing and northwesterly flow aloft. Above-normal  
temperature chances for the CONUS are limited to portions of Florida. The  
strongest probabilities for below-normal temperatures are favored across  
portions of the Northern Plains. Weakening agreement among the tools has  
reduced confidence in the below-normal temperatures across the southwestern  
CONUS relative to yesterday. In Alaska, the southwesterly flow pattern aloft  
brings chances for above-normal temperatures. A complicating factor in the  
forecast is the potential for low-level inversions to develop due to the low  
solar heating at this time of year, reducing the confidence in above-normal  
temperature chances. Near-normal to below-normal temperatures are favored  
across northwestern Mainland Alaska and in Southeast. In Hawaii, above-normal  
temperatures remain forecast consistent with the available guidance. 
 
The precipitation outlook for the CONUS is quite uncertain at this time with  
the ECENS and GEFS forecasting very different outcomes across much of the  
CONUS. The GEFS is quite a bit drier with below-normal precipitation in much of  
the northwestern CONUS and north-central CONUS. However, in these locations the  
ECENS reforecast and raw model guidance bring increased probabilities for  
above-normal precipitation. As such, only low probabilities are forecast across  
most of the CONUS today. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored in  
parts of the Rockies and Northern and Central Plains. A second area for  
above-normal precipitation is over parts of the Great Lakes, extending south  
through the eastern CONUS towards the Gulf Coast. The mid-level trough  
progressing through the area at the onset of the period may bring some forcing  
for precipitation to these areas. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for  
parts of California and the Four Corners where the raw model guidance is in  
agreement. Elsewhere, near-normal is forecast with disagreements among the  
tools limiting confidence. In Alaska, above-normal is slightly favored across  
south-central and southeast Mainland Alaska where there is the best model  
agreement among the tools. In Hawaii, near-normal precipitation is forecast. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered  
on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%  
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below-Average, 2 out of 5, with  
divergent solutions among the model guidance for temperature and precipitation  
reducing confidence. 
 
FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
November 21. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19731126 - 19941112 - 19731119 - 19731114 - 20031117 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19731126 - 19731118 - 19611124 - 19631114 - 19731201 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Nov 26 - 30 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Nov 28 - Dec 04, 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    B      
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    N      
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N      
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$