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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: May 07 - 11, 2024 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 09 - 15, 2024 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 01, 2024 |
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Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 11 2024
The ECENS and GEFS predicted 500-hPa heights continue to be in fairly good
agreement with the Canadian ensemble mean remaining the outlier today. Negative
500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across Alaska, the western and northern
contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and New England. Near- to above-normal 500-hPa heights
are forecast across the southeastern CONUS. The negative mid-level height
anomalies across the West are forecast to progress eastward across the northern
tier during the period. Positive anomalies across the eastern Pacific may
intrude into parts of the Northwest by the end of the 6-10 day period, reducing
the mean heights across the Northwest relative to yesterday.
Mid-level ridging across the southeastern CONUS is forecast to bring
above-normal temperatures to much of the eastern CONUS during the 6-10 day
period. The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures remains across the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic ahead of any potential frontal systems
associated with the negative 500-hPa height anomalies forecast to progress
across the CONUS later in the period. There is reduced confidence in
above-normal temperatures in parts of the western Great Lakes where the
mid-level trough is forecast to influence by the end of the period. In the
West, below-normal temperatures are generally favored with the highest
probabilities across parts of the northern Great Basin. In Alaska, below-normal
temperatures are likely across the Alaska Peninsula and southwestern Mainland.
In Southeast Alaska, below-normal temperatures are slightly favored. The
interior Mainland is forecast to see near-normal temperatures. In Hawaii,
below-normal temperatures are favored beneath mid-level troughing.
As the mid-level trough, initially along the West Coast, progresses eastward
above normal precipitation is forecast beneath and just ahead of the trough
bringing above-normal precipitation chances to much of the northern two-thirds
of the CONUS. The ECENS reforecast brings stronger above-normal precipitation
chances into southeastern CONUS while the GEFS reforecast tends to be a bit
weaker in its probabilities and in general has stronger chances for
below-normal precipitation across the southern tier. This drier solution is
supported by the raw model guidance and analog tools. The strongest
probabilities for below-normal precipitation remain across portions of Florida
and the Rio Grande Valley. In Alaska, anomalously below-normal 500-hPa heights
supports above-normal precipitation across much of the state. A slight tilt
towards above-normal precipitation is favored across much of Hawaii with
negative 500-hPa height anomalies forecast.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 10%
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 5 out of 5, Due to
good agreement among the dynamical model tools.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 09 - 15 2024
The 0Z GEFS and 0Z ECMWF ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement with a
longwave trough shifting eastward from the western to east-central CONUS during
the second week of May. The 0Z Canadian ensemble mean favors a more persistent
longwave pattern with a continuation of the mid-level trough closer to the West
Coast, while GEFS and ECENS build an area of ridging into portions of the West.
Since the 0Z Canadian ensemble mean is an outlier, its solution was not
included in the manual 500-hPa height blend. If the mid-latitude flow pattern
becomes more progressive by mid-May, then a trough may be replaced by more
ridging along the West Coast. The 0Z GEFS and 0Z ECMWF ensemble means agree on
a stronger than normal subtropical ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
Above-normal temperatures remain favored across the southeastern CONUS during
the 8-14 day period. The strongest probabilities are forecast closest to the
Gulf Coast, near the abnormally strong subtropical ridge. A weakening trough is
forecast across the interior Mountain West for much of the period. This may
bring unsettled weather to the region and generally cooler temperatures. As
this trough progresses east it will displace warmer than normal conditions
ahead of it. Therefore, near-normal temperatures are forecast for the Great
Lakes and Northeast. Along the West Coast, a slight tilt towards above-normal
temperatures is favored as ridging is forecast to begin building into the
region during week-2. In Alaska, below-normal temperatures are favored across
much of the state with the strongest chances forecast across the southern
portions of the state. In Hawaii, below-normal temperatures are forecast with
below-normal heights favored over the state.
The precipitation forecast across the country is less certain than the
temperature forecast. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific
Northwest and parts of northern California with ridging building into the
region. Generally, unsettled weather is forecast across the Rockies and into
the Plains through to the eastern seaboard as the trough begins to progress
eastward. The strongest chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast
from Central Texas through the Middle-Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys
as a somewhat stationary front may become established and may help to focus
additional precipitation into these regions. In Florida, near to below-normal
precipitation is favored during the climatologically driest time of the year.
In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is generally favored across the state
with unsettled weather beneath a mid-level trough continuing. Meanwhile,
above-normal precipitation is again slightly favored for Hawaii consistent with
the consolidation of tools.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 10%
of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 4 out of 5, Good
agreement in the model tools offset slightly by the progressive pattern leading
to differences in timing among the tools.
FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt
Notes:
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on May
16.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19850422 - 19860427 - 19730418 - 19550414 - 19570425
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19730419 - 19550413 - 19850422 - 19990514 - 20080418
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for May 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for May 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N N NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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