Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November and November-December-January (NDJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for NDJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on October 15, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



A wet climatology, favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, and the NDJ outlook tilting wet support drought improvement or removal for the Pacific Northwest and the northern Intermountain West. Farther to the east across the high Plains of eastern Montana, persistence is likely as that region heads into a dry time of year. Based on the NDJ outlook favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, persistence and development are forecast for much of the Southwest. Northern New Mexico is not included in the development due to 30 and 90-day precipitation at or above-average and predicted heavy precipitation from October 18-20. Since the NDJ outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation during an increasingly wet time of year and given the wet winters of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, development is not forecast across California at this time.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West Region.



A very dry September along with unseasonably warm temperatures have led to rapidly developing drought across the northern to central Great Plains. 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 4 inches across central to eastern Nebraska and parts of eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, severe to extreme drought has expanded across the western Dakotas and eastern Wyoming. Since NDJ is a relatively dry time of year (typically only 5 to 10 percent of the annual precipitation), broad-scale persistence is likely for the northern to central Great Plains. Development is most likely for southwestern Colorado where there are increasing 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits and the NDJ outlook favors below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.



Forecast confidence is high for the High Plains Region.



Since the drought improving rainfall associated with Hurricane Francine during mid-September, drier weather returned to the Lower Mississippi Valley with 30-day precipitation deficits of more than 3 inches for much of this region. Short-term dryness coupled with above-normal temperatures has led to the rapid onset and intensification of drought across portions of the Southern Great Plains. Based on the NDJ outlook favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, drought persistence and development are likely throughout much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains. Given that 30 to 90-day precipitation is at or above-average across northeastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and northwestern Oklahoma, drought development is omitted for those areas.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South Region.



Drought expanded and intensified across the Ohio Valley this past summer. However, rainfall associated with the remnants of Helene along with the recent cooler temperatures has helped to end the worsening conditions across Ohio. For the Great Lakes region and Upper Mississippi Valley, drought worsened due to increasing 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits and unseasonably warm temperatures during September. As the climatology becomes increasingly dry the next few months and with the lack of a strong wet signal in the seasonal tools, broad-scale persistence is favored for the Upper Mississippi Valley. Based on the NDJ outlook favoring above-normal precipitation along with a favorable time of year for improving drought with cooler temperatures, improvement or removal is forecast for Michigan. Since soil moisture typically increases from mid-October until the end of January and there are equal chances for below, near, or above normal precipitation during NDJ, improvement is also forecast for eastern Illinois, northern Indiana, and Ohio which has a wetter climatology compared to areas of the Upper Mississippi Valley.



Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.



Following major drought improvement associated with heavy rainfall from Helene, dry weather has returned to much of the Southeast. Development is forecast for parts of the Coastal Plain of Georgia and South Carolina which missed the heavy rainfall from Helene and NDJ favors below-normal precipitation. Heavy rainfall from Helene precludes any other development for the Carolinas and Georgia but more this region could have an increasing chance of development if La Niña becomes established. Alabama received less widespread heavy rainfall from Helene and therefore, persistence or development is forecast and consistent with a mostly dry late October and the NDJ outlook favoring below-normal precipitation. Since Florida is excessively wet after heavy rainfall from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, development is not expected at this time despite the increased chance of below-normal precipitation in the NDJ outlook.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, severe to exceptional drought continues throughout much of western Maryland, southwestern Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although improvement is not expected during late October, at least a 1-category improvement is anticipated across the Central Appalachians by the end of January 2025. This improvement forecast is based on the lack of a predicted dry signal at the seasonal time scale and a typical increase in soil moisture if near or above-normal precipitation occurs during NDJ. The seasonal outlook calls for equal chances for below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Forecast confidence is low for the Central Appalachians given the drought intensity and mostly dry weather forecast during mid to late October. Climatology and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge support drought removal for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England by the end of January 2025.



Forecast confidence is low for the Central Appalachians and moderate for the Mid-Atlantic and New England.



Alaska became drought-free on September 17, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Since the NDJ outlook only slightly favors below-normal precipitation for parts of southeastern Alaska and given the time of year, drought is unlikely to develop.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble with an increased chance of above-normal precipitation during NDJ along with a typical wet signal associated with La Niña, drought is expected to improve or end for the Hawaiian Islands by the end of January.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Although 30-day precipitation averaged below-normal across parts of southern and eastern Puerto, drought development is not expected. This is consistent with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble having large probabilities (more than 70 percent) for above-normal precipitation for NDJ.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



The U.S. Virgin Islands are drought-free and given the NMME strongly favoring above-normal precipitation probabilities during NDJ, no development is forecast.



Forecast confidence is high for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 21, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST