Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April and April-May-June (AMJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for AMJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on March 18, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



Precipitation generally averaged at or above-normal for the water year to date (WYTD), October 1, 2024 to March 17, 2025, across northern California and the Pacific Northwest which is mostly drought-free. However, lower precipitation amounts and associated snowfall resulted in drought continuing across portions of Washington, including the northern Cascades. Due to the likelihood of periods with heavy precipitation during the remainder of March and the April outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, removal is forecast to the west of the Cascades in Washington. Persistence is more likely along the northern Cascades based on low water equivalent values. Farther to the east across northern Idaho and adjacent parts of western Montana, the increased chance of above-normal precipitation through at least the next two weeks along with SWE near average support removal. For the remainder of ongoing drought across Montana, persistence is forecast as there is more uncertainty on how much precipitation occurs from late March through April. The AMJ outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Broad-scale persistence is forecast for the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern California as the climatology becomes drier later in the spring through the start of summer. Development is most likely for eastern New Mexico where 90-day precipitation averaged below-normal and the AMJ outlook favors below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.



Forecast confidence is high for the West Region.



Moderate (D1), severe (D2), or extreme (D3) drought are currently designated for a majority of the Northern to Central Great Plains. Since the heaviest precipitation is forecast to be well east of these areas during the remainder of March and many of the seasonal models favor below-normal precipitation during April-May-June, broad-scale persistence is the most likely outcome. The increasingly wet climatology later in the spring leads to somewhat lower forecast confidence despite the good dynamical model agreement on below-normal precipitation for the three-month period. Based on antecedent dryness along with below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures favored in the AMJ outlooks, development is forecast for southern Colorado. Northern Colorado and Wyoming were not included in the development due to above-normal Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and 90-day precipitation has averaged at or above normal.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.



Most of the Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley remain drought-free, while abnormal dryness (D0) or drought of varying intensity affects the Southern Great Plains. Recently in mid-March, leeside cyclogenesis has resulted in a couple of intensifying low pressure systems with strong winds and blowing dust across portions of Oklahoma and Texas. Soil moisture percentiles are quickly falling below the 20th percentile throughout much of Oklahoma and Texas. The recent hazardous weather combined with a lack of winter precipitation has increased the chance of drought development heading into April. Based on the AMJ outlook favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures, drought persistence or development is forecast for the Southern Great Plains and Rio Grande Valley. The development was generally confined to areas where increased below-normal precipitation probabilities in the AMJ outlook coincide with where abnormal dryness (D0) is designated in the U.S. Drought Monitor. An increasingly wet springtime climatology slightly lowers forecast confidence for persistence and development across the Southern Great Plains. For eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, forecast confidence is too low on a seasonal time scale to depict any development at this time with the AMJ outlook going with equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. All of the South Region will be closely monitored for any potential rapid onset drought episodes as temperatures heat up later in the spring and into the beginning of summer.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South Region.



A residual wet signal, associated with the weakening La Niña, along with the April and AMJ outlooks favoring above-normal precipitation and an increasingly wet climatology support drought improvement or removal for northeastern Missouri, northeastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, lower Michigan, and southern Wisconsin. In addition, there is a strong low pressure system crossing northeastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin on March 19th with a swath of snow and rain (liquid equivalent of 0.5 to 1.5 inches) and the 8-14 day outlook, valid March 27-April 2, tilts towards the wet side. Farther to the north across much of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, broad-scale persistence is more likely due to a lack of snowfall this past winter and the AMJ outlook has equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. As the summer approaches, the risk for any rapid onset drought events will be closely monitored.



Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.



Drought coverage varies across the Southeast and is mostly designated as moderate (D1) with several pockets of severe (D2) in parts of the eastern Carolinas and central to south Florida. Similar to the Northeast Region, forecast confidence is low on how this drought changes in the next few months and if any drought develops. Without a clear wet signal from late March through the end of June and the AMJ outlook depicting equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation, persistence is expected. The one exception is that drought should improve during June across the Florida Peninsula with the onset of their wet season either in late May or early June. The very wet June climatology would favor improving drought conditions by the end of June. However, it should be noted that the Florida drought is expected to persist and may even intensify during April. As temperatures warm later in the spring and into the early summer, the risk for rapid onset drought will be closely monitored across the Southeast.



Forecast confidence is low for the Southeast Region.



Drought continues from New England southward to the Mid-Atlantic with severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought designated across parts of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey. 28-day average streamflows are running below the 10th percentile throughout these D2 to D3 areas with drought dating back to the fall of 2024. Removal is most likely to occur across New England where 30-day precipitation has averaged near normal and heavier precipitation is forecast during the remainder of March. Along with the predicted beneficial precipitation, a transition to cooler temperatures in the short-term should provide favorable conditions for soil moisture recharge. Farther to the south, precipitation amounts are expected to be lower during the next two weeks and persistence is forecast for the Mid-Atlantic with AMJ having equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures favored. Any beneficial precipitation later in the spring and early summer could be offset by warmer temperatures and an increasing water demand. The GEFS and ECENS for week-2 (valid March 27-April 2) depict an amplified 500-hPa trough over southeastern Canada and the Northeast which may lead to a wetter pattern for much of the East Coast at the end of March through the beginning of April. The updated seasonal drought outlook, released on March 31, will closely monitor precipitation trends for early April.



Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.



Alaska is currently drought-free although there is abnormal dryness (D0) designated for portions of southern Alaska. The AMJ precipitation outlook only slightly leans towards below-normal precipitation and forecast confidence is too low to define any specific area for development at this time. Therefore, Alaska is expected to remain drought-free through the end of June.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.



Although the NMME favors above-normal precipitation for Hawaii, persistence is most likely especially for the leeward side of the islands. This is due in part to increasingly dry climatology during May and June. The best chance for drought removal exists along the windward side of the Big Island.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Puerto Rico is expected to remain drought-free through the end of June due to antecedent wetness (28-day average streamflows above the 75th percentile), the NMME tilting towards the wet side, and an increasingly wet time of year.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Although short-term dryness recently developed across St John and St Thomas, those islands along with St Croix are expected to remain drought-free through the end of June. This is due to the NMME favoring above-normal precipitation.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 17, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT