This publication monitors current and developing climate variations and is issued as conditions warrant. Questions should be directed as follows:

     Area of Concern	               Source	                          Telephone Number

Current Climate Information  Climate Prediction Center, NWS
	                     Climate Operations Branch	                    (301) 763-4670
	                     Analysis Branch	                            (301) 763-8227
                             Prediction Branch	                            (301) 763-8155
Regional Climate Centers     Northeast RCC                                  (607) 255-5950
                             Southeast RCC                                  (803) 737-0800
                             Midwest RCC                                    (217) 244-1488
                             Southern RCC                                   (504) 388-6184
                             High Plains RCC                                (402) 472-6706
                             Western RCC                                    (702) 677-3103
Public Information	     NWS Public Affairs	                            (301) 713-0622
Historical Perspective	     NESDIS National Climatic Data Center           (704) 271-4800
Water Supply/Forecasts	     NWS Office of Hydrology*	                    (301) 713-1630
Wildfires	             National Interagency Coordination Center       (208) 387-5512
Agriculture	             USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board          (202) 720-3508
	                     USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service  (202) 720-2157
	                     Joint Agricultural Weather Facility	    (202) 720-7917
Drought Planning             National Drought Mitigation Center             (402) 472-6707

*There are 13 National Weather Service River Forecast Offices throughout the U.S. that provide water supply forecasts. Call the above number for the River Forecast Center with responsibility for your area of interest.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provides climate products and services consisting of operational prediction of climate variations, monitoring of the climate system and development of databases for determining current global and regional climate anomalies and trends, and analysis of their origins and linkages to the complete climate system. These services cover climate time-scales ranging from weeks to seasons, extending into the future as far as technically feasible, and over the domain of land, ocean, and atmosphere, extending into the stratosphere.

Services and products are distributed to users in the government, the research community, private industry, and the public, both in this country and abroad. The CPC supports and stimulates the use of climate data for applications in agriculture, energy, transportation, water resources, and health.

To support these services, the CPC engages in diagnostic research and studies of observations and forecast model output to improve the prediction, monitoring, and analysis of the physical climate system.

Update on Drought Conditions in the Southern Plains and the Southwest

July 17, 1996

Conditions:

Since the Climate Prediction Center published a summary of drought conditions in the southern Plains and Southwest in early June, conditions have improved substantially in most of the severely-affected regions of New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In fact, rainfall during June and the first half of July entirely eliminated the accumulated October 1995 - May 1996 precipitation deficiencies in parts of New Mexico, and halved the long-term deficits in much of Texas and portions of Oklahoma (Figure 1). The heavy rains even induced brief flash flooding in parts of northern Texas, the Red River Valley, and New Mexico. For instance, October 1995 - May 1996 precipitation totaled 1.25" at Clovis in east-central New Mexico (19% of normal), but 10.17" of rain fell during June 1 - July 14, generating a small surplus for the October - mid-July period as a whole. Roswell, in southeastern New Mexico, received 4.85" of rain in 2 days (July 14-15), which was 38% of their ANNUAL normal.

July typically marks the beginning of the wettest 3 months of the year across the southern Rockies and Southwest as moisture from the annual monsoon starts entering the region. For this reason, the best chance for a significant break from the recent drought in the southern Rockies and Southwest was for ample, widespread monsoonal thundershowers to begin developing in early July and continue into September. Through mid-July, at least, this appears to have happened, but continued monsoonal thundershowers are necessary for the region to avoid additional drought-related difficulties in 1997.

Farther east, low October - May precipitation totals were reported across the southern Great Plains, including Amarillo, TX (3.35"; 42% of normal) and Oklahoma City, OK (10.41"; 52% of normal), but rainfall increased significantly during the last 1 1/2 months, raising October - mid-July totals at these locations to 7.98" (62% of normal) and 19.19" (75% of normal), respectively. During June and the first half of July, more than 4 inches of rain soaked large sections of the central and southern Plains and the southern Rockies, with the largest totals (8 to 12 inches) generally observed along the middle and lower Red River Valley in the southeastern Great Plains (Figure 2). As a result, drought relief across the southern Great Plains was significant in many areas, but not as widespread or marked as the improvements across New Mexico, where normals were lower.

In contrast, June - mid-July rainfall totals under 1 inch were restricted to the western parts of the region (where totals are normally low during the first half of summer), parts of the Rio Grande Valley, and northeastern Mexico. In addition, the 3 to 6 inches reported across much of the lower half of the Mississippi Valley is somewhat below normal for the period. For this reason, drought conditions improved only slightly or remained unchanged through July 14 across the western tier of the region while some degree of mild to moderate drought began to develop over the lower half of the Mississippi Valley.

The long-term status of drought conditions as approximated by the areally-averaged statewide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) for Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas on a weekly basis since the start of the calendar year is depicted at the top of the next page. All four states experienced a slow but steady decline in conditions from the first week of the year through part of June. Over the last few weeks, however, conditions across New Mexico improved dramatically as the statewide PDI climbed to "near-normal" levels not experienced since late 1995. Less-marked improvement also occurred in Texas and Oklahoma while the statewide PDI for Arizona increased but remained unfavorably low. However, locally heavy rains during July 14 - 16 in parts of Arizona should induce a further increase in the state's next areally-averaged PDI (calculated on July 22.)

The PDI is depicted on a regional (climate-division) basis in (Figure 3), which shows substantial improvement in New Mexico and parts of Texas and Oklahoma while little recovery occurred farther to the north and west across Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and southern California. In addition, a mild to moderate degree of long-term drought has developed during the last few weeks over portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley in conjunction with recent subnormal rainfall.

IMPACTS:

According to the U. S. Department of Agriculture, rains across the southern Plains generally came early enough in the season for spring-planted crops to be only minimally affected by the drought. As of July 6, corn and sorghum crops in Texas were 39% and 21% (respectively) poor or very poor, compared to the national totals of 10% poor or very poor for each crop. The cotton crops in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas were 7%, 6%, 7%, and 29% in poor or very poor condition, respectively, compared to the national total of 15% poor or very poor. Farther south, Mexican corn also benefitted from recent increases in precipitation.

Unfortunately, the damage to much of the winter wheat crop that occurred during the height of the drought was not reversible once significant rains finally began to fall. Nationally, 33% of the winter wheat crop was in poor or very poor condition on July 7, only somewhat below the 40% in such condition in early June. In addition, pasture and range crops have not fared well, with 78%, 68%, 18%, and 51% rated poor or very poor in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas on July 7, well below the national total of 17% poor or very poor (except in Oklahoma, where significant rains fell earlier than in areas farther to the south and west).

Wildfire activity improved following the onset of increased rainfall, but remained above normal. During January 1 - June 6, 1996, over 1.6 million acres across the country were consumed by fires, primarily across Alaska and the southwestern quarter of the contiguous 48 states. This was nearly 3.5 times the 5-year average for the period. During June 7 - July 17, 1.3 million additional acres were burnt, 194% of the five-year average. As a result, year-to-date acreage consumed through July 17 increased to 2.9 million acres, but because this coincided with a typical summer increase in wildfires, the total was just over 2.5 times the normal. With wetter conditions observed recently, the wildfire potential has dropped significantly across the southern Plains and Rockies, particularly in New Mexico, where numerous restrictions to potentially fire-inducing activity (such as the use of fireworks and campfires) were lifted before July 4.

The quantity of water stored in reservoirs continued to drop across the region despite the recent increase in rainfall. Several were at or near record-low levels in southern and western parts of Texas, most notably the Falcon, Armistad, and Rayburn storage lakes. Farther north and west, reservoir levels were not critically low to the point where water supplies might become a problem in the immediate future, but were well below normal and had yet to demonstrate any degree of recovery from the recent rains, particularly across New Mexico and Arizona. In California, surplus wet-season (October - March) precipitation across central and northern parts of the state, where the critical water supply reservoirs are located, pushed total statewide water storage to near-record levels by mid-spring. A seasonably-typical drop in stored water ensued over late spring and early summer, but supplies remain plentiful and should not be a problem through at least the end of 1996.