Valid Friday January 16, 2026 to Thursday January 22, 2026
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM
EST January 08 2026
Synopsis: A tight gradient between high
surface pressure over the interior West and low pressure across the Desert
Southwest and West Coast increases the odds for periodic high winds over the
Southwest until the middle of the period, with Santa Ana winds possible near
the southern California coast. Meanwhile, east of the high pressure center,
episodes of strong downsloping winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and
adjacent northern Plains throughout the period. Possible surface lows and
associated fronts traversing the East Coast and eastern Canada and U.S. may
bring high winds to the Appalachians, Northeast, and northern Mid-Atlantic and
heavy snow to parts of the northeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Cold surface
high pressure is anticipated to build behind these disturbances, increasing the
likelihood for much below normal temperatures over the Upper Mississippi
Valley, Northern Plains, and Upper Peninsula of Michigan late in the period.
Surface low pressure over the Bering Sea, western and southern Alaska combined
with adjacent high pressure over the Yukon may bring lingering high winds to
portions of the southeastern Mainland of Alaska from the end of week-1 into the
beginning of week-2. There continues to be increased potential for Kona Lows
bringing heavy precipitation and periodic high wind gusts to parts of Hawaii,
although there is significant uncertainty regarding the details of this
potential.
Hazards - Slight risk of high winds in the
Southwest from Arizona through southern California, Fri-Sun, Jan 16-18.
- Slight risk of high winds along the east-central and northeastern Rockies
and the adjacent High Plains, Fri-Thu, Jan 16-22.
- Slight risk of high winds in portions of the Appalachians, Northeast, and
northern Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Tue, Jan 16-20.
- Slight risk of heavy snow for the Northeast, Appalachians, and lee of Lakes
Erie and Ontario, Fri-Tue, Jan 16-20.
- Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for the Upper Mississippi
Valley, Northern Plains, and Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Sun-Thu, Jan 18-22.
- Slight risk of high winds for coastal portions of the southeastern Mainland
of Alaska, Fri Jan 16.
Detailed SummaryFor Sunday
January 11 - Thursday January 15:
WPC Days 3-7 U.S.
Hazards For Friday January 16 - Thursday
January 22: There is good model agreement across multiple model ensemble
means during week-2, indicating an amplified mid-level ridge over the Northeast
Pacific, Alaska and western half of the CONUS, with troughing downstream over
the eastern half of the CONUS. In general models show a more amplified height
pattern, with the mid-level trough east of the Rockies sinking further South
and deepening quicker compared to yesterday.
Surface high pressure is predicted to build across the Rockies westward,
with inverted surface troughing along the West Coast into the Desert Southwest
throughout much of week-2. This pattern supports a tight pressure gradient
across parts of the southwestern CONUS and is a favorable setup for Santa Ana
wind episodes for southern coastal California. The ECENS (GEFS) Probabilistic
Extremes Tool (PET) shows at least a 30% (20%) chance of wind speeds exceeding
the 85th percentile climatologically and 20 mph in the highlighted risk area. A
slight risk of high winds is continued for the Southwest from Arizona through
southern California, Jan 16-18. Fortunately, the recent wetness there should
quell any significant increase in fire danger.
With surface high pressure anticipated over the Rockies and a series of
adjacent surface lows developing over the north-central CONUS, there could be
periods of tight pressure gradient and resultant increased chances for episodes
of strong downsloping winds in the lee of the Rockies. Additionally, a series
of surface lows are anticipated to track southward to the upper central U.S.
from central Canada, further supporting high winds in the Northern Plains. A
slight risk of episodic high winds is maintained for the east-central and
northeastern Rockies and the adjacent High Plains, Jan 16-22. Multiple PETs
show at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 25
mph in the designated risk area, further supported by recent deterministic and
uncalibrated ensemble model runs indicating enhanced wind speeds in the region.
Across the East, multiple models have been indicating the potential for
surface lows tracking along the East Coast as well as the border of eastern and
central U.S. / Canada. These series of lows and associated fronts support
increased likelihood of enhanced winds for the northeastern CONUS and
Appalachians. The slight risk of high winds has been expanded to include the
upper Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, and Northeast, Jan 16-20. There is
considerable uncertainty regarding the specifics of the timing, location, and
evolution of these surface lows, thus a broad area and period is highlighted
with this risk. The GEFS and ECENS PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of wind
speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph. These disturbances may also
bring heavy snow to parts of the Northeast and Appalachians including heavy
lake-effect snow to the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. A slight risk of heavy
snow is continued for these regions Jan 16-20. The uncalibrated ECENS and GEFS
indicate snowfall totals of at least 2 to 4 inches for some risk areas over a
3-day period.
Surface high pressure is predicted to build across the central CONUS in the
lee of the Rockies by early in week-2. Multiple models favor a more amplified
mid-level trough sinking further south and developing earlier compared to
yesterday. This translates to models and associated tools having increased
anomalous cold signals earlier in the period as well. The slight risk of much
below normal temperatures is expanded further east compared to yesterday to
include the Northern Plains in addition to the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This hazard is also expanded in time, valid Jan
18-22. Multiple model PETs are in fairly good agreement indicating at least a
20% chance of minimum temperatures falling to the lowest 15th percentile
climatologically and -10 deg F. Wind chills could fall below -20 deg F in this
region.
Multiple models indicate the potential for one or more potent storm systems
to affect parts of southern Alaska from the end of week-1, potentially
lingering into the start of week-2. There is still significant uncertainty
regarding the details of these storms. In general, there is increased
possibility for localized heavy precipitation, snowfall, and high winds. A
slight risk of high winds (including gap winds locally) is designated for
coastal portions of the southeastern Mainland, now only valid for Jan 16. Much
of the impact is anticipated to occur prior to week-2. Multiple PETs indicate
at least a 20% of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 40 mph in the
highlighted risk area.
A series of Kona Lows may impact parts of Hawaii during week-2. There is
considerable uncertainty regarding the location, evolution, and magnitude of
any hazardous conditions, but there is general agreement that precipitation
over most of the state will be above normal in sum for week-2. Potential
impacts include periods of heavy precipitation, high winds, and significant
wave heights for parts of the state.
Forecaster: Melissa Ou
$$
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
Resources
Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool
GFS Ensemble Forecasts
www.nws.noaa.gov
