Valid Tuesday November 25, 2025 to Monday December 01, 2025
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM
EST November 17 2025
Synopsis: Mid-level low pressure centered
over the Interior West at the beginning of week-2 is predicted to rebuild by
the end of week-2. With strong mid-level high pressure over the higher
latitudes of western North America, this pattern favors cold Arctic air sinking
south from the western half of Canada into the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS),
leading to increased chances for much below normal temperatures designated for
the northwestern and central CONUS. An increased risk of heavy snow is
anticipated for high elevations initially for the Cascades shifting to the
Rockies and portions of the Plains along with potentially high winds as the
mid-level low pressure shifts eastward. Ahead of this mid-level low, a front
may bring heavy precipitation amounts to parts of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast at the beginning of the
period.
Hazards - Slight risk of much below normal
temperatures for parts of the northwestern CONUS and Great Plains, Wed-Mon, Nov
26-Dec 1.
- Slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascades, Thu-Mon, Nov 27-Dec 1.
- Slight risk of heavy snow for parts of the Rockies and eastern Colorado,
Tue-Thu, Nov 25-27.
- Slight risk of heavy snow for parts of the Northern and Central Plains,
Upper Mississippi valley, and Upper Great Lakes, Tue-Mon, Nov 25-Dec 1.
- Slight risk of high winds across the Great Plains, Tue-Sat, Nov 25-29.
- Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast, Tue-Thu, Nov 25-27.
- Possible flooding for the Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys.
Detailed SummaryFor Thursday
November 20 - Monday November 24:
WPC Days 3-7 U.S.
Hazards For Tuesday November 25 - Monday
December 01: Early in week-2, an amplified mid-level ridge over Alaska and
northeastern Pacific is expected to contribute to a deepening mid-level trough
downstream over the western CONUS. The greatest positive 500 hPa anomalies are
displaced a bit further north toward the Arctic compared to yesterday. This
translates to the GEFS trough being slightly less amplified at the onset of
week-2, with the trough not digging quite as far south compared to yesterday.
The ECENS and Canadian ensemble means favor a more amplified solution,
comparatively. Reloading of this trough is anticipated toward the end of the
period across the West.
Cold Arctic air is anticipated to sink southward from western Canada by day
9 (Nov 26), initially bringing much below normal temperatures to the Pacific
Northwest, shifting to the central CONUS by the middle of the period. A broad
area of slight risk of much below normal temperatures is highlighted across
parts of the northwestern CONUS and Great Plains from Nov 26 to Dec 1. The GEFS
(ECENS) Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PET) indicates at least a 20% (30%)
chance of minimum temperatures falling to the lowest 15th percentile,
climatologically, with the parts of the Pacific Northwest reaching 28 deg F,
and below 20 deg F across parts of the central CONUS.
A front is predicted ahead of the aforementioned mid-level trough over the
West, with the ensemble guidance from multiple models showing the potential for
surface lows tracking from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. This stormy pattern
may bring increased chances for multiple associated hazards to the central
CONUS. A slight risk of heavy snow is designated for the Rockies and eastern
Colorado, Nov 25-27, followed by a slight risk of heavy snow for the Northern
and Central Plains, Upper Mississippi valley, and Upper Great Lakes for week-2.
Uncalibrated ensembles show increased chances for some of these areas receiving
greater than 4 inches over a 3-day period. There is a potential for the pattern
to be favorable for some areas in the Great Lakes receiving heavy Lake Effect
Snow. However, at this time there is too much uncertainty to highlight a Lake
Effect Snow hazard but will be monitored in upcoming days. With surface high
pressure anticipated over the East adjacent to surface low pressure in the
West, a tight pressure gradient may form across the central CONUS supporting a
slight risk of high winds across the Great Plains Nov 25-29.
As the cold front across the central CONUS progresses eastward, heavy
precipitation is possible across the southeastern CONUS. A slight risk of heavy
precipitation is posted for parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Ohio,
and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast, Nov 25-27. Multiple PETs indicate 3-day
rainfall totals exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch. A possible flood
shape is also highlighted for the Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is anticipated to form over the northeast
Pacific, with associated surface low pressure forming in the Gulf of Alaska
with a trailing cold front extending to the Pacific Northwest. This may bring
heavy snow to high elevations of the Cascades, Nov 27-Dec 1. Uncalibrated ECENS
guidance shows the possibility of 3-day snowfall accumulations reaching 12
inches in the Cascades.
Amplified mid-level ridging is predicted across much of Alaska, with above
normal temperatures favored for much of the state excluding the southeastern
portion where below normal temperatures are anticipated. Surface low pressure
over the Gulf of Alaska combined with adjacent surface high pressure over
British Columbia may lead to a tight pressure gradient along coastal portions
of south-central and southeastern Alaska. This may support gusty wind in these
coastal areas. However, there is too much uncertainty at this time to designate
a high wind risk.
Forecaster: Melissa Ou
$$
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
Resources
Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool
GFS Ensemble Forecasts
www.nws.noaa.gov
