Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jun 20 2026-Fri Jul 03 2026

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are present, and an El Niño Watch remains in effect. Over the past four weeks, equatorial relative sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-above-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-to-below-average in the western Pacific Ocean. Notably, relative SSTs in the Niño3.4 region reached 0.5 degrees C above-average in the past week. El Niño is favored to emerge soon (83% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. While the above-average SSTs may exert a minor influence during the weeks 3-4 valid period, teleconnections are typically weaker in summer months. The Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models show differing scenarios regarding the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the next few weeks, however; later in the forecast period, both models depict weakening of the RMM with ECMWF decaying into the unit circle and GEFSv12 stopping just short, with higher uncertainty. Despite the forecasts favoring a weakening MJO signal, the MJO was recently active, and there is potential for a lingering impact from the active MJO on weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation. The Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks this week are primarily based on dynamical model forecasts from the GEFSv12, ECMWF, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and Climate Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2). A blend of dynamical models and a multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical tool, which estimates the influence of ENSO, MJO, and trends on temperature and precipitation over the Contiguous United States (CONUS), is also utilized.

Shorter-term forecasts (8-14 days) feature a ridge-trough-ridge pattern stretching across North America. As guidance shifts into the weeks 3-4 period, mid-level troughing off the West Coast south of the Aleutians is forecast to weaken, with a ridge broadening and strengthening over the western CONUS. CFSv2, GEFSv12, and ECMWF models are in good agreement on the above-average heights over the western half of the CONUS that persist through weeks 3 and 4. Conversely, mid-level heights are forecast to be neutral over the eastern half of the CONUS, owing to a more uncertain and transient pattern. Over Alaska, models generally agree on above-average mid-level heights south of the Aleutians transitioning to below-average heights to the north. However, the positioning and strength of the anomalies slightly differ depending on the model. JMA is an outlier this week; though JMA forecasts above-average heights over Alaska, weak below-average mid-level heights off the West Coast in week 3 expand over the western CONUS by week 4, which comparatively suppresses the above-average heights over the western CONUS during the weeks 3-4 period in JMA. Because it stands apart from the other models, JMA is weighted comparatively lower this week.

Above-average mid-level heights over the western CONUS support enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures. Given model consensus, strength of the mid-level above-average heights, and persistence of the height pattern from week 3 into week 4, the probabilities reach 60 to 70% over the interior Northwest. The higher probabilities are further reinforced by any lingering influence from the MJO, below-average soil moisture and above-average decadal temperature trends. Probabilities are damped slightly, but still above-normal, over the Southwest given the potential for above-normal precipitation. Farther east, the temperature pattern is more uncertain and the mid-level height pattern may be more transient during the period. While there is some agreement among tools for above-normal temperatures along the Southeast coast and Atlantic Seaboard, likely partially owing to weak above-average SSTs and below-average soil moisture in some areas, confidence is comparatively lower across the central CONUS. A weak tilt toward above-normal temperatures is indicated from the Southwest to Northeast, owing to GEFSv12 and ECMWF forecasts. Model guidance is mixed over Alaska, but given the prevailing height pattern indicating above-average heights over the southern part of the state transitioning to below-average heights off the northern part of the state, weak probabilities of above-normal temperatures transitioning to below-normal temperatures are indicated. Relative SST anomalies around Hawaii feature above-average SSTs near and around the Big Island transitioning to neutral relative SSTs near and around Kauai. Odds of above-normal temperatures decrease from southeast to northwest.

The forecast amplified ridging over the western CONUS also supports a tilt toward below-normal precipitation over the Northwest. However, the ridge has a somewhat northward orientation, which allows for moisture into the Southwest and enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation. Above-normal precipitation extends as a low probability swath stretching from approximately western Texas across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast, eventually reaching up the East Coast into New England, supported by weak but consistent model agreement. Conversely, below-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast over the Great Lakes region, given model consensus. Over Alaska, again owing to the mid-level height pattern but with weak probabilities given weak and inconsistent signals in models, below-normal precipitation probabilities over the southwestern mainland transition to above-normal precipitation probabilities over northwestern mainland. Over Hawaii, some subtropical convection is anticipated, but uncertainty in models leads to only weak above-normal probabilities.

Forecaster: Johnna Infanti

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jun 12, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A), below-median (B), or near-median with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.