Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jul 11 2026-Fri Jul 24 2026

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System Status is set to El Niño Advisory. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen in the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. After propagating at a high amplitude from the Western Pacific earlier this month, the Realtime Multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (RMM, MJO) observations show the MJO signal continuing to weaken and becoming more stationary over the Western Hemisphere through the middle of June. A disorganized MJO is also supported in the latest upper-level velocity potential anomalies. The anomaly pattern remains reflective of multiple modes of tropical variability at play, with much of the weakened MJO activity likely caused by destructive interference from the strengthening El Niño conditions. Current RMM forecasts show good agreement in propagating a strengthening MJO signal across the Western Pacific.

An equally weighted blend of dynamical and statistical model forecast 500-hPa height anomalies consolidate the forecast signals to a ridging pattern across the western contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, and weak troughing to the east of the Great Lakes region. The guidance is generally consistent on the ridging pattern over the western CONUS and Alaska, but the guidance varies on the troughing pattern in the east. In particular, the JMA is bullish with a troughing minimum over the Great Lakes region that expands westward into the Central Plains. The CFS also forecasts a trough but centers the minimum further north over the New England area. The statistical guidance is well aligned with the dynamical JMA guidance and also forecasts a troughing pattern in the same region. However, the ECMWF guidance is bullish with ridging across most of CONUS, while the GEFS forecasts ridging across most of the western CONUS and Alaska, and near normal heights east of the Mississippi Valley and southern CONUS.

An equally weighted blend of dynamical and statistical guidance consolidates the forecast signals to warmer than average conditions across western CONUS and most of Alaska. Confidence in this forecast is highest across the Northwest, West Coast, and coastal Southeast. Given the mixed guidance on temperature and height forecasts across the Great Lakes region, and southeastward toward the Southern Plains, the outlook forecasts Equal Chances across most of the Plains and near normal temperatures for the Great Lakes and Midwest.

Precipitation forecast guidance is mixed. A review of statistical guidance supports the highest confidence in above average precipitation forecast across the Four Corners, Great Basin, extended Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic, and New England. The highest confidence in below average precipitation is forecast for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, southern extent of Florida, and southern portions of Western Alaska.

For Hawaii, the outlook favors above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for all the islands.

Forecaster: Emerson LaJoie

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jul 03, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A), below-median (B), or near-median with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.