Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 21 2026-Fri Apr 03 2026

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System Status is set to La Niña advisory. Equatorial sea surface temperatures are below average across the east-central Pacific Ocean and above average elsewhere. Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Niña. A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected through April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026).

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity was more coherent earlier this week as Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) observations resumed eastward propagation from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent and entered phase 5 in RMM space. Repeated equatorial Rossby Wave interference with the MJO has occurred since the start of this year. Following each instance, the MJO has managed to regain its strength and resume eastward propagation, as recorded in RMM observations. RMM forecasts started this week with a stronger signal propagating into phase 6 by the start of this outlook period, but have since retreated toward the unit circle. However, dynamical models vary on the timing and strength of forecast propagation.

An equal weighted blend of the dynamical and statistical model guidance for the outlook period features widespread ridging across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Across Alaska, the blended height pattern favors near normal heights for the outlook period, but this is a result of averaging the widely varying anomalous height forecasts from each of the dynamical models. For instance, both the CFS and GEFS favor troughing over Alaska, while the JMA favors ridging, and the ECMWF is somewhere in between. Across the Northeast and Great Lakes region, the ridging pattern shifts the most between week-3 to week-4, with a trough nudging southward in week-4.

During the outlook period, the dynamical and statistical guidance broadly agree on above average temperatures across most of the CONUS with the largest departures from average (1-4℃ above climatology) located near the Intermountain West, Central and Southern Rockies, and Southwest. The highest probabilities for above normal temperatures is forecast for the southwest third of the CONUS. Equal Chances is forecast for the Great Lakes and adjacent regions in deference to the mixed model guidance in that area. Elevated probabilities for below normal temperatures are forecast for the Northeast. Across Alaska, the CFS and GEFS are most bullish with a forecast for below average temperatures (2-4℃ below climatology), however the ECMWF forecasts weakly below average temperatures (0.5-1℃ below climatology), while the JMA forecasts slightly above normal temperatures (0.5-1℃ above climatology). Given the mixed model guidance and especially weak probabilities, Equal Chances is forecast for the northern half of Alaska, while elevated probabilities for below average temperatures are forecast for the southern half of Alaska.

A blend of dynamical and experimental statistical guidance forecasts the highest probabilities of above normal precipitation for parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and parts of the Southern Plains. The highest probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast for parts of the Southeast. The model guidance leans toward below average precipitation for southern parts of the Pacific Northwest and Central Great Basin, as well as Northern California. The model guidance leans toward above average precipitation for the Northern Rockies, parts of the Northern Plains, and all of Wyoming. Model guidance was again mixed for most of Alaska thus Equal Chances is forecast for most of the state. The guidance leans toward below average precipitation for the Alaska South Coast and leans toward above average precipitation for the Panhandle.

For Hawaii, surrounding SST anomalies continue to be above normal. The outlook favors above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for all the islands.

Forecaster: Emerson LaJoie

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 13, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.