Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 07 2026-Fri Feb 20 2026

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below-average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with the Niño-3.4 region -0.7 degrees Celsius below average over the past week. These below-average SSTs indicate that we currently have La Niña conditions. However, above-average subsurface temperature anomalies have strengthened in the western half of the Pacific and expanded eastward, and there are increasing chances of a transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during early 2026. For the Weeks 3-4 period, we still anticipate some impacts due to the currently active La Niña. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) amplified over the last week, more evidently in the upper-level wind field, with slow eastward propagation due to destructive interference from the La Niña base state. Forecasts of the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, particularly from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, favor continued eastward propagation of the MJO signal. Thus, the MJO is likely to have some impact on the mid-latitude pattern as well. The Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks primarily rely on dynamical model forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), ECMWF, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and Climate Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2). A blend of dynamical models and a multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical tool, which estimates the influence of ENSO, MJO, and trends on temperature and precipitation over the Contiguous United States (CONUS), was also utilized.

A highly amplified 500-hPa height pattern is forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day period, consistent with a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). For the 6-10 day period, mid-level ridging is favored over Alaska and stretching southeastward over the Western Contiguous United States (CONUS), with troughing over the eastern CONUS. Some eastward progression of the pattern is evident in the 8-14 day period. As we move into Week 3, above-average 500-hPa heights stretch from Alaska over the western CONUS, with the ridge center off the coast over the Gulf of Alaska and Northeast Pacific. Comparatively weaker below-average 500-hPa heights are forecast over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The above-average heights over the West regress slightly westward in Week 4 as below-normal heights overspread the Central CONUS more prominently; however, model skill at this lead time is comparatively lower than that for Week 3. In an average sense for the Weeks 3-4 period, above-average heights are favored over Alaska and the western third of the CONUS, with a transition to below-average heights over the eastern half of the CONUS. Models depict considerable uncertainty regarding the area of transition between above- and below-normal heights. For example, CFSv2 favors about half of the Western CONUS under positive 500-hPa heights, while ECMWF favors more expansive coverage of the below-average heights into the central CONUS. Moreover, there is additional uncertainty from the Week 3 to Week 4 period, as ECMWF and GEFSv12 models favor a resurgence of below-average heights covering a larger region of the northern, eastern and central CONUS. Overall, this leads to uncertainty, particularly over the central and northern CONUS where models diverged.

The Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook depicts above-normal temperatures over the southern half of mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, and over the western third of the CONUS beneath favored ridging. Though there is some uncertainty regarding how far eastward the positive 500-hPa height anomalies might stretch, most models agree on above-average heights over Alaska and the Western CONUS that is persistent throughout the period. Below-normal probabilities are indicated over the eastern third of the CONUS, beneath favored troughing and further supported by the possibility of continued eastward propagation of the MJO, which would additionally drive below-normal temperatures over the East. A weak tilt (33 to 40% chance) toward below-normal temperatures is also located over the northern coast of Alaska, supported by the ECMWF, GEFSv12, and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models, but is weak due to conflicting signals from CFSv2 and above-average decadal temperature trends. A weak probability of near-normal temperatures (33 to 40% chance) is favored over parts of the Southern Plains, where weakly above-normal probabilities in Week 3 are followed by weakly below-normal probabilities in Week 4 in some tools, expected to lead to near-normal temperatures on average. A region of Equal Chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal is indicated for much of the central CONUS, where there is considerable uncertainty regarding the transition between above- and below-average 500-hPa heights, as well as some models favoring increased below-normal temperatures over the Northern Plains in the latter half of the period. Above-average SSTs and agreement among dynamical models supports above-normal temperature probabilities over Hawaii.

Most models show quite weak and inconsistent probabilities for precipitation across much of the CONUS and Alaska in the Weeks 3-4 period, leading to an uncertain Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Models had the most agreement on above-normal precipitation over the Northern Rockies and parts of the Southern Rockies, with an extension into the Northern Great Basin and Northern and Central Plains, consistent with a typical February La Niña signature. Given the model disagreement on the mid-level height pattern, as well as the sharp contrast in the pattern between Week 3 and Week 4, EC is favored over the remainder of the CONUS. Over Alaska, chances of above-normal precipitation are indicated for southeastern mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, given southwesterly flow. Based on a blend of calibrated dynamical models, the Precipitation Outlook for Hawaii leans toward above-normal.

Forecaster: Johnna Infanti

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jan 30, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.