Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 10 2026-Fri Jan 23 2026

The Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks issued this week are based on dynamical model guidance, trends, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.

SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are below -0.5°C across all Niño regions. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak La Niña state. Current and forecast Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies indicate a low-frequency positive anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific, indicating suppressed convection over that region. Therefore, La Niña forcing will likely continue to impact the Contiguous United States (CONUS) this winter, which tends to favor anomalous troughing along the northern tier of the CONUS, with anomalous ridging across much of the southern tier. Current coastal SST anomalies are generally above normal around Hawaiʻi, which is a bit atypical for La Niña conditions.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently not active. Dynamical model forecasts indicate that the MJO amplitude will likely remain weak for the foreseeable future. Anomalous convection over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans is largely being driven by other phenomena, such as La Niña and equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves.

The latest dynamical model guidance diverges substantially around the beginning of week 2, and the resulting mid-level geopotential height pattern during the weeks 3-4 period shows correspondingly large differences. The ECMWF ensembles indicate ridging in the western CONUS, extending westward into the eastern North Pacific. A weakness in ridging is indicated along the East Coast. The CFS, on the other hand, forecasts very strong ridging along the southern and eastern portions of CONUS, with ridging off the West Coast, and a weakness in the ridge centered over the interior portions of the Northwest. The GEFS presents a third scenario, with a ridge center over the far northeastern Pacific, and another extending from the central CONUS towards the Northeast. Weaknesses in the ridge in GEFS are located over the Desert Southwest, the far North Central CONUS, and Florida.

More of the ECMWF ensembles, and fewer of the CFS ensembles, are consistent with the expected week 2 pattern, and thus the CFS was largely discounted for this week’s forecast, while the ECMWF was more heavily weighted. Additionally, the Multiple Linear Regression tool, which accounts for La Niña and the trend, was more heavily considered for the forecast, in the absence of good dynamical model agreement. A manual blend of dynamical and statistical models was heavily utilized to generate this week’s official forecast. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain forecast.

The Temperature Outlook for the Weeks 3-4 period forecasts warmth from the western CONUS across the central and southern Great Plains, and into the Southeast. Additionally, higher probabilities for warmth are indicated over Maine, Hawaiʻi, and far northwestern Alaska. A small area of enhanced cooler-than-normal probabilities are indicated from northern Minnesota, extending southward and eastward to western Upstate New York.

The Precipitation Outlook for the Weeks 3-4 period indicates heightened chances of drier-than-median precipitation over southwestern CONUS, southeastern CONUS, the Aleutian Islands, and parts of the Alaskan Panhandle. Wet conditions are favored over northern and southeastern Alaska, Hawaiʻi, interior portions of the Northwest, the Rockies, the Great Lakes, and northern portions of New England.

Forecaster: Michael Goss

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jan 02, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.