Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Apr 18 2026-Fri May 01 2026

As is common with the shoulder season of spring, many of the traditional subseasonal sources of predictability begin to weaken or decouple from the extratropics, leading to a diminished influence on North American temperature and precipitation. In the tropics, the relative Nino3.4 sea surface temperature (SSTs) remain slightly negative as La Niña conditions persist but continue to erode. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) presents a relatively more active profile with the convective envelope observed over the Western Hemisphere. Although velocity potential fields indicate continued eastward propagation in dynamical model guidance, there remains significant uncertainty regarding whether this activity will trigger teleconnections that will impact the mid-latitude circulation. The lack of robust tropical forcing is compounded by the state of extratropical teleconnections, as both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation are projected to reside in a near-neutral state at the beginning of the forecast window. Without many subseasonal signals to rely on, this week’s forecast primarily reflects dynamical model guidance.

The manual blend of dynamical and statistical tools reveals a large-scale circulation pattern dominated by broad, but modest, anomalous ridging across much of the Continental United States (CONUS). The most pronounced height anomalies are centered over the Northern Plains, a feature captured with varying degrees of intensity across the individual dynamical models. While the general pattern remains consistent, the ECMWF maintains a notably weaker solution compared to the more robust ridging suggested by the JMA and CFS models. The anomalous ridging is most prevalent during Week 3 before undergoing a steady weakening heading into Week 4. Furthermore, the JMA introduces modest anomalous troughing during Week-4 on both East and West Coasts which adds some uncertainty in the temperature forecasts.

The Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook tilts toward slightly above-normal probabilities for large portions of the CONUS including the western states where confidence is highest under the large-scale ridging. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Equal Chances (EC) of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures are predicted for much of the Plains, Upper Midwest, and New England. While the CFS, GEFS, and ECMWF maintain above-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period, the signal diminishes across the Plains during Week 4. The JMA remains a notable outlier, tilting toward below-normal temperatures for much of the Plains and Eastern US except Florida and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This discrepancy arises from the aforementioned Week-4 troughing seen in the JMA.

The Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook highlights enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation over the Southwest with highest probabilities over New Mexico. This wet signal is supported by consistent model guidance likely related to an injection of moisture from the Gulf. Furthermore, backdoor cold fronts common in the spring can promote additional moisture in New Mexico. EC of above-, near-, or below- normal precipitation is forecast for the rest of CONUS due to weak model guidance.

In Alaska, anomalous troughing is predicted off the west coast, but models vary on the placement and depth of this feature. The CFS is the most aggressive solution, depicting negative height anomalies across much of the state, whereas the GEFS maintains a nearly negligible signal. These discrepancies result in a mixed temperature outlook; however, a slight tilt toward above-normal temperatures is forecast, supported primarily by statistical guidance that outweighs the uncertain dynamical guidance. Regarding precipitation, the outlook favors above-normal precipitation along the South Coast, where the anomalous onshore flow gives rise to enhanced moisture flux.

Sea surface temperatures around the Hawaiian Islands are near normal, but model guidance consistently favors above normal temperatures as well as continued above normal precipitation.

Forecaster: Laura Ciasto

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Apr 10, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.