Through a joint CTB project between CPC and IRI, IRI has created calibrated Week 3-4 SubX predictions using extended logistic regression (ELR) methods.
Below is a selection of ELR calibrated forecasts that have been re-plotted for CPC. Images below depict week 3-4 precipitation and temperature ELR
calibrated median 2-category forecasts. All images are courtesy the IRI ELR team, and have simply been re-plotted.
Additional images, including tercile categories and week 2-3 predictions can be found at the IRI experimental map room:
Additonal images can easily be brought into this page for ease of use, contact Johnna for requests.
ELR Team: Andrew Robertson (IRI), Cuihua Li (IRI), Jing Yuan (IRI), Mike Tippett (IRI), Nachiketa Acharya (IRI)
Dan Collins (CPC), Emerson LaJoie (CPC), Johnna Infanti (CPC)
ELR Calibrated Forecast Probabilities