IRI Extended Logistic Regression (ELR) Calibrated Week 3-4 SubX Images

Through a joint CTB project between CPC and IRI, IRI has created calibrated Week 3-4 SubX predictions using extended logistic regression (ELR) methods. Below is a selection of ELR calibrated forecasts that have been re-plotted for CPC. Images below depict week 3-4 precipitation and temperature ELR calibrated median 2-category forecasts. All images are courtesy the IRI ELR team, and have simply been re-plotted.

Additional images, including tercile categories and week 2-3 predictions can be found at the IRI experimental map room:
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/ForecastsS2S/index.html


Additonal images can easily be brought into this page for ease of use, contact Johnna for requests.

PI's: Andrew Robertson and Dan Collins

ELR Team: Andrew Robertson (IRI), Cuihua Li (IRI), Jing Yuan (IRI), Mike Tippett (IRI), Nachiketa Acharya (IRI) Dan Collins (CPC), Emerson LaJoie (CPC), Johnna Infanti (CPC)

For BJP Calibrated tmp2m, visit
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jinfanti/subx/


Week 3-4 Global | Week 3-4 Africa | Week 3-4 Central America


ELR Calibrated Forecast Probabilities







Forecast Date CFSv2 tas2m EMC_GEFS tas2m ESRL_FIMv2 tas2m Mini MME tas2m CFSv2 prate EMC_GEFS prate ESRL_FIMv2 prate Mini MME prate
9 Apr 2021 X X X X X X X X
2 Apr 2021 X X X X X X X X
26 Mar 2021 X X X X X X X X
19 Mar 2021 X X X X X X X X
12 Mar 2021 X X X X X X X X
05 Mar 2021 X X X X X X X X
05 Feb 2021 X X X X X X X X
29 Jan 2021 X X X X X X X X
22 Jan 2021 X X X X X X X X
15 Jan 2021 X X X X X X X X
08 Jan 2021 X X X X X X X X
01 Jan 2021 X X X X X X X X
25 Dec 2020 X X X X X X X X
18 Dec 2020 X X X X X X X X
11 Dec 2020 X X X X X X X X
04 Dec 2020 X X X X X X X X
27 Nov 2020 X X X X X X X X
20 Nov 2020 X X X X X X X X
13 Nov 2020 X X X X X X X X
06 Nov 2020 X X X X X X X X
30 Oct 2020 X X X X X X X X
23 Oct 2020 X X X X X X X X
16 Oct 2020 X X X X X X X X
04 Sep 2020 X X X X X X X X
21 Aug 2020 X X X X X X X X
14 Aug 2020 X X X X X X X X
7 Aug 2020 X X X X X X X X
31 Jul 2020 X X X X X X X X
24 Jul 2020 X X X X X X X X
17 Jul 2020 X X X X X X X X
10 Jul 2020 X X X X X X X X
03 Jul 2020 X X X X X X X X
26 Jun 2020 X X X X X X X X
19 Jun 2020 X X X X X X X X
12 Jun 2020 X X X X X X X X
05 Jun 2020 X X X X X X X X
29 May 2020 X X X X X X X X
22 May 2020 X X X X