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Monday, October 22, 2007
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| 8:00 am - 8:30 am |
Registration |
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| 8:30 am - 8:40 am |
Welcoming Remarks |
Ross Ellington, FSU |
| 8:40 am - 8:50 am |
Opening Remarks |
Jim O'Brien; COAPS/FSU |
| 8:50 am - 9:10 am |
CFS as the National Model |
Louis Uccellini; NOAA/NCEP |
| 9:10 am - 9:30 am |
CPC Embracing the Future |
Wayne Higgins; CPC/NCEP |
Session 1: Review of Operational Forecasts
Chairperson: Mike Halpert; CPC
|
| 9:30 am – 9:50 am |
A Review of 2005-2007 ENSO Predictions |
Tony Barnston; IRI |
| 9:50 am -10:20 am |
Coffee |
| 10:20 am – 10:40 am |
A Review of 2005-2007 U.S. Drought Monitor and Outlook |
Doug LeComte; NCEP/CPC |
| 10:40 am – 11:00 am |
10 Years of Hazards Assessments |
Ed O'Lenic; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:00 am – 11:20 am |
Skill Assessment of CPC Seasonal Forecasts from 1995-2006 |
A. Kumar; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:20 am – 11:40 am |
A Review of UKMET Forecasts for Europe |
Andrew Colman; UKMO |
| 11:40 am – 12:00 pm |
A Review of CFS Forecasts for 2005-2007 |
Wanqui Wang; NCEP/CPC |
| 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
Session 2: (CTB Session): CFS and the Next Generation Reanalysis
Chairperson: Robert Webb; ESRL
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| 1:00 pm - 1:40 pm |
Status and Plan of the NCEP CFSRR Project |
Hua-Lu Pan; NCEP/EMC |
| 1:40 pm - 2:00 pm |
The 20th Century Reanalysis Project |
Jeffrey Whitaker; ESRL/NOAA |
| 2:00 pm - 2:20 pm |
Subseasonal predictions with the NCEP CFS: Forecast Skill and Prediction Barriers |
Augustin Vinzileos; NCEP/EMC |
| 2:20 pm - 2:40 pm |
Empirical Correction of the Global Forecast System |
Timothy DelSole; GMU/COLA |
| 2:40 pm - 3:10 pm |
Coffee |
| 3:10 pm - 3:30 pm |
Comparison of Daily Precip. Statistics for the U.S. in Observations and in NCEP CFS |
Wayne Higgins; NCEP/CPC |
| 3:30 pm - 3:50 pm |
Development of Fast and Accurate Neural Network Emulations of LW Radiation for the NCEP CFS Model |
Krasnopolsky; ESSIC/Univ. MD |
| 3:50 pm - 4:10 pm |
Report on the FY07 CFS Test and Evaluation Team Activities |
Jae-Kyung Schemm; NCEP/CPC |
| 4:10 pm - 4:30 pm |
The Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias in a Coupled Climate Model |
V. Misra; COLA |
| 4:30 pm - 4:50 pm |
Applying NCEP's GODAS and CFS to Monitor, Diagnose and Forecast Coastal Upwelling for the California Current Ecosystem |
Yan Xue; NCEP/CPC |
| 4:50 pm - 5:10 pm |
Evaluation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model |
M. Engelman, COAPS/FSU |
| 5:10 pm - 5:30 pm |
Demonstration of New Capabilities in GrADS |
Jennifer Adams; COLA |
| 6:00 pm - 7:30 pm |
Icebreaker; Cash Bar |
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Tuesday, October 23, 2007
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Session 3: Climate Extremes
Chairperson: Jeffrey Whitaker; ESRL
|
| 8:30 am - 8:50 am |
Attribution of Extreme Variability of Temperature and Rainfall in the Florida Dry Season |
Bart Hagemeyer; NWS/NOAA |
| 8:50 am - 9:10 am |
High Resolution Ensemble Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations |
Tim LaRow; COAPS/FSU |
| 9:10 am - 9:30 am |
North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability |
Philip Klotzbach; CSU |
| 9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment |
Ken Pelman; NCEP/CPC |
| 9:50 am - 10:10 am |
Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western Hemisphere Climate and Hurricanes |
Chunzai Wang; AOML/NOAA |
| 10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee |
| 10:40 am - 11:00 am |
Near-Surface Climate Extremes in the Past 50+ Years |
Yun Fan; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:00 am - 11:20 am |
An Assessment of the Low Frequency Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Basin |
Phillip Pegion; GSFC/NASA |
| 11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Potential Climate Factors Associated with Variations in the Level of Lake Superior |
John Janowiak; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:40 am - 12:00 pm |
An Analysis of the Extreme Temperatures in Europe in 2006-2007 |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; KNMI |
| 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
Session 4: Application of CPC Climate Outlooks in the Southeast U.S.
Chairperson: Muthuvel Chelliah; CPC
|
| 1:00 pm - 1:20 pm |
Working and Partnering with Climate Stakeholders |
Jim O'Brien; Prof. Emeritus, FSU |
| 1:20 pm - 1:40 pm |
AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering Climate-Based Information to Stakeholders in Agriculture |
Joel Paz; Univ. Georgia |
| 1:40 pm - 2:00 pm |
Forecasting Cotton yields Over the Southeastern U.S. Using NCEP/R and NCEP/CFS |
Guillermo Baigorria, UF/SECC |
| 2:00 pm - 4:00 pm |
Coffee and Poster Session 1 (Chairperson: D.W. Shin; COAPS/FSU) |
| 4:00 pm - 4:20 pm |
From Participatory Reasearch to Social Learning: Assessment of Climate Forecast Tools for Livestock Producers |
Norman Breuer; Univ. Miami |
| 4:20 pm - 4:40 pm |
Validation of Climate-Based Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlooks |
Paul Trimble; SFWMD |
| 4:40 pm - 5:00 pm |
Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management: Understanding Farmer's Decision Making |
Todd Crane; Univ. Georgia |
| 5:00 pm - 5:20 pm |
Sensitivity of MJO Predictability to SST |
Kathy Pegion; COLA |
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Wednesday, October 24, 2006
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Session 5: Prospects for Improving Precipitation/Drought Forecasts for Different Time-Scales
Chairperson: Huug van den Dool; CPC
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| 8:30 am - 9:10 am |
Prospects for Improved Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Prediction: The Role of Precipitation Forecasts? |
Dennis Lettenmaier; Univ. Wash. |
| 9:10 am - 9:30 am |
NCEP 2-Week Forecast Skill for Early-Winter Warm, Wet Storms in the Pacific Northwest |
Todd Mitchell; Univ. Wash |
| 9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Multi-Model Ensemble Reconstruction of drought Over the Continental U.S. |
Aihui Wang; Univ. Wash. |
| 9:50 am - 10:10 am |
Predictability of Spring Temperatures Due to Snow Cover Effect |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI |
| 10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee |
| 10:40 am - 11:00 am |
2007 Drought and Wet Spells Over the United States and Mexico |
Kingtse Mo, NCEP/CPC |
| 11:00 am - 11:20 am |
Use of Linear Discriminant Methods for Calibration of Seasonal Probability Forecasts |
Andrew Colman; UKMO |
| 11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Verification of NAEFS Land Surface Forecasts in Warm Season JAS 2006 |
Wanru Wu, NCEP/CPC |
| 11:40 am - 12:00 am |
Summer Season Predictions with NCEP/CFS Using Diff. Land Models and Land IC's |
Rongqian Yang, NCEP/EMC |
| 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
Session 6: Current State of ENSO Predictions, Predictability and Imapcts
Chairperson: Allan Clarke; FSU
|
| 1:00 pm - 1:40 pm |
On the Origin of the Observed ENSO Variability |
Javier Zavala-Garay; Rutgers Univ. |
| 1:40 pm - 2:00 pm |
A Southern Hemisphere Footprint in the American Midwest |
Cecile Penland; ESRL/NOAA |
| 2:00 pm - 2:20 pm |
A Comparative Study of the Atypical 1998-2000 La Niña with Previous La Niña Events |
Amir Shabbar; ARD/Env. Canada |
| 2:20 pm - 2:40 pm |
Equatorial Pacific Heat Content and ENSO Prediction |
Allan Clarke; FSU |
| 2:40 pm - 3:10 pm |
Coffee |
| 3:10 pm - 3:30 pm |
How is ENSO-Monsoon Relationship in Coupled Prediction Affected by Model's Systematic Errors |
June-Yi Lee; IPRC/Univ. HI |
| 3:30 pm - 3:50 pm |
Multi-Model ENSO Prediction Using CFS and CCSM3 |
Ben Kirtman; Univ. Miami/COLA |
| 3:50 pm - 4:10 pm |
The Effects of 2006-07 El Niño on Australia's Climate and Bushfire Season |
Bradley Murphy; BM/Australia |
| 4:10 pm - 4:30 pm |
Predictability of ENSO-Monsoon relationship in NCEP/CFS |
Emilia Jin; GMU/COLA |
| 4:30 pm - 4:50 pm |
An Attribution Analysis of Variations in Skill of CPC's Seasonal Surface Temperature Forecasts |
Peitao Peng, NCEP/CPC |
| TBD |
Banquet; Speaker: Charles Bronson, Commissioner, Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services |
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Thursday, October 25, 2006
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Session 7: Stratospehric/Tropospheric Connections and Intra-Seasonal Predictions
Chairperson: Ming Cai; FSU
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| 8:30 am - 9:10 am |
Intraseasonal Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Tropospheric Predictions |
Robert Black; GA Tech. and Walt Robinson (NSF) |
| 9:10 am - 9:30 am |
Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillation |
Xiohua Fu; IPRC/Univ. HI |
| 9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Assessing the skill of an All-Season Statistical Forecast Model of Madden-Julian Oscillation |
Xianan Jiang; JPL/Cal. Tech. |
| 9:50 am - 10:10 am |
A Stochastic Model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation |
Charles Jones; ICESS/Univ. Cal. |
| 10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee |
| 10:40 am - 11:00 am |
Development of Precipitation Outlooks for the Global Tropics Keyed to the MJO Cycle |
Jon Gottschalck; NCEP/CPC |
| 11:00 am - 11:20 am |
Verification of the NCEP Operational GFS Predictions in the Stratosphere During DJF 2005-06 and 2006-07 |
Ming Cai; FSU |
| 11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Signal to Noise Ratios for Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability |
Edward Berry; PSD/ESRL/NOAA |
| 11:40 am - 12:00 pm |
Evaluation of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Coupled Climate Model |
Suhee Park; NMIR/KMA |
| 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
Session 8: Physical Basis for Developing a Forecast Capability for Weeks 3 & 4
Chairperson: Walt Robinson, NSF
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| 1:00 pm - 1:40 pm |
Physical Basis for Developing a Forecast Capability for Weeks 3 & 4 |
Matt Newmann; ESRL/NOAA |
| 1:40 pm - 2:00 pm |
Assessing the Skill of ECMWF Forecasts in Weeks 3-4 |
Jeff Whitaker; ESRL/NOAA |
| 2:00 pm - 2:20 pm |
Verification of Daily CFS Forecasts from Day 1 to Day 270 |
Huug van den Dool; NCEP/CPC |
| 2:20 pm - 4:00 pm |
Coffee and Poster Session 2 (Chairperson: Song Yang; CPC/NOAA) |
| 4:00 pm - 4:20 pm |
Coupled Predictability of the Seasonal Tropical Precipitation |
Bin Wang; Univ. HI |
| 4:20 pm - 4:40 pm |
Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures |
Fanglin Yang, NCEP/EMC |
| 4:40 pm - 5:00 pm |
Attribution of Observed Climate Trends Over the U.S. during 1950-2000 |
Hailan Wang; GEST/UMBC |
| 5:00 pm - 5:20 pm |
New Coupled forecast System at the Japan Meteorological Agency |
Yuhei Takaya; JMA/Japan |
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Friday, October 26, 2006
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Session 9: Scientific/Practical Results From North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and Precipitation Analyses
Chairperson: Song Yang, CPC
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| 8:30 am - 9:00 am |
Statistical Downscaling of Warm Season Medium-Range Precipitation Prediction in the Core North America Region with Application to Water Resources Forecasting |
David Gochis; NCAR |
| 8:50 am - 9:10 am |
MM5/VIC Modeling of the Influence of Antecedent Soil Moisture on the Variability of the North American Monsoon |
Chumei Zhu; Univ. Wash. |
| 9:10 am - 9:30 am |
Assessment of the NCEP/CFS on the Predictability of the North American Monsoon |
Lindsey Long; NCEP/CPC |
| 9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Contributions of Water Vapor and Temperature to the Interannual Variability of Precipitation: An Evaluation from North American Regional Reanalysis |
Er Lu; Iowa St. Univ. |
| 9:50 am - 10:20 am |
Coffee |
| 10:20 am - 10:40 am |
A Global Daily Gauge-Based Precipitation Analysis, Part 1: Assessing Objective Techniques |
Mingyue Chen, NCEP/CPC |
| 10:40 am - 11:00 am |
Examining Fresh Water Flux over Global Oceans in the NCEP, CDAS, CDAS2, GDAS, GFS and CFS |
P. Xie, NCEP/CPC |
| 11:00 am - 11:20 am |
Variability of U.S. Regional Precipitation, Associated Physical Processes and Simulations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System |
Song Yang, NCEP/CPC |
| 11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Regional Climate Simulation of Surface Temperature and Precipitation by Downscaling Approach Over the Southeast United States |
Young-Kwon Lim, FSU |
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