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Climate Test Bed

Recent CTB Seminar:
Spring Land Surface and Subsurface Temperature Anomalies and Subsequent Downstream Late Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods in North America and East Asia

December 5, 2017  Prof. Yongkang Xue of the University of California, Los Angeles presented a CPC/CTB seminar on the relationship of spring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asia. He and his collaborators’ study revealed such remote effect is the first order forcing of the drought/flood and compatible to SST’s, thus has the potential to be used to improve prediction of high-impact events in the regions of North America and East Asia. the relationship of spring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asia. He and his collaborators’ study revealed such remote effect is the first order forcing of the drought/flood and compatible to SST’s, thus has the potential to be used to improve prediction of high-impact events in the regions of North America and East Asia. The dynamical mechanisms were explored and the challenges  in  applications  and  model improvement discussed. Many ideas from audience in Q&A after the presentation showed common interests of strengthening collaboration between the university research and NCEP operation to accelerate high impact short-term climate prediction skill improvement for better public services.

 Abstract      Abstract     Presentation pdf Presentation pdf

NMME Teleconference

December 7, 2017  Dr. Hai Lin of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) presented an overview of the GEM-NEMO global coupled model. It is anticipated that this model will join the NMME operational system in 2018. The atmospheric model, the Global Environmental Model (GEM), has a horizontal resolution of approximately 1.4° x 1.4°, and 79 vertical levels. During the discussion, a question was raised about the choice to invest in more vertical levels over increasing the horizontal resolution further. The ocean model, NEMO, is coupled with the sea ice model, CICE. Using the standard hindcast period, 1980-2010, and 10 ensemble members, model skill has been assessed, and compared to the CanCM3 and CanCM4 models, both individually and in all combinations of multi-model ensembles. Preliminary results find that the GEM-NEMO is the highest-scoring individual model, and the GEM-NEMO + CanCM4 combination is the most skillful MME. The addition of CanCM3 results in negligible additional skill, or slightly decreased skill. Both the MJO and NAO forecasting skill is improved in GEM-NEMO. (EMILY BECKER)

Tracking Progresses on NOAA's MAPP-CTB Projects

October 24, 2017  NOAA's operational climate monitoring and prediction products provide the public with critical information about environmental conditions for better preparedness and improved resiliency. NOAA's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections - Climate Test Bed (MAPP-CTB) projects support transition of research advances from external community to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to accelerate the improvement of operational climate monitoring and predictions. Three focus areas are 1) testing the performance of model components and schemes of methodologies, 2) testing experimental prediction methodologies and products, and 3) testing a multi-model subseasonal climate prediction system via model selection, system optimization and products evaluation. By tracking progresses on twenty-three MAPP-CTB projects, a poster for the 42nd NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop on Accelerating Transition of Research Advances into Improved Operational Capabilities highlights major achievements to date and assesses the Transition Readiness Level (TRL) by measurements of benchmarks and deliverables following NOAA Administrative Order (NAO).  October 24, 2017  NOAA's operational climate monitoring and prediction products provide the public with critical information about environmental conditions for better preparedness and improved resiliency. NOAA's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections - Climate Test Bed (MAPP-CTB) projects support transition of research advances from external community to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to accelerate the improvement of operational climate monitoring and predictions. Three focus areas are 1) testing the performance of model components and schemes of methodologies, 2) testing experimental prediction methodologies and products, and 3) testing a multi-model subseasonal climate prediction system via model selection, system optimization and products evaluation. By tracking progresses on twenty-three MAPP-CTB projects, a poster for the 42nd NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop on Accelerating Transition of Research Advances into Improved Operational Capabilities highlights major achievements to date and assesses the Transition Readiness Level (TRL) by measurements of benchmarks and deliverables following NOAA Administrative Order (NAO).