Key Messages from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Issued August 17, 2026 and Updated August 18, 2026
Extreme Heat and Rapid Onset Drought over the Southern U.S.
(a) Chances of above-normal temperatures exceed 60% across much of the southern U.S. (Aug 26-Sep 1) due to a persistent, strong mid-level ridge.
(b) A high risk of extreme heat covers parts of the Desert Southwest, Southern Rockies, Southern and Central Plains, and adjacent areas of the Mississippi Valley (Aug 26-28), with a moderate risk stretching from the Southwest and Rockies to the Lower Mississippi Valley through Aug 30, and a slight risk from California and the Great Basin to the coastal Southeast through Sep 1.
Temperatures in high risk areas could reach 100 deg F with heat indices over 110 deg F. Locations within high and moderate risk areas may approach or break temperature records during the day and overnight.
High heat and humidity significantly increase the risk of heat-related illness; limit strenuous outdoor activity, prioritize shade or air conditioning, and stay hydrated.
(b) Above-normal temperatures and persistent dry conditions support a Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for portions of the Central and Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.