Key Messages from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Issued July 3, 2026 and Updated July 5, 2026

Elevated risk of extreme heat for much of the Western and Central U.S. into mid and late July

  • Mid-level high pressure is forecast to amplify across the western and central CONUS late next week, favoring elevated risks of extreme heat (a) over most of the western half of the CONUS into the Great Plains.

  • Moderate Risk (40-60% chance) of extreme heat 7/13-7/17: Indicated for parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, Southern Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Low elevation Intermountain areas into the Great Plains may experience temperatures upwards of 95-100+ deg F, and above 110 deg F across the climatologically hottest areas of the Southwest and southern California.

  • Slight Risk (20-40% chance) of extreme heat 7/13-7/19: Extends across much of the western CONUS (excluding the immediate coast and Pacific Northwest) and into the Northern Plains and Mississippi Valley where temperatures may exceed 90 deg F. Increased humidity across the eastern Plains and adjacent Mississippi Valley favors heat index values potentially higher than 105 deg F.

  • The CPC Week 3-4 temperature outlook (b) depicts increased chances of above-normal temperatures persisting across the western CONUS through mid to late July, with the highest probabilities (60-70%) focused across portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest.

  • High humidity and temperatures significantly increase the risk of heat-related illness. Limit strenuous outdoor time, prioritize shade or AC, hydrate, and wear light clothing.