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HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Teleconnections > North Atlantic Oscillation > MRF Ensemble Outlooks
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The indices are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated and they are
normalized by standard deviation using a 1950-2000 base period. A 3-day running mean is applied to the forecasted indices.
The values at the upper left and right corners of each figure indicate the mean value of the NAO index and the correlation coefficients between the observations and the forecasts, respectively.
The first panel shows the observed NAO index (black line) plus forecasted NAO indices from each of the 11 MRF ensemble members starting from the last day of the observations (red lines).
The ensemble mean forecasts of the NAO index are obtained by averaging the 11 MRF ensemble members (blue lines), and the observed NAO index (black line) is superimposed on each panel for comparison. For the forecasted indices (lower 3 panels), the yellow shading shows the ensemble mean plus and minus one standard deviation among the ensemble members, while the upper and lower red lines show the range of the forecasted indices, respectively.
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