Verification for Monthly Mean SST from CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts
·
The ensemble mean 40 members forecasts from the
latest 10 days in the initial month;
·
Forecast monthly anomalies from 1999-2010
climatology for initial condition before April 2021 and 1991-2020 climatology
from initial condition at and after April 2021;
·
SST observation from OIv2.1;
·
TempSubsurface and Taux observation from CFSr;
·
Observation monthly anomalies from 1991-2020
climatology;
Verification month |
Nino3.4SST |
Nino3.4SST corrected |
Global SST |
Global SST bias |
Taux |
Taux bias |
Subsurface Teq |
Subsurface Teq bias |
U850 impact(total) |
U850 impact(intra-seasonal) |
Feb2025 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2025 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2024 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2023 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2022 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2021 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2020 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2019 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2018 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2017 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jun2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
May2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Apr2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Mar2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Feb2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jan2016 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Dec2015 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Nov2015 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Oct2015 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sep2015 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Aug2015 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Jul2015 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |