Latest Monthly Assessment - Since the May 2024 Monthly Drought Outlook released on April 30, 2024, drought has continued to slowly improve across much of the U.S. The exceptions are across interior portions of the Intermountain West, the western Central Plains, southern Texas, and parts of the Florida Peninsula, where precipitation deficits have continued to mount and, in the case of southern Texas and Florida, excessive heat has exacerbated the dryness in recent weeks.



Looking forward to June 2024, drought persistence is favored across the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS), the western and eastern Gulf Coast, and the Upper Midwest. Warmer and drier than normal conditions are predominantly favored across the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for drought conditions to develop across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and the Four Corners region. Drought is also favored to develop in southern Texas, supported by antecedent dryness and warmer and drier than normal conditions forecast throughout much of June. Some offsetting signals across the north-central CONUS favor persistence of long-term drought conditions in localized portions of the Upper Midwest. Climatology and favorable precipitation outlooks favor improving drought conditions across the Central Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Uncertainty is greatest across the Upper Midwest and in the Florida Peninsula due to the risk of clustered thunderstorm and tropical activity, respectively, in addition to this being a wetter time of year climatologically for both areas. Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought-free by the end of June 2024. In Hawaii, drought persistence is favored, with the potential for drought development in areas currently experiencing abnormal dryness (D0 as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor).



Forecaster: Adam Hartman



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion