In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near average over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values ranged from -0.1°C to +0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface ocean temperatures were near-to-above average (averaged across 180°-100°W, [Fig. 3]), with above-average subsurface ocean temperatures at depth in the central and western Pacific [Fig. 4]. For the month, low-level winds were easterly over the east-central Pacific, while upper-level winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflected ENSO-neutral.

The IRI and North American Multi-Model Ensemble predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is most likely through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26 [Fig. 6]. The forecast team also continuously favors ENSO-neutral through early 2026, with smaller chances that La Niña could form during winter 2025-26. In summary, ENSO-Neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 July 2025.

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