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Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project

U.S. NOAA/NCEP GFS FORECASTS

SOUTHERN AFRICA


Tropical Cyclone Indlala Tropical Cyclones Favio and Gamede

CURRENT 00Z GFS FORECAST RUN

Surface and Column Parameters

Past 6 days 6-hourly GDAS Near Surface Analysis
24 Hour Total Precipitation 6hourly Precipitation - 4 Panel
6hourly Precipitation - Single Panel MSLP and Surface Winds
Column Precipitable Water 1000mb-500mb Height Thickness
180-0 mb above gnd CAPE 180-0 mb above gnd CIN
Minimum 2m-Temperature Maximum 2m-Temperature
Lifted Index Surface Temperature
K-Index Total Totals Index

GFS SkewT-LogP plots for selected locations

Gaborone(Botswana) Francictown(Botswana) Antananarivo(Madagascar)
Antsiranana(Madagascar) Maputo(Mozambique) Beira(Mozambique)
Dar es Salaam(Tanzania) Mtwara(Tanzania) Harare(Zimbabwe)
Bulawayo(Zimbabwe)

GDAS and GFS PRESSURE LEVEL VARIABLES

Variables / Levels 925hpa 850hpa 700hpa 500hpa 300hpa 200hpa
Winds GDAS    GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS
Temperature GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS
Heights GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS
Rel.Humidity GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS
Rel.Vorticity GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS
Vert.Velocity GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS
Theta-E GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS GDAS   GFS

NCEP ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

500mb Spaghetti plots (5500, 5670 isolines) 500mb Spaghetti plots (5700, 5870 isolines)
Spaghetti Diagrams of 20kt Isoline (10m wind) Spaghetti Diagrams of 30kt Isoline (10m wind)
Probability of 10m-wind speed exceeding 20kts Probability of 10m-wind speed exceeding 30kts
Spaghetti Diagrams of 50mm/6hr Precip Isoline

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS

Thresholds for 6hr Total Precip
1mm in 6h 5mm in 6h 10mm in 6h 15mm in 6h 20mm in 6h 25mm in 6h
30mm in 6h 40mm in 6h 50mm in 6h 75mm in 6h 100mm in 6h
Thresholds for 24hr Total Precip
5mm in 24h 10mm in 24h 15mm in 24h 20mm in 24h 25mm in 24h
30mm in 24h 40mm in 24h 50mm in 24h 75mm in 24h 100mm in 24h



Other Forecast Runs including Previous Forecasts
Current Day 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z


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